GoDaddy (GDDY)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-15

$105.96-1.24%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge GoDaddy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.19 → 9.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow near $1.8 billion in 2026	Free cash flow is strong, expected near $1.8 billion.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $1.6 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $437.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.8 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026437,400,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Maintained free cash flow target in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management reaffirmed a 2026 target of approximately $1.8 billion, up from $1.6 billion in 2025. Actual free cash flow for first half 2026 was $917.1 million, indicating trajectory consistent with target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Management maintains stable guidance and execution	A supporting condition in GoDaddy's published investment case. The stated target is No further guidance cuts or major negative revisions.	Under Pressure	guidance is cut again or materially lowered	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
NEBITDA margin over 33% in 2026	Profit margins are improving, targeting over 33% NEBITDA margin.	Intact	NEBITDA margin falls below 31% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reaffirmed NEBITDA margin target over 33% in 5 of last 5 quarters. Actual NEBITDA margin improved from 31.3% in 2025-Q2 to 33.4% in 2026-Q2, consistent with management's margin expansion goal and delivering on operational discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue grows to about $5.24 billion in 2026	GoDaddy grows revenue about 6% yearly, aiming for $5.24 billion in 2026.	Intact	revenue falls below $5.0 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.298B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.24 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261,298,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b73e51a3-1b58-4aca-a3af-42cd15cd3d0d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reaffirmed revenue guidance in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management narrowed 2026 revenue guidance to $5.215-$5.255 billion, up from 2025 guidance of $4.89-$4.94 billion and actual 2025 revenue of $4.951 billion. This reflects consistent delivery and upward trajectory aligned with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.18

$8.98 → $9.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.51B

$5.55B → $5.51B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.98	$5,548,503,741	11 / 14
2026-07-25	$8.97	$5,547,847,890	13 / 17
2026-07-26	$8.97	$5,547,847,890	13 / 17
2026-07-27	$8.97	$5,547,841,464	11 / 14
2026-07-28	$8.97	$5,547,847,890	13 / 17
2026-07-29	$8.97	$5,547,839,130	13 / 17
2026-07-30	$8.97	$5,547,839,130	13 / 17
2026-07-31	$9.02	$5,545,254,065	11 / 14
2026-08-01	$9.02	$5,545,254,065	11 / 14
2026-08-02	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-03	$8.98	$5,533,070,830	14 / 17
2026-08-04	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-05	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-06	$8.94	$5,520,809,460	14 / 17
2026-08-07	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-08	$9.24	$5,517,544,760	13 / 17
2026-08-09	$9.24	$5,517,544,760	13 / 17
2026-08-10	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-12	$9.24	$5,517,544,760	13 / 17
2026-08-13	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-14	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-15	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-16	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-17	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-18	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-19	$9.27	$5,533,263,597	11 / 14
2026-08-20	$9.24	$5,517,558,051	11 / 14
2026-08-21	$9.24	$5,517,558,051	11 / 14
2026-08-22	$9.24	$5,517,558,051	11 / 14
2026-08-23	$9.24	$5,517,558,051	11 / 14
2026-08-24	$9.24	$5,517,558,051	11 / 14
2026-08-25	$9.24	$5,517,558,051	11 / 14
2026-08-26	$9.24	$5,517,558,051	11 / 14
2026-08-27	$9.24	$5,517,558,051	11 / 14
2026-08-28	$9.24	$5,517,558,051	11 / 14
2026-08-29	$9.19	$5,513,040,404	11 / 14
2026-08-30	$9.19	$5,513,040,404	11 / 14
2026-08-31	$9.19	$5,513,040,404	11 / 14
2026-09-01	$9.19	$5,513,040,404	11 / 14
2026-09-02	$9.19	$5,513,040,404	11 / 14
2026-09-03	$9.19	$5,513,040,404	11 / 14
2026-09-04	$9.19	$5,513,040,404	11 / 14
2026-09-05	$9.19	$5,513,040,404	11 / 14
2026-09-06	$9.19	$5,513,040,404	11 / 14
2026-09-07	$9.19	$5,513,048,922	11 / 14
2026-09-08	$9.19	$5,513,048,922	11 / 14
2026-09-09	$9.19	$5,513,048,922	11 / 14
2026-09-10	$9.19	$5,513,048,922	11 / 14
2026-09-11	$9.19	$5,513,048,922	11 / 14
2026-09-12	$9.19	$5,513,048,922	11 / 14
2026-09-13	$9.19	$5,513,048,922	11 / 14
2026-09-14	$9.19	$5,513,048,922	11 / 14
2026-09-15	$9.19	$5,513,048,922	11 / 14
2026-09-16	$9.19	$5,513,048,922	11 / 14
2026-09-17	$9.19	$5,513,031,275	11 / 14
2026-09-18	$9.19	$5,513,031,275	11 / 14
2026-09-19	$9.19	$5,513,031,275	11 / 14
2026-09-20	$9.19	$5,513,031,275	11 / 14
2026-09-21	$9.19	$5,513,031,275	11 / 14
2026-09-22	$9.19	$5,513,048,922	11 / 14
2026-09-23	$9.19	$5,513,047,446	11 / 14
2026-09-24	$9.19	$5,513,047,446	11 / 14
2026-09-25	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 14
2026-09-26	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 14
2026-09-27	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 14
2026-09-28	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 14
2026-09-29	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 14
2026-09-30	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 14
2026-10-01	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-02	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-03	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-04	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-05	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-06	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-07	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-08	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-09	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-10	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-11	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-12	$9.19	$5,513,068,087	11 / 15
2026-10-13	$9.18	$5,511,144,557	11 / 15
2026-10-14	$9.18	$5,511,144,557	12 / 15
2026-10-15	$9.18	$5,511,144,557	12 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	8	0
2026-06-01	8	8	0
2026-07-01	10	9	0
2026-08-01	10	9	1
2026-09-01	8	9	1
2026-10-01	8	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 11

$95.00New observation · no comparable prior

Robert W. BairdSep 25

$120.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$66.00$132.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow near $1.8 billion in 2026Free cash flow: $437.4M
Management maintains stable guidance and executionPublished status: Under Pressure
NEBITDA margin over 33% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows to about $5.24 billion in 2026Revenue: $1.298B

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

GoDaddy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a long-term thesis on a stable management team navigating a fragile earnings landscape. GDDY is positioned as a tech company with a focus on AI transformation, but its execution quality remains a concern.

What's priced into GoDaddy

The market currently prices GDDY as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a negative expectations gap. However, the valuation has recently fallen, indicating that some fragility in earnings execution is already considered.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has reaffirmed revenue and free cash flow targets, showing a consistent delivery trajectory. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.

What GoDaddy hinges on

The thesis hinges on external factors like potential Fed rate cuts and the performance of sector leaders like Microsoft and Oracle. Additionally, any guidance cuts from GDDY could negatively affect market perception.