Floor & Decor (FND)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-10-23

$47.83-0.71%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Floor & Decor’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.20 → 2.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 25, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.23B
EPS	—	0.456
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$4.77B–$4.99B	4.85B
EPS	$2.2–$2.45 $1.88–$2.13non-GAAP	1.968
Capital expenditure	$240M–$275Mnon-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$550M–$585Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.1B
EPS	—	2.171

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $1.96 in FY26	A primary condition in Floor & Decor's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.96 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.83 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.89 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.96 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.89 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 25, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1bfbffc4-a10c-4af9-991e-f5b790ac2c35. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $4.89 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Floor & Decor's published investment case. The stated target is ~$4.89B.	Improving	revenue falls below $4.66B in FY26	Revenue: $1.25B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.89B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261,250,270,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 25, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1bfbffc4-a10c-4af9-991e-f5b790ac2c35. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Implement $400M share repurchase program	The company is executing a $400 million share buyback program.	Intact	Buyback program is materially delayed or canceled	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company returned $65.7 million to shareholders through share repurchases in 2026-Q2, reflecting active execution of the $400 million repurchase program authorized in 2026-Q1. The trajectory is delivering on the stated capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-25 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.17

$2.21 → $2.17 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.10B

$5.12B → $5.10B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.21	$5,120,483,303	15 / 16
2026-07-25	$2.21	$5,120,483,303	15 / 16
2026-07-26	$2.21	$5,110,608,930	15 / 16
2026-07-27	$2.21	$5,110,608,930	15 / 16
2026-07-28	$2.21	$5,110,608,930	15 / 16
2026-07-29	$2.21	$5,110,911,061	15 / 16
2026-07-30	$2.21	$5,110,911,061	15 / 16
2026-07-31	$2.21	$5,113,300,783	15 / 16
2026-08-01	$2.21	$5,113,300,783	15 / 16
2026-08-02	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-03	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-04	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-05	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-06	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-07	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-08	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-09	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-10	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-11	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-12	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-13	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-14	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-15	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-16	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-17	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-18	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-19	$2.20	$5,108,429,893	14 / 16
2026-08-20	$2.20	$5,104,629,893	13 / 16
2026-08-21	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-08-22	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-08-23	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-08-24	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-08-25	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-08-26	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-08-27	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-08-28	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-08-29	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-08-30	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-08-31	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-09-01	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-09-02	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-09-03	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-09-04	$2.20	$5,104,638,983	13 / 16
2026-09-05	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-06	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-07	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-08	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-09	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-10	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-11	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-12	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-13	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-14	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-15	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-16	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-17	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-18	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-19	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-20	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-21	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-22	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-23	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-24	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-25	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-26	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-27	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-28	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-29	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-09-30	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-10-01	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-10-02	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-10-03	$2.20	$5,104,618,347	13 / 16
2026-10-04	$2.20	$5,104,609,256	13 / 16
2026-10-05	$2.20	$5,104,609,256	13 / 16
2026-10-06	$2.20	$5,104,609,256	13 / 16
2026-10-07	$2.20	$5,104,609,256	13 / 16
2026-10-08	$2.20	$5,104,609,256	13 / 16
2026-10-09	$2.19	$5,104,609,256	13 / 16
2026-10-10	$2.19	$5,104,609,256	13 / 16
2026-10-11	$2.19	$5,104,609,256	13 / 16
2026-10-12	$2.19	$5,104,609,256	13 / 16
2026-10-13	$2.19	$5,104,609,256	13 / 16
2026-10-14	$2.19	$5,104,609,256	13 / 16
2026-10-15	$2.18	$5,105,377,148	13 / 16
2026-10-16	$2.18	$5,105,377,148	13 / 16
2026-10-17	$2.18	$5,105,377,148	13 / 16
2026-10-18	$2.18	$5,105,377,148	13 / 16
2026-10-19	$2.18	$5,105,377,148	13 / 16
2026-10-20	$2.18	$5,105,377,148	13 / 16
2026-10-21	$2.17	$5,101,645,330	13 / 16
2026-10-22	$2.17	$5,101,645,330	13 / 16
2026-10-23	$2.17	$5,101,645,330	13 / 16
2026-10-24	$2.17	$5,101,645,330	13 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	13	3
2026-06-01	7	13	3
2026-07-01	7	13	3
2026-08-01	7	13	3
2026-09-01	7	13	3
2026-10-01	7	13	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 20

$47.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Jul 31

$55.00 → $45.00-18.2%

Evercore ISIOct 13 · prior Sep 29

$55.00 → $50.00-9.1%

$0$30.25$60.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $1.96 in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.89 per share
Revenue near $4.89 billion in FY26Revenue: $1.25B
Implement $400M share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Floor & Decor outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FND is a growth-oriented retailer with a durable-quality premium, rather than a deep-value or turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, although confidence is medium and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Floor & Decor

FND trades at a substantial premium to peers, while the valuation assessment is that this premium is justified. The expectations gap is modestly negative, suggesting expectations are somewhat ahead of the evidence; the snapshot reports low valuation fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong, and net sales have grown modestly despite declines in comparable store sales. The company is executing its repurchase program and has opened 11 of the 20 stores planned for fiscal 2026, though expansion progress is mixed. Near term, the next guidance update and continued comparable-store weakness are key risks.

What Floor & Decor hinges on

The multi-year view depends on FND sustaining sales growth while expanding its warehouse-store base. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support the broader sector backdrop. Misses or weaker guidance from those peers could remove that support.