Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)

NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-10-15

$69.54-0.74%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Freeport-McMoRan’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+6.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.01 → 4.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures near $4.3 billion in 2026	Capital spending is disciplined, targeted near $4.3 billion.	Intact	Capital expenditures exceed $4.3 billion by more than 10% in FY26	Capital expenditures: $973M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.3 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026973,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled $973 million in 2026-Q1 and $1.1 billion in 2026-Q2, totaling $2.1 billion for first half of 2026, on track for the $4.3 billion full-year target. Management has consistently reiterated this disciplined capex guidance and is delivering spending aligned with the plan. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Average unit net cash costs near $1.95 per pound of copper in 2026	Cash costs are managed around $1.95 per pound.	Intact	Unit cash costs rise above $1.95 per pound in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Average unit net cash costs were $1.97 per pound in 2026-Q2 and $1.91 in 2026-Q1, with guidance targeting $1.90 per pound for 2026. Costs have fluctuated but remain near the target range, reflecting management's ongoing focus on cost optimization with mixed delivery due to operational challenges. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Consolidated copper sales of approximately 3.1 billion pounds in 2026	Freeport-McMoRan expects to produce about 3.1 billion pounds of copper in 2026.	Improving	Copper sales fall below 3.1 billion pounds in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow above $8.7 billion in 2026	These support steady revenue near $6.2 billion and free cash flow above $8.7 billion.	Broken	Free cash flow falls below $8.7 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $1.094B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.7 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261,094,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.26

$3.90 → $4.26 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$36.16B

$34.68B → $36.16B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.90	$34,678,666,480	13 / 13
2026-07-25	$4.05	$34,908,676,620	17 / 16
2026-07-26	$4.08	$34,961,285,610	17 / 16
2026-07-27	$3.97	$34,959,080,490	18 / 17
2026-07-28	$3.97	$34,959,080,490	18 / 17
2026-07-29	$3.97	$35,246,685,063	13 / 14
2026-07-30	$3.97	$35,246,685,063	13 / 14
2026-07-31	$4.09	$35,536,266,490	17 / 17
2026-08-01	$3.97	$35,246,685,063	13 / 14
2026-08-02	$4.09	$35,536,266,490	17 / 17
2026-08-03	$4.09	$35,536,266,490	17 / 17
2026-08-04	$3.97	$35,246,685,063	14 / 14
2026-08-05	$3.97	$35,246,685,063	14 / 14
2026-08-06	$3.97	$35,246,685,063	14 / 14
2026-08-07	$3.97	$35,405,784,185	14 / 14
2026-08-08	$4.09	$35,536,266,490	17 / 17
2026-08-09	$4.09	$35,536,266,490	17 / 17
2026-08-10	$4.09	$35,536,266,490	17 / 17
2026-08-11	$4.09	$35,536,266,490	17 / 17
2026-08-12	$3.97	$35,405,784,185	14 / 14
2026-08-13	$3.97	$35,405,784,185	14 / 14
2026-08-14	$3.97	$35,405,784,185	14 / 14
2026-08-15	$3.97	$35,405,784,185	14 / 14
2026-08-16	$3.97	$35,405,784,185	14 / 14
2026-08-17	$3.97	$35,405,784,185	14 / 14
2026-08-18	$3.97	$35,405,784,185	14 / 14
2026-08-19	$3.97	$35,405,784,185	14 / 14
2026-08-20	$4.00	$35,405,784,002	14 / 14
2026-08-21	$4.00	$35,415,145,502	14 / 14
2026-08-22	$4.00	$35,415,145,502	14 / 14
2026-08-23	$4.00	$35,415,145,502	14 / 14
2026-08-24	$4.00	$35,415,145,502	14 / 14
2026-08-25	$4.00	$35,415,145,502	14 / 14
2026-08-26	$4.00	$35,415,145,502	14 / 14
2026-08-27	$4.00	$35,415,145,502	14 / 14
2026-08-28	$4.00	$35,415,145,502	14 / 14
2026-08-29	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-08-30	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-08-31	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-09-01	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-09-02	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-09-03	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-09-04	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-09-05	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-09-06	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-09-07	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-09-08	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-09-09	$4.01	$35,382,254,591	14 / 14
2026-09-10	$4.01	$35,360,896,649	14 / 14
2026-09-11	$4.01	$35,360,896,649	14 / 14
2026-09-12	$4.01	$35,360,896,649	14 / 14
2026-09-13	$4.01	$35,360,896,649	14 / 14
2026-09-14	$4.01	$35,360,896,649	14 / 14
2026-09-15	$4.01	$35,360,896,649	14 / 14
2026-09-16	$4.01	$35,360,896,649	14 / 14
2026-09-17	$4.00	$35,335,955,473	14 / 14
2026-09-18	$4.00	$35,335,955,473	14 / 14
2026-09-19	$4.00	$35,335,955,473	14 / 14
2026-09-20	$4.00	$35,335,955,473	14 / 14
2026-09-21	$4.00	$35,335,955,473	14 / 14
2026-09-22	$4.00	$35,335,961,302	14 / 14
2026-09-23	$4.00	$35,335,961,302	14 / 14
2026-09-24	$4.00	$35,335,961,302	14 / 14
2026-09-25	$4.00	$35,335,961,302	14 / 14
2026-09-26	$4.00	$35,335,961,302	14 / 14
2026-09-27	$4.00	$35,335,961,302	14 / 14
2026-09-28	$4.00	$35,335,961,302	14 / 14
2026-09-29	$4.02	$35,335,961,302	14 / 14
2026-09-30	$4.02	$35,335,961,302	14 / 14
2026-10-01	$4.02	$35,335,961,302	14 / 14
2026-10-02	$4.02	$35,335,961,302	14 / 14
2026-10-03	$4.02	$35,335,959,246	14 / 14
2026-10-04	$4.03	$35,371,847,775	14 / 14
2026-10-05	$4.03	$35,371,847,775	14 / 14
2026-10-06	$4.03	$35,371,847,775	14 / 14
2026-10-07	$4.08	$35,494,335,889	14 / 14
2026-10-08	$4.22	$35,956,954,358	14 / 14
2026-10-09	$4.25	$36,071,125,041	14 / 14
2026-10-10	$4.25	$36,071,125,041	14 / 14
2026-10-11	$4.25	$36,071,125,041	14 / 14
2026-10-12	$4.25	$36,071,125,041	14 / 14
2026-10-13	$4.25	$36,071,125,041	14 / 14
2026-10-14	$4.26	$36,155,831,106	14 / 14
2026-10-15	$4.26	$36,155,831,106	14 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	3	1
2026-06-01	19	3	1
2026-07-01	19	3	1
2026-08-01	19	4	1
2026-09-01	18	4	1
2026-10-01	18	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 8 · prior Jun 30

$77.00 → $88.00+14.3%

Morgan StanleyOct 7 · prior Apr 24

$66.00 → $75.00+13.6%

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Jul 27

$82.00 → $83.00+1.2%

$0$48.40$96.80

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures near $4.3 billion in 2026Capital expenditures: $973M
Average unit net cash costs near $1.95 per pound of copper in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Consolidated copper sales of approximately 3.1 billion pounds in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow above $8.7 billion in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Freeport-McMoRan outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on copper production. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and ongoing management priorities.

What's priced into Freeport-McMoRan

The market appears to be pricing in a justified premium compared to peers, reflecting a medium confidence in future performance. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some positive developments may not be fully recognized yet.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain strong, driven by management's focus on organic growth projects and disciplined capital expenditures. However, there are operational challenges that could impact cost optimization efforts.

What Freeport-McMoRan hinges on

The thesis hinges on key factors such as management's ability to maintain guidance, inflation trends, and performance of sector peers. Any cuts to guidance could negatively affect sentiment, while positive sector momentum could provide support.