What could strengthen or challenge Fair Isaac’s outlook?
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Higher potential upsideImproving expectations
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Comparable estimates unavailable
+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
How this is measured
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
Living FV™
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management context
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.48 billion in first nine months of 2025 to $1.88 billion in first nine months of 2026. Management raised full year revenue guidance from $2.45 billion to $2.53 billion in 2026, reflecting delivery and positive trajectory.
Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Incoming Evidence
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Expectations trend
Same fiscal period
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
FY2028 EPS$56.48
$60.54 → $56.48 · observed estimates
FY2028 revenue$3.03B
$3.20B → $3.03B · observed estimates
Exact estimates & source dates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot
EPS
Revenue
EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01
$60.54
$3,199,141,855
9 / 16
2026-10-02
$60.54
$3,199,141,855
9 / 16
2026-10-03
$59.39
$3,147,532,920
9 / 16
2026-10-04
$59.39
$3,147,532,920
9 / 16
2026-10-05
$59.39
$3,147,532,920
9 / 16
2026-10-06
$58.68
$3,123,318,635
9 / 16
2026-10-07
$57.28
$3,057,233,875
9 / 16
2026-10-08
$57.12
$3,057,233,875
8 / 16
2026-10-09
$57.12
$3,057,233,875
8 / 16
2026-10-10
$57.12
$3,057,233,875
8 / 16
2026-10-11
$57.12
$3,057,233,875
8 / 16
2026-10-12
$57.12
$3,057,233,875
8 / 16
2026-10-13
$57.12
$3,057,233,875
8 / 16
2026-10-14
$56.48
$3,029,451,840
8 / 16
2026-10-15
$56.48
$3,029,451,840
8 / 16
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
0 raises · 6 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
How this is measured
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Outlook in Brief
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
What's improving
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Still unresolved / key risks
Execute share buyback program up to $2.0 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain pricing power and data moat with UltraFICO and new data productsPublished status: Under Pressure
EPS at least $33.47 next quarterDiluted EPS: $10.45 per share
Full year revenue reaches at least $2.45 billionRevenue: $674.188M
Next proof point
Nov 4, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Risk observations as of Oct 15, 2026 · 277 daily observations. Historical moves are not forecasts.
Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks
Fair Isaac outlook in detail
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
What kind of bet this is
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance but facing some near-term risks.
What's priced into Fair Isaac
The market currently prices FICO as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that while there is some fragility due to execution quality, the overall sentiment remains justified.
What the fundamentals likely do
Fundamentals are likely to show continued strength, with management on track to increase revenue guidance and achieve stronger growth than the previous year. However, there is a low probability of missing expectations, which could impact sentiment.
What Fair Isaac hinges on
The thesis hinges on several key factors, including the Fed's potential rate cuts and the performance of sector leaders like SAP and CRM. Any reversal in guidance from FICO could significantly impact credibility and stock performance.
Bottom line
Overall, FICO appears well-positioned for the next few years, but it must navigate near-term risks carefully. Not investment advice.
Source: QuarterlyIQ weekly Outlook · Week ending Oct 10, 2026 · Updated
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
