Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-10-15

$64.15+0.27%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Fox Corporation (Class A)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.86 → 5.83 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow remains positive and healthy	Free cash flow yield is healthy at 9%.	Intact	Free cash flow turns negative or declines sharply	Free cash flow: $2.635B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Positive free cash flow. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20262,635,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain profit margins near current levels	Profit margins remain stable with a price-to-earnings ratio near 11.	Broken	Profit margins fall significantly below recent levels	Operating margin: 21.87% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Maintain stable profit margins. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Sep 17, 202621.866097 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7d96f64b-c746-4435-976e-b254bdf55a24. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Fox revenue growth at least 6.8% annually	A primary condition in Fox Corporation (Class A)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6.8% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6.8% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful integration and growth from Roku acquisition	The $22B Roku acquisition boosts streaming reach and content distribution.	Improving	Roku acquisition fails to deliver expected strategic benefits	Qualitative: Deal active, DOJ review ongoing Fox acquired Roku for $96/share. DOJ requested documents in review. No signs of deal failure or synergy loss. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$5.83

$5.79 → $5.83 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$17.57B

$17.96B → $17.57B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-07-25	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-07-26	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-07-27	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-07-28	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-07-29	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-07-30	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-07-31	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-08-01	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-08-02	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-08-03	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-08-04	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-08-05	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-08-06	$5.79	$17,959,512,172	8 / 12
2026-08-07	$5.81	$17,966,668,862	8 / 12
2026-08-08	$5.79	$17,475,578,610	16 / 16
2026-08-09	$5.78	$17,522,344,140	18 / 17
2026-08-10	$5.78	$17,522,344,140	18 / 17
2026-08-11	$5.81	$17,966,668,862	8 / 12
2026-08-12	$5.74	$17,501,312,860	18 / 17
2026-08-13	$5.81	$17,966,668,862	8 / 12
2026-08-14	$5.81	$17,966,668,862	8 / 12
2026-08-15	$5.81	$17,966,668,862	13 / 14
2026-08-16	$5.81	$17,966,668,862	13 / 14
2026-08-17	$5.81	$17,966,668,862	13 / 14
2026-08-18	$5.81	$17,966,668,862	12 / 14
2026-08-19	$5.81	$17,966,668,862	13 / 14
2026-08-20	$5.84	$17,920,495,736	11 / 13
2026-08-21	$5.84	$17,920,495,736	11 / 13
2026-08-22	$5.86	$17,937,917,958	11 / 13
2026-08-23	$5.86	$17,937,917,958	11 / 13
2026-08-24	$5.86	$17,937,917,958	11 / 13
2026-08-25	$5.86	$17,937,917,958	11 / 13
2026-08-26	$5.86	$17,937,917,958	11 / 13
2026-08-27	$5.86	$17,937,917,958	11 / 13
2026-08-28	$5.86	$17,937,917,958	11 / 13
2026-08-29	$5.86	$17,937,917,958	11 / 13
2026-08-30	$5.86	$17,937,917,958	11 / 13
2026-08-31	$5.86	$17,937,917,958	11 / 13
2026-09-01	$5.86	$17,937,917,958	11 / 13
2026-09-02	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-03	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-04	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-05	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-06	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-07	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-08	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-09	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-10	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-11	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-12	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-13	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-14	$5.85	$17,946,551,823	11 / 12
2026-09-15	$5.86	$17,951,121,166	11 / 12
2026-09-16	$5.86	$17,951,121,166	12 / 13
2026-09-17	$5.86	$17,951,121,166	12 / 13
2026-09-18	$5.86	$17,951,121,166	12 / 13
2026-09-19	$5.86	$17,951,121,166	12 / 13
2026-09-20	$5.86	$17,951,121,166	12 / 13
2026-09-21	$5.86	$17,951,121,166	12 / 13
2026-09-22	$5.86	$17,951,121,166	12 / 13
2026-09-23	$5.87	$17,954,441,878	12 / 13
2026-09-24	$5.87	$17,954,441,878	12 / 13
2026-09-25	$5.88	$17,958,722,100	12 / 13
2026-09-26	$5.88	$17,971,999,878	12 / 13
2026-09-27	$5.88	$17,971,999,878	12 / 13
2026-09-28	$5.88	$17,971,999,878	12 / 13
2026-09-29	$5.88	$17,971,999,878	12 / 13
2026-09-30	$5.88	$17,971,999,878	12 / 13
2026-10-01	$5.88	$17,971,999,878	12 / 13
2026-10-02	$5.88	$17,971,999,878	12 / 13
2026-10-03	$5.88	$17,971,992,389	12 / 13
2026-10-04	$5.88	$17,971,992,389	12 / 13
2026-10-05	$5.88	$17,971,992,389	12 / 13
2026-10-06	$5.88	$17,971,992,389	12 / 13
2026-10-07	$5.88	$17,971,992,389	12 / 13
2026-10-08	$5.87	$17,971,992,389	12 / 13
2026-10-09	$5.87	$17,971,992,389	12 / 13
2026-10-10	$5.87	$17,971,992,389	12 / 13
2026-10-11	$5.83	$17,566,732,453	11 / 13
2026-10-12	$5.83	$17,566,732,453	11 / 12
2026-10-13	$5.83	$17,566,732,453	11 / 12
2026-10-14	$5.83	$17,566,732,453	11 / 12
2026-10-15	$5.83	$17,566,732,453	11 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	10	1
2026-06-01	9	10	1
2026-07-01	10	9	1
2026-08-01	10	9	1
2026-09-01	11	7	1
2026-10-01	11	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow remains positive and healthyFree cash flow: $2.635B
Maintain profit margins near current levelsPublished status: Broken
Fox revenue growth at least 6.8% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Fox Corporation (Class A) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state indicates that while recent financial performance is strong, there are concerns about execution quality.

What's priced into Fox Corporation (Class A)

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, suggesting that FOXA is seen as cheap compared to its peers. However, there is a fragility due to weak execution quality, which could impact future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, but there is a moderate risk due to the potential for guidance cuts. Recent changes show a significant drop in company momentum, which could affect future results.

What Fox Corporation (Class A) hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector leaders like NFLX, DIS, and WBD. A favorable shift in these areas could provide a boost to FOXA.