Four Corners Property Trust, Inc. (FCPT)

NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.15+0.45%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	84.05M
EPS	—	0.289
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	323.19M
EPS	—	1.13
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	329.88M
EPS	—	1.142

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Consistent dividend per share growth	Dividends per share rose steadily from $0.345 to $0.3665, showing commitment to income growth.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.34 next quarter	Dividend per share: $0.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.37 dividend per share next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 20260.3665 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ed6f32a6-e0de-4e02-a3bf-5dbbb4d29cc1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improved cash flow from operations	Cash from operations improved from $43.8M to $47.2M, supporting financial health.	Intact	cash from operations falls below $43M next quarter	Cash from operations: $50.664M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $47.2M cash from operations next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 202650,664,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth through property acquisitions	A primary condition in Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $78.2M revenue next quarter.	Improving	revenue falls below $68M next quarter	Revenue: $78.418M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $78.2M revenue next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 202678,418,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ed6f32a6-e0de-4e02-a3bf-5dbbb4d29cc1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$341,236,830	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$341,236,830	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$341,236,830	3 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$341,236,830	3 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$341,236,830	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$341,236,830	3 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$341,236,830	3 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$341,236,830	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	5
2026-06-01	4	5
2026-07-01	4	5
2026-08-01	4	5
2026-09-01	4	5
2026-10-01	4	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 20 · prior Jul 22

$29.00 → $25.00-13.8%

$0$15.95$31.90

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Consistent dividend per share growthDividend per share: $0.37 per share
Improved cash flow from operationsCash from operations: $50.664M
Revenue growth through property acquisitionsRevenue: $78.418M

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Four Corners Property Trust, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FCPT is a real estate income and acquisition story, with growth tied to adding properties and collecting rent. Its multi-year view is intact: recent performance remains in the top half of its industry, and management is delivering on portfolio growth, though the risk label has risen from low to moderate.

What's priced into Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.

Valuation is described as justified, with low fragility, meaning the setup is not flagged as especially vulnerable to weak execution and market turbulence together. FCPT trades at a 1.1 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative at -0.19; the evidence does not explain what specific assumptions the market already reflects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the latest reported quarter showed rental revenue of $70.0 million, up 8.0% year over year, and 139 acquisitions year-to-date for $364.3 million. The Mission Pet Health deal added 102 properties and reduced Darden exposure to approximately 41% of total rent; management also reported a higher per-share dividend and announced monthly payments beginning in July. Near-term risk is moderate, with a 32% estimated miss probability and recent peer misses noted as a concern, although FCPT had an earnings beat on July 29.

What Four Corners Property Trust, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued acquisition delivery, rent growth, and progress in diversifying tenants and properties. Near term, Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results from sector peers could also support the backdrop.