Fortinet (FTNT)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-15

$169.13-7.03%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Fortinet’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.77 → 3.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 25 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 25 to 25; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS reaches about $3.13	A primary condition in Fortinet's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.13.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $2.68 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.82 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.13. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.82 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5f9c9c0d-6cbe-4af8-9790-1e4ca96b38aa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Diluted non-GAAP EPS grew from $0.64 in 2025-Q2 to $0.82 in 2026-Q2, with full year 2026 guidance raised to $3.41-$3.47 from $2.47-$2.53 in 2025. The trajectory shows consistent progress toward the EPS target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain strong operating cash flow near $1.08 billion per quarter	The company keeps strong cash flow, with $1.08 billion in operating cash flow last quarter.	Intact	Operating cash flow falls below $900 million per quarter	Cash from operations: $1.044B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.0B per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261,043,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating cash flow rose from $620 million in 2025-Q4 to $1.04 billion in 2026-Q2, demonstrating strong cash generation supporting growth and capital needs. The trajectory is delivering sustained cash flow strength. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Annual revenue reaches about $7.79 billion	Fortinet grows revenue about 14% a year to nearly $7.8 billion in 2026.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $7.4 billion in FY26	Revenue: $2.048B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$7.79B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20262,047,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5f9c9c0d-6cbe-4af8-9790-1e4ca96b38aa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $6.72 billion in fiscal year 2025 to an expected $8.02-$8.18 billion in 2026, with quarterly revenue increasing from $1.63 billion in 2025-Q2 to $2.05 billion in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated revenue targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.78

$3.43 → $3.78 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$9.04B

$8.64B → $9.04B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.43	$8,643,357,630	42 / 42
2026-07-25	$3.43	$8,643,998,110	42 / 42
2026-07-26	$3.43	$8,643,998,110	42 / 42
2026-07-27	$3.42	$8,641,842,275	25 / 33
2026-07-28	$3.42	$8,641,842,275	25 / 33
2026-07-29	$3.42	$8,637,974,776	25 / 33
2026-07-30	$3.43	$8,639,314,280	43 / 43
2026-07-31	$3.71	$8,963,644,400	43 / 43
2026-08-01	$3.71	$8,963,255,856	25 / 33
2026-08-02	$3.75	$8,997,517,740	43 / 43
2026-08-03	$3.75	$8,997,517,740	43 / 43
2026-08-04	$3.75	$8,997,517,740	43 / 43
2026-08-05	$3.74	$9,001,782,189	25 / 33
2026-08-06	$3.75	$8,997,517,740	43 / 43
2026-08-07	$3.74	$9,001,782,189	25 / 33
2026-08-08	$3.76	$9,009,378,200	43 / 43
2026-08-09	$3.76	$9,009,378,200	43 / 43
2026-08-10	$3.76	$9,009,378,200	43 / 43
2026-08-12	$3.74	$9,001,782,189	25 / 33
2026-08-13	$3.74	$9,001,782,189	25 / 33
2026-08-14	$3.74	$9,001,782,189	25 / 33
2026-08-15	$3.74	$9,001,782,189	25 / 33
2026-08-16	$3.74	$9,001,782,189	25 / 33
2026-08-17	$3.74	$9,001,782,189	25 / 33
2026-08-18	$3.74	$9,001,782,189	25 / 33
2026-08-19	$3.74	$9,001,782,189	25 / 33
2026-08-20	$3.77	$9,032,192,576	26 / 33
2026-08-21	$3.77	$9,032,192,576	26 / 33
2026-08-22	$3.77	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-08-23	$3.77	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-08-24	$3.77	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-08-25	$3.77	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-08-26	$3.77	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-08-27	$3.77	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-08-28	$3.77	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-08-29	$3.78	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-08-30	$3.78	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-08-31	$3.78	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-09-01	$3.78	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-09-02	$3.78	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-09-03	$3.78	$9,032,191,310	26 / 33
2026-09-04	$3.78	$9,032,191,310	25 / 33
2026-09-05	$3.78	$9,032,191,310	25 / 33
2026-09-06	$3.78	$9,032,191,310	25 / 32
2026-09-07	$3.78	$9,032,191,310	25 / 32
2026-09-08	$3.78	$9,032,191,310	25 / 32
2026-09-09	$3.78	$9,032,561,527	25 / 32
2026-09-10	$3.78	$9,032,561,527	25 / 32
2026-09-11	$3.78	$9,032,561,527	25 / 32
2026-09-12	$3.77	$9,030,377,099	25 / 32
2026-09-13	$3.77	$9,030,377,099	25 / 32
2026-09-14	$3.77	$9,030,377,099	25 / 32
2026-09-15	$3.77	$9,030,377,099	25 / 32
2026-09-16	$3.77	$9,030,377,099	25 / 32
2026-09-17	$3.77	$9,030,377,099	25 / 32
2026-09-18	$3.77	$9,035,318,459	25 / 32
2026-09-19	$3.77	$9,035,318,459	25 / 32
2026-09-20	$3.77	$9,035,318,459	25 / 32
2026-09-21	$3.77	$9,035,318,459	25 / 32
2026-09-22	$3.77	$9,035,195,959	25 / 32
2026-09-23	$3.77	$9,035,195,959	25 / 32
2026-09-24	$3.77	$9,035,195,959	25 / 32
2026-09-25	$3.77	$9,035,195,959	25 / 32
2026-09-26	$3.77	$9,035,195,959	25 / 32
2026-09-27	$3.77	$9,035,195,959	25 / 32
2026-09-28	$3.77	$9,035,195,959	25 / 32
2026-09-29	$3.77	$9,035,195,959	25 / 32
2026-09-30	$3.77	$9,035,195,959	25 / 32
2026-10-01	$3.77	$9,035,188,689	25 / 32
2026-10-02	$3.77	$9,035,188,689	25 / 32
2026-10-03	$3.78	$9,035,188,689	25 / 32
2026-10-04	$3.78	$9,035,188,689	25 / 32
2026-10-05	$3.78	$9,035,188,689	25 / 32
2026-10-06	$3.78	$9,035,195,959	25 / 32
2026-10-07	$3.77	$9,035,195,844	25 / 32
2026-10-08	$3.77	$9,035,195,844	25 / 32
2026-10-09	$3.77	$9,035,195,844	25 / 32
2026-10-10	$3.77	$9,036,044,726	25 / 32
2026-10-11	$3.77	$9,036,044,726	25 / 32
2026-10-12	$3.77	$9,036,044,726	25 / 32
2026-10-13	$3.77	$9,036,044,726	25 / 32
2026-10-14	$3.78	$9,037,020,336	25 / 32
2026-10-15	$3.78	$9,037,020,336	25 / 32

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	30	4
2026-06-01	11	29	6
2026-07-01	11	29	6
2026-08-01	11	29	4
2026-09-01	11	31	4
2026-10-01	9	31	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 31 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15 · prior Jul 30

$180.00 → $200.00+11.1%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior Jul 15

$125.00 → $160.00+28.0%

RBC CapitalOct 12 · prior Jul 30

$185.00 → $205.00+10.8%

BarclaysOct 12 · prior Jul 30

$190.00 → $210.00+10.5%

BernsteinSep 17

$145.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$115.50$231.00

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS reaches about $3.13Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain strong operating cash flow near $1.08 billion per quarterCash from operations: $1.044B
Annual revenue reaches about $7.79 billionRevenue: $2.048B

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Fortinet outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder in the tech sector. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's consistent execution of growth targets.

What's priced into Fortinet

The market currently assumes an expensive valuation for FTNT, with a premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors are pricing in some level of future growth, but not all potential upside.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue showing strong growth, as management is on track to meet revenue and earnings targets. The near-term risk is low, but past performance suggests caution due to the potential for guidance cuts.

What Fortinet hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector leaders like Microsoft and Oracle. Positive earnings from these companies could provide momentum for FTNT.