Comfort Systems USA (FIX)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$1439.07-2.85%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Comfort Systems USA’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

60.18 → 60.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Backlog stays above $12.4B	A supporting condition in Comfort Systems USA's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.4B backlog.	Intact	backlog falls below $12.4B	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Backlog increased from $11.94B at 2025-Q4 to $12.45B at 2026-Q1, reflecting strong demand and bookings. Management's optimism about future growth aligns with the backlog growth, indicating delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Quarterly dividend at least $0.80 per share	The company also raised dividends steadily to $0.80 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.80	Dividend per share: $0.80 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.80 dividend per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20260.8 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 54f1bede-6841-4a84-afb0-caebdbc725fd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Dividend per share increased steadily from $0.40 in 2025-Q1 to $0.80 in 2026-Q1, consistent with management's commitment to increasing dividends. The trajectory is delivering as per stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve EPS near $28.88 in FY26	Earnings per share rose from $4.09 to $10.51 in the same period.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $28.88 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $12.53 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $28.88 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202612.53 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 54f1bede-6841-4a84-afb0-caebdbc725fd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.83B in 2025-Q1 to $2.87B in 2026-Q1, net income increased from $169.3M to $370.4M, and diluted EPS rose from $4.75 to $10.51 over the same period. Management consistently emphasized strong growth and profitability, and the financials show delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near $11.9B in FY26	A primary condition in Comfort Systems USA's published investment case. The stated target is >= $11.9B total revenue.	Under Pressure	total revenue falls below $11.9B in FY26	Revenue: $3.266B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $11.9B total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20263,265,656,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 54f1bede-6841-4a84-afb0-caebdbc725fd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.83B in 2025-Q1 to $2.87B in 2026-Q1, net income increased from $169.3M to $370.4M, and diluted EPS rose from $4.75 to $10.51 over the same period. Management consistently emphasized strong growth and profitability, and the financials show delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$60.18

$54.17 → $60.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$15.45B

$14.23B → $15.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$54.17	$14,228,187,295	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$55.04	$14,348,910,720	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$55.04	$14,348,910,720	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$56.99	$14,690,740,340	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$56.99	$14,673,691,406	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$56.99	$14,673,691,406	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$60.66	$15,412,709,880	8 / 9
2026-07-31	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-01	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$60.04	$15,412,709,880	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$60.04	$15,412,709,880	9 / 9
2026-08-04	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$60.04	$15,412,709,880	9 / 9
2026-08-07	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$60.04	$15,412,709,880	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$60.04	$15,412,709,880	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-11	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$60.04	$15,563,298,894	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$60.18	$15,580,235,358	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$60.18	$15,580,235,358	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$60.18	$15,580,235,358	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$60.18	$15,580,235,358	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$60.18	$15,580,235,358	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$60.18	$15,580,235,358	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$60.18	$15,580,235,358	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$60.18	$15,580,235,358	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$60.18	$15,446,388,894	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$60.18	$15,446,388,854	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$60.18	$15,446,388,854	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$60.18	$15,446,388,854	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$60.18	$15,446,388,854	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$60.18	$15,446,388,854	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$60.18	$15,446,388,854	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$60.18	$15,446,388,854	8 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	7	1
2026-07-01	8	1
2026-08-01	9	1
2026-09-01	9	1
2026-10-01	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

KeyBancOct 15 · prior Jul 27

$2110.00 → $2125.00+0.7%

$0$1168.75$2337.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Backlog stays above $12.4BDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Quarterly dividend at least $0.80 per shareDividend per share: $0.80 per share
Achieve EPS near $28.88 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Sustain revenue growth near $11.9B in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Comfort Systems USA outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and profitability. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has not matched industry peers, and the stock is considered expensive relative to its sector.

What's priced into Comfort Systems USA

The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality, despite the stock being expensive compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may anticipate better performance than what has been delivered recently.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities like sustaining revenue growth, increasing dividends, and maintaining a strong backlog. However, there is an elevated risk due to recent changes in company momentum and the potential for sector headwinds.

What Comfort Systems USA hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results of key peers like PWR, EME, and APG. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support FIX, but any negative guidance from them could lead to a decline in sentiment.