General Dynamics (GD)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-15

$344.23+2.14%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge General Dynamics’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

18.59 → 18.63 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash from operating activities to positive levels	A supporting condition in General Dynamics's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operating activities positive next 4 quarters.	Intact	Cash from operating activities remains negative over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $1.88B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operating activities positive next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20261,880,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 5, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Meet EPS guidance of $4.1 per share in fiscal 2026	EPS guidance for 2026 is $4.1 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.1 per share in FY26	Diluted EPS: $4.25 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.1 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20264.25 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 5, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 5% annually	A primary condition in General Dynamics's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.9% YoY.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below ~4.9% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$18.63

$18.26 → $18.63 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$58.75B

$57.84B → $58.75B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$18.26	$57,840,863,980	19 / 23
2026-07-25	$18.26	$57,840,863,980	19 / 23
2026-07-26	$18.26	$57,840,863,980	19 / 23
2026-07-27	$18.30	$57,948,370,212	15 / 17
2026-07-28	$18.26	$57,840,863,980	19 / 23
2026-07-29	$18.30	$57,948,370,210	15 / 17
2026-07-30	$18.26	$57,840,863,980	19 / 23
2026-07-31	$18.48	$58,424,687,373	15 / 17
2026-08-01	$18.48	$58,424,687,373	15 / 17
2026-08-02	$18.48	$58,424,687,373	16 / 17
2026-08-03	$18.50	$58,339,794,100	20 / 23
2026-08-04	$18.50	$58,339,794,100	20 / 23
2026-08-05	$18.53	$58,432,910,550	20 / 23
2026-08-06	$18.48	$58,424,687,373	16 / 17
2026-08-07	$18.51	$58,484,823,984	16 / 17
2026-08-08	$18.54	$58,437,301,860	20 / 23
2026-08-09	$18.54	$58,437,301,860	20 / 23
2026-08-10	$18.54	$58,437,301,860	20 / 23
2026-08-12	$18.51	$58,484,823,984	16 / 17
2026-08-13	$18.51	$58,484,823,984	16 / 17
2026-08-14	$18.51	$58,484,823,984	16 / 17
2026-08-15	$18.51	$58,484,823,984	16 / 17
2026-08-16	$18.51	$58,484,823,984	16 / 17
2026-08-17	$18.51	$58,484,823,984	16 / 17
2026-08-18	$18.51	$58,484,823,984	16 / 17
2026-08-19	$18.51	$58,484,823,984	16 / 17
2026-08-20	$18.56	$58,585,782,820	16 / 17
2026-08-21	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-08-22	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-08-23	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-08-24	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-08-25	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-08-26	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-08-27	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-08-28	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-08-29	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-08-30	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-08-31	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-09-01	$18.59	$58,680,370,060	16 / 17
2026-09-02	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-03	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-04	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-05	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-06	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-07	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-08	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-09	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-10	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-11	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-12	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-13	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-14	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-15	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-16	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-17	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-18	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-19	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-20	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-21	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-22	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-23	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-24	$18.59	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-25	$18.61	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-26	$18.61	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-27	$18.61	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-28	$18.61	$58,680,363,242	16 / 17
2026-09-29	$18.62	$58,683,185,001	16 / 17
2026-09-30	$18.62	$58,683,185,001	16 / 17
2026-10-01	$18.62	$58,683,185,001	16 / 17
2026-10-02	$18.62	$58,683,185,001	16 / 17
2026-10-03	$18.62	$58,683,185,001	16 / 17
2026-10-04	$18.62	$58,683,185,001	16 / 17
2026-10-05	$18.62	$58,683,185,001	16 / 17
2026-10-06	$18.62	$58,704,053,183	16 / 17
2026-10-07	$18.62	$58,704,053,183	16 / 17
2026-10-08	$18.63	$58,729,235,001	16 / 17
2026-10-09	$18.63	$58,741,633,359	16 / 17
2026-10-10	$18.63	$58,753,269,723	15 / 17
2026-10-11	$18.63	$58,753,269,723	15 / 17
2026-10-12	$18.63	$58,753,269,723	15 / 17
2026-10-13	$18.63	$58,753,269,723	15 / 17
2026-10-14	$18.63	$58,753,271,832	15 / 17
2026-10-15	$18.63	$58,753,271,832	15 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	10	1
2026-06-01	14	10	1
2026-07-01	13	10	1
2026-08-01	13	10	1
2026-09-01	14	10	1
2026-10-01	14	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Jul 30

$410.00 → $360.00-12.2%

BernsteinOct 14 · prior Sep 23

$407.00 → $365.00-10.3%

$0$225.50$451.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash from operating activities to positive levelsCash from operations: $1.88B
Meet EPS guidance of $4.1 per share in fiscal 2026Diluted EPS: $4.25 per share
Sustain revenue growth near 5% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 23, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

General Dynamics outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and strong cash flow. The current thesis state is stable, supported by consistent management priorities and recent financial performance.

What's priced into General Dynamics

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with GD being considered cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully reflect the potential for growth and stability.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain steady, with management successfully driving revenue growth and maintaining strong cash flow. Recent results show positive trends, although there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance.

What General Dynamics hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. Their ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations will significantly influence GD's trajectory in the coming months.