Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Federal Signal Corporation (FSS)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23
$113.23-2.00%
Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.78 → 5.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter ending 2026-12-30 | ||
| Revenue | — | 680.2M |
| EPS | — | 1.313 |
| Annual ending 2026-12-31 | ||
| Revenue | — | 2.64B |
| EPS | — | 5.231 |
| Annual ending 2027-12-31 | ||
| Revenue | — | 2.79B |
| EPS | — | |
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual cash conversion near 100% | It aims for 100% cash conversion to boost financial strength. | Intact | annual cash conversion falls significantly below 90% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management targets 100% annual cash conversion, supported by a 5-year average of 102%. Cash from operating activities increased from $97.2M in 2025-Q4 to $112.9M in 2026-Q2, while net income rose from $60.8M to $86.1M, indicating delivery on cash conversion goals. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Oct 29, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FSS is an industrials business with a durable premium in its valuation, supported by strong recent financial performance and stable management. Its long-term thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
FSS trades at a premium to peers, which the evidence describes as justified, with low overall fragility in what is priced in. The expectations gap is modestly negative, so the evidence points to some execution weakness being reflected, but not a broader fragile setup.
Near term, recent results remain strong, and operating cash flow has increased alongside net income. Management is on track with disciplined acquisitions and its cash-conversion goal, while aftermarket expansion remains a stated priority without new growth data; the signal has softened and industry peers have recently missed expectations.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis partly hinges on whether acquisitions integrate well and the aftermarket ecosystem expands. In the near term, industrial bellwethers’ results and guidance are key signals: continued strength could support the sector backdrop, while weaker reports or GDP growth below 2% could weigh more heavily on FSS.
The multi-year view remains intact, supported by strong results and steady execution, but the industrials headwind and softer signal make sector conditions and acquisition integration important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management figures unavailable.
Disciplined M&A strategy execution | The company follows a disciplined M&A strategy to expand its product range. | Intact | M&A deals fail to enhance growth or dilute value | Qualitative: M&A execution advancing FSS acquired Western Technology assets and raised 2026 sales outlook to $2.58B-$2.67B following record Q2 performance. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management highlighted acquisitions of Mega Corporation (Jan 2026) and New Way Trucks (Nov 2025) as part of a disciplined M&A strategy targeting niche market leaders with synergy potential. The strategy is delivering with recent completed deals and integration plans underway. Delivery assessment Aug 18, 2026 |
Revenue growth at or above 12.7% YoY | A primary condition in Federal Signal Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=12.7% YoY. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 12.7% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management emphasizes expanding the aftermarket ecosystem, which accounted for about 21% of net sales in FY 2025. Initiatives include rental offerings and certified-owned programs targeting all customer segments, showing consistent focus but no new quantitative growth data yet. Delivery assessment Aug 18, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.55 → $5.78 · observed estimates
$2.80B → $2.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.55 | $2,798,357,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.55 | $2,798,357,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.55 | $2,798,357,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.55 | $2,798,357,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.55 | $2,798,357,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.55 | $2,798,354,386 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.55 | $2,798,354,386 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.54 | $2,799,583,330 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.59 | $2,800,096,229 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.67 | $2,797,039,086 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.70 | $2,795,385,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.67 | $2,797,039,086 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.73 | $2,797,871,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.73 | $2,797,871,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.67 | $2,797,039,086 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.73 | $2,797,871,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.73 | $2,797,871,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.73 | $2,797,871,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.73 | $2,797,871,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.67 | $2,797,039,086 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.67 | $2,797,039,086 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.67 | $2,797,039,086 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.67 | $2,797,039,086 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.67 | $2,797,039,086 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.67 | $2,797,039,086 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.67 | $2,797,039,086 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.67 | $2,797,039,086 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.78 | $2,791,368,459 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.