NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
FICO grows revenue about 24% a year, backed by new data products like UltraFICO. Profit per share is rising, with guidance for $33.47 EPS next quarter. The company buys back stock, returning capital to shareholders. Its strong revenue growth and buyback program support durable earnings.
Growth could slow if AI adoption lags or competition erodes pricing power. The company’s profit margins may face pressure from rising costs. Capital allocation risks exist due to new financial obligations.
The market prices in about 24% revenue growth and values shares roughly 13% below our fair value near $1486. Our fair value aligns with Street median targets, reflecting justified expectations for growth and profitability.
Breaks if: No meaningful buybacks announced or executed within 12 months
FICO has announced a new share buyback program to acquire up to $2.0 billion of its outstanding common stock.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue growth and management execution. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong financial results, though risks remain high due to sector challenges.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance on FICO, with a slight premium compared to peers. Expectations are somewhat aligned with recent performance, suggesting that the current pricing reflects a cautious outlook.
FICO's fundamentals are likely to continue showing strength, as management has successfully raised revenue guidance and achieved significant income growth. However, the high risk associated with sector performance could impact future results.
The thesis hinges on the performance of key sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW. If these companies continue to exceed earnings expectations, it could provide a favorable environment for FICO. Conversely, any signs of weakness from these peers could negatively affect FICO's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports growth. However, missed revenue estimates raise guidance concerns. Increased competition also threatens the company's position.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Significant loss of pricing power or data product adoption stalls
Breaks if: EPS falls below $25.05 in FY26
Breaks if: Full year revenue falls below $1.99 billion in FY26
Overall, FICO's outlook remains cautiously optimistic for the next 1 to 3 years, driven by strong management execution and recent financial performance. Not investment advice.
