FUTU HOLDINGS LTD (FUTU)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-16

$105.48-3.93%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge FUTU HOLDINGS LTD’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

98.76 → 98.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Malaysia business reaches break-even in 6 to 12 months	The company expects Malaysia to break even in 6 to 12 months.	Intact	Malaysia segment remains unprofitable after 12 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Add 800,000 net new funding accounts in 2026	It aims for 800,000 new accounts in 2026.	Intact	Net new accounts fall below 800,000 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage regulatory challenges in China without profit decline	A primary condition in FUTU HOLDINGS LTD's published investment case. The stated target is No material profit decline from regulatory issues.	Improving	Profit declines materially due to regulatory actions in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain positive revenue growth	A primary condition in FUTU HOLDINGS LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >0% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26	Revenue growth: 35.71% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 20, 202635.711903 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$98.71

$91.20 → $98.71 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$27.45B

$24.76B → $27.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$91.20	$24,762,469,178	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$91.20	$24,762,469,178	8 / 9
2026-07-26	$91.20	$24,762,469,178	8 / 9
2026-07-27	$91.20	$24,762,469,178	8 / 9
2026-07-28	$91.20	$24,762,469,178	8 / 9
2026-07-29	$91.20	$24,762,469,178	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$91.20	$24,762,469,178	8 / 9
2026-07-31	$91.15	$24,806,518,008	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$91.15	$24,806,518,008	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$91.15	$24,806,518,008	8 / 9
2026-08-03	$91.16	$24,808,464,075	8 / 9
2026-08-04	$91.16	$24,808,464,075	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$95.86	$25,254,532,580	11 / 12
2026-08-06	$95.86	$25,254,532,580	11 / 12
2026-08-07	$91.16	$24,808,464,075	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$95.86	$25,254,532,580	11 / 12
2026-08-09	$95.86	$25,254,532,580	11 / 12
2026-08-10	$95.86	$25,254,532,580	11 / 12
2026-08-12	$91.16	$24,808,464,075	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$91.16	$24,808,464,075	8 / 9
2026-08-14	$91.16	$24,808,464,075	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$91.16	$24,808,464,075	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$91.16	$24,808,464,075	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$91.16	$24,808,464,075	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$91.16	$24,808,464,075	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$91.16	$24,808,464,075	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$90.76	$24,782,615,107	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$91.33	$24,947,936,214	9 / 9
2026-08-22	$93.31	$25,683,618,162	9 / 9
2026-08-23	$95.97	$26,477,755,676	9 / 9
2026-08-24	$96.01	$26,488,142,368	9 / 9
2026-08-25	$96.20	$26,651,666,419	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$96.24	$26,662,117,233	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$96.24	$26,662,117,233	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$96.24	$26,662,117,233	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$98.02	$27,024,699,726	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$98.01	$27,022,580,806	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$98.01	$27,022,580,806	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$98.00	$27,157,873,612	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$98.02	$27,162,133,002	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$97.97	$27,157,144,998	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$97.99	$27,163,535,917	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$98.64	$27,308,125,599	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$98.64	$27,308,125,599	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$98.64	$27,308,125,599	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$98.79	$27,368,565,505	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$98.81	$27,372,858,614	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$98.78	$27,366,418,951	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$98.77	$27,364,272,397	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$98.77	$27,364,272,397	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$98.77	$27,364,272,397	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$98.77	$27,364,272,397	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$98.77	$27,362,125,843	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$98.76	$27,457,236,385	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$98.70	$27,452,928,016	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$98.70	$27,452,928,016	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$98.70	$27,452,928,016	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$98.69	$27,448,619,647	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$98.73	$27,459,403,630	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$98.70	$27,451,296,981	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$98.73	$27,459,773,014	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$98.73	$27,459,773,014	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$99.79	$27,460,188,833	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$99.79	$27,460,363,891	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$99.79	$27,460,363,891	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$99.80	$27,463,171,818	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$99.80	$27,462,783,535	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$99.78	$27,458,952,299	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$99.77	$27,456,430,311	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$99.77	$27,455,557,184	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$99.77	$27,455,956,128	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$99.77	$27,455,956,128	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$99.77	$27,456,794,843	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$99.77	$27,456,794,843	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$99.77	$27,454,639,848	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$99.76	$27,452,484,853	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$99.76	$27,452,484,853	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$99.76	$27,452,484,853	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$98.69	$27,450,329,858	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$98.70	$27,451,191,700	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$98.71	$27,453,773,636	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$98.71	$27,453,890,268	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$98.70	$27,453,070,493	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$98.71	$27,454,522,447	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	20	2
2026-06-01	17	2
2026-07-01	16	2
2026-08-01	16	2
2026-09-01	16	2
2026-10-01	16	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Malaysia business reaches break-even in 6 to 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Add 800,000 net new funding accounts in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Manage regulatory challenges in China without profit declineDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain positive revenue growthRevenue growth: 35.71%

Next proof point

Nov 17, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-54.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

FUTU HOLDINGS LTD outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is in the financial sector and currently shows signs of fragility. The thesis state is insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history, making it difficult to gauge future outcomes.

What's priced into FUTU HOLDINGS LTD

The market currently reflects low fragility, indicating that it does not expect significant disruptions. The valuation has shifted to 'inexpensive', suggesting that expectations may not be overly optimistic.

What the fundamentals likely do

There is a high probability of a near-term earnings miss, as FUTU has struggled with performance in recent quarters. This could negatively impact its fundamentals if the trend continues.

What FUTU HOLDINGS LTD hinges on

The future performance of FUTU will depend on broader sector trends, particularly the earnings results of major financial firms like MS, GS, and SCHW. If these firms continue to perform well, it could provide a tailwind for FUTU; however, any misses could lead to further challenges.