Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR)

Q: What's priced into Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) stock?

The valuation reflects a durable premium of 1.26 versus peers, while the model shows a negative expectations gap of 0.14. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, but this premium leaves the thesis dependent on continued delivery.

Q: What does the Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) outlook hinge on?

Over the next few quarters, a reversal of the raised guidance would damage confidence as well as lower expectations. Sector bellwethers’ results and guidance are another swing factor, while sustained revenue growth, improved profitability, and stable cash generation support the multi-year thesis.

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$84.34-1.96%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Frontdoor, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.19 → 5.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	455M
EPS	—	0.247
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.19B–$2.21B	2.2B
EPS	—	4.684
Capital expenditure	About $30M	—
EBITDA	$585M–$600Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.32B
EPS	—	5.126

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share repurchases continue at about $60 million per quarter	A supporting condition in Frontdoor, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $60 million per quarter.	Intact	Share repurchases drop below $60 million per quarter	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 5 quarters. Share repurchases totaled $181 million year-to-date through July 2026, up over 21% from the prior year. Prior year full-year repurchases were $280 million. Management is delivering increased capital return to shareholders through accelerated share repurchases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating cash flow stays strong; capex $30-$35 million in 2026	Cash flow stays strong with capital spending controlled.	Intact	Capex rises above $35 million or cash flow falls below Q1 levels	Capital expenditures: $6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex <= $35 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20266,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Net cash from operating activities was $245 million for the first half of 2026, comparable to $251 million in first half 2025. Capital expenditures guidance remains disciplined at approximately $30 million annually. Management is maintaining capital discipline while generating strong operating cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Adjusted EBITDA about $572.5 million in 2026	Profit rises with adjusted EBITDA near $573 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $553 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $199 million in 2025-Q2 to $220 million in 2026-Q2, a 10% increase year-over-year. Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $585 million to $600 million from $553 million in 2025. Management is delivering improved profitability through operational discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches about $2.155 billion in 2026	Frontdoor grows revenue about 6% yearly, hitting $2.15 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.075 billion in FY26	Revenue: $645M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.155 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026645,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a2057dbe-8637-4451-b688-b27ee9292dea. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $426 million in 2025-Q1 to $645 million in 2026-Q2, a 5% increase year-over-year in the latest quarter. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $2.19 billion to $2.21 billion from $2.09 billion in 2025. Management is delivering on revenue growth through price and volume increases and expansion in non-warranty services. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.13

Unavailable → $5.13 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.32B

$2.31B → $2.32B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,314,766,857	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$2,315,228,000	4 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,314,766,857	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,315,228,000	4 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$2,315,228,000	4 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$2,314,766,857	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$2,315,228,000	4 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,318,261,330	4 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,318,261,330	4 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,318,261,330	4 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,331,746,170	4 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,331,746,170	4 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$2,331,746,170	4 / 6
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$2,333,912,830	4 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$2,333,921,167	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$2,333,921,167	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$2,333,921,167	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$2,333,921,167	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$2,333,921,167	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$2,334,244,284	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$2,334,244,284	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$2,334,244,284	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$2,334,244,284	4 / 5
2026-08-29	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	3
2026-06-01	4	3
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	4	3
2026-09-01	4	3
2026-10-01	4	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 12

$81.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$44.55$89.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share repurchases continue at about $60 million per quarterRequired source inputs unavailable
Operating cash flow stays strong; capex $30-$35 million in 2026Capital expenditures: $6M
Adjusted EBITDA about $572.5 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches about $2.155 billion in 2026Revenue: $645M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Frontdoor, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FTDR is a growth business with robust earnings quality and stable management, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent results are neutral and below the industry cohort, despite management delivering on several stated priorities.

What's priced into Frontdoor, Inc.

The valuation reflects a durable premium of 1.26 versus peers, while the model shows a negative expectations gap of 0.14. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, but this premium leaves the thesis dependent on continued delivery.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth have continued, and 2026 guidance was raised; operating cash flow was roughly comparable with the prior-year first half. Risk is elevated, with a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses, while two CFO transitions are noted in recent events.

What Frontdoor, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, a reversal of the raised guidance would damage confidence as well as lower expectations. Sector bellwethers’ results and guidance are another swing factor, while sustained revenue growth, improved profitability, and stable cash generation support the multi-year thesis.

Bottom line

Over a 1-3 year horizon, FTDR’s thesis has support from revenue and profit growth, but elevated risk and relative performance below its industry cohort remain important checks. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	455M
EPS	—	0.247
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.19B–$2.21B	2.2B
EPS	—	4.684
Capital expenditure	About $30M	—
EBITDA	$585M–$600Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.32B
EPS	—	5.126

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.13

Unavailable → $5.13 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.32B

$2.31B → $2.32B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,314,766,857	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$2,315,228,000	4 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,314,766,857	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,315,228,000	4 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$2,315,228,000	4 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$2,314,766,857	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$2,315,228,000	4 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,318,261,330	4 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,318,261,330	4 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,318,261,330	4 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,331,746,170	4 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,331,746,170	4 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$2,331,746,170	4 / 6
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$2,333,912,830	4 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$2,317,366,857	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$2,333,921,167	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$2,333,921,167	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$2,333,921,167	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$2,333,921,167	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$2,333,921,167	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$2,334,244,284	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$2,334,244,284	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$2,334,244,284	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$2,334,244,284	4 / 5
2026-08-29	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$5.19	$2,334,244,284	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$5.13	$2,324,597,856	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings