FormFactor, Inc. (FORM)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$98.51+3.66%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge FormFactor, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+3.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.75 → 3.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$260M–$280MGAAP $260M–$280Mnon-GAAP	—
EPS	$0.66–$0.84GAAP $0.77–$0.95non-GAAP	—
Gross margin	50.5%–53.5%GAAP 52.5%–55.5%non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	278.31M
EPS	—	0.812
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.03B
EPS	—	3.049
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.22B
EPS	—	3.876

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin near 46.6% next quarter	FormFactor grows revenue about 19% a year, hitting $240 million next quarter.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 40% next quarter	Gross margin: 50.7% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 46.6%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 202650.697408 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0876d0f7-7c06-436f-bcdb-4818e0c07e5b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margin improved significantly from 38.5% in 2025-Q2 to 53.3% in 2026-Q2, reflecting operational improvements and capacity expansion. Management's statements align with this positive margin trajectory, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to $16.6 million	Operating income rose from $3.3 million to $16.6 million last year.	Intact	Operating income falls below $10 million next quarter	Operating income: $57.799M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $16.6 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202657,799,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0876d0f7-7c06-436f-bcdb-4818e0c07e5b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased substantially from $16.6 million in 2026-Q1 to $57.8 million in 2026-Q2, demonstrating improved profitability and operating leverage. Management's statements and financials confirm delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to about $240 million next quarter	FormFactor grows revenue about 19% a year, hitting $240 million next quarter.	Intact	Revenue falls below $220 million next quarter	Revenue: $258.242M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$240 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 2026258,242,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0876d0f7-7c06-436f-bcdb-4818e0c07e5b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased from $215.2 million in 2025-Q4 to $258.2 million in 2026-Q2, a 20% growth over two quarters. Management has consistently emphasized revenue growth driven by strong demand in DRAM, Foundry & Logic, and Systems segments, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.88

$3.07 → $3.88 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.22B

$1.11B → $1.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.07	$1,112,733,726	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$3.07	$1,112,733,726	7 / 8
2026-07-26	$3.07	$1,112,733,726	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$3.07	$1,112,733,726	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$3.07	$1,112,733,726	7 / 8
2026-07-29	$3.07	$1,112,733,726	7 / 8
2026-07-30	$3.25	$1,134,433,726	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-01	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-03	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-07	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-09	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-10	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-11	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$3.75	$1,207,922,433	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$3.75	$1,196,933,544	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$3.75	$1,195,155,766	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$3.75	$1,195,155,766	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$3.75	$1,195,155,766	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$3.75	$1,195,155,766	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$3.75	$1,195,155,766	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$3.75	$1,195,155,766	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$3.75	$1,195,155,766	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$3.75	$1,195,155,766	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$3.75	$1,195,155,766	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$3.75	$1,195,155,766	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$3.75	$1,195,155,766	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$3.75	$1,195,153,544	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$3.75	$1,196,931,322	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$3.75	$1,196,931,322	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$3.75	$1,196,931,322	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$3.75	$1,196,931,322	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$3.81	$1,212,535,505	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$3.81	$1,212,535,505	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$3.81	$1,212,535,505	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$3.81	$1,212,535,505	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$3.81	$1,212,535,505	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$3.81	$1,212,535,505	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$3.81	$1,208,368,641	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.81	$1,208,395,914	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$3.81	$1,208,395,914	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$3.81	$1,208,395,914	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$3.81	$1,208,395,914	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$3.81	$1,208,395,914	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$3.81	$1,208,395,914	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$3.81	$1,208,395,914	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$3.81	$1,208,395,914	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$3.81	$1,208,395,914	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$3.81	$1,208,395,914	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$3.88	$1,224,331,515	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$3.88	$1,224,331,515	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$3.88	$1,224,334,199	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$3.88	$1,224,334,199	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$3.88	$1,224,334,199	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$3.88	$1,224,334,199	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$3.88	$1,224,334,199	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	8
2026-06-01	5	7
2026-07-01	5	5
2026-08-01	5	5
2026-09-01	6	5
2026-10-01	6	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 13 · prior Apr 30

$135.00 → $115.00-14.8%

Deutsche BankSep 30

$200.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$110.00$220.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin near 46.6% next quarterGross margin: 50.7%
Operating income improves to $16.6 millionOperating income: $57.799M
Revenue grows to about $240 million next quarterRevenue: $258.242M

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

4.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

FormFactor, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FORM is a growth-oriented semiconductor equipment business with a thesis tied to demand in DRAM, Foundry & Logic, and Systems. The long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance is strong, though earnings quality is fragile and overall risk is high.

What's priced into FormFactor, Inc.

FORM trades at a 1.27 premium versus peers, so its valuation is expensive. The expectations gap is slightly negative at -0.09, while the evidence says the premium is justified by execution; confidence in that valuation model is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue, gross margin, and operating income have improved, and management is on track with its stated priorities. The latest listed earnings event was positive, but a prior deep miss and recent misses among industry peers are reasons to watch execution. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative.

What FormFactor, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether demand and margin progress continue without a guidance cut. Fed rate cuts and continued strong results from sector bellwethers such as NVDA, TSM, and AVGO are possible tailwinds, while a guidance cut or weaker sector results would challenge the setup.