Fidelity National Financial (FNF)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$40.44-2.27%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Fidelity National Financial’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	3.75B
EPS	—	1.306
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	14.78B
EPS	—	4.942
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	15.09B
EPS	—	5.384

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks	The company returns capital with $222M in dividends and buybacks.	Intact	Capital return falls below $170M next year	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital returned to shareholders totaled $195M in 2026-Q2 and $417M in first half 2026, following $800M returned in full year 2025. Management is maintaining a disciplined capital allocation strategy with consistent delivery of shareholder returns. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
F&G assets under management growth and fee-based transition	F&G assets under management rise to $74.5B, shifting to a fee-based model.	Intact	F&G AUM falls below $67.4B next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. F&G's assets under management before reinsurance grew from $73.1B in 2025-Q4 to $74.7B in 2026-Q2, an 8% year-over-year increase. Management continues to execute on growing AUM and transitioning to a fee-based, higher margin business model, delivering consistent progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net earnings and adjusted net earnings growth	Net earnings improved from $83M to $243M in one year.	Intact	Net earnings fall below $83M or adjusted net earnings below $213M next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net earnings increased from $278M in 2025-Q2 to $288M in 2026-Q2, and adjusted net earnings rose from $318M to $370M over the same period. Management is delivering modest improvement in net income and adjusted net earnings. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Title Segment revenue and adjusted pre-tax margin	Fidelity National Financial grows Title Segment revenue to $2.0B with margins at 13.1%.	Intact	Title Segment revenue falls below $1.8B or margin below 11.7% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted pre-tax title earnings grew from $268M in 2026-Q1 to $448M in 2026-Q2, with margin expanding from 13.1% to 17.8%. Title segment revenue increased 16% year-over-year to $2.5B in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on growth and margin expansion in the Title Segment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-25	$5.89	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	$5.89	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-28	$5.89	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	$5.89	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	$5.89	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-03	$5.89	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$5.89	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$5.89	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$5.89	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	1
2026-06-01	4	1
2026-07-01	4	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

StephensOct 21 · prior May 12

$58.00 → $50.00-13.8%

Truist FinancialOct 15

$59.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$32.45$64.90

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacksRequired source inputs unavailable
F&G assets under management growth and fee-based transitionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Net earnings and adjusted net earnings growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Title Segment revenue and adjusted pre-tax marginDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Fidelity National Financial outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FNF is a financial company with both title operations and an insurance and annuity business through F&G. The long-term thesis has signs of operating progress, but its current state is watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Fidelity National Financial

The evidence describes FNF as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear below the model’s estimate. The valuation signal is marked justified and fragility is low, but confidence in the overall thesis has eased from high to medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results remain uneven: the snapshot records a recent earnings miss as well as a later earnings beat, and notes that recent surprises have been trending down. Across the multi-year view, title earnings and margins improved from the first to the second quarter of 2026, while F&G assets under management grew year over year; management reports both priorities on track.

What Fidelity National Financial hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current level could weigh on FNF and the broader financial sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers FAF, ACT, and ESNT would support sector momentum, while execution in title and F&G remains central to the company’s multi-year thesis.