Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$80.42-0.77%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
Frontdoor grows revenue about 6% yearly, hitting $2.15 billion in 2026. Profit rises with adjusted EBITDA near $573 million. Cash flow stays strong with capital spending controlled. The company buys back shares, returning $60 million in Q1 2026.
Revenue growth could slow below 6%. Profit margins might shrink. Cash flow or share buybacks could weaken.
The price is about 15% below our fair value near $93. Analysts expect 6% revenue growth, which matches our view.
Breaks if: Share repurchases drop below $60 million per quarter
Repurchase shares aggressively, completing $181 million year-to-date through July 2026, up over 21% from prior year.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a cautious view on a company in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current thesis is shaped by recent financial performance that is below industry peers, but management has shown commitment to revenue growth and profitability.
The market seems to have a neutral valuation stance on FTDR, with expectations slightly below its peers. There is a low level of fragility in the current pricing, suggesting that the stock is not overly sensitive to immediate changes.
Management is on track with its priorities, particularly in increasing revenue and enhancing operating income. However, cash flow generation remains mixed, and there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although past performance has shown volatility.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for management to maintain guidance without cuts, the impact of inflation on consumer spending, and the performance of key sector peers. Positive momentum in the sector could provide a boost.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates a decline in the reasons to own the stock. Additionally, pricing concerns may hinder revenue growth objectives.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 5 quarters. Share repurchases totaled $181 million year-to-date through July 2026, up over 21% from the prior year. Prior year full-year repurchases were $280 million. Management is delivering increased capital return to shareholders through accelerated share repurchases.
“Completed $181 million of share repurchases year-to-date through July 2026.”
“First-quarter share repurchases totaled $60 million.”
“Repurchased $280 million of shares in 2025.”
Breaks if: Capex rises above $35 million or cash flow falls below Q1 levels
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $553 million in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $2.075 billion in FY26
Overall, FTDR's performance and outlook are mixed, with several risks to monitor. Not investment advice.