Diamondback Energy (FANG)

NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$203.95+4.27%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Diamondback Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+6.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

18.34 → 19.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Full-year cash capital expenditures near $3.9 billion	A supporting condition in Diamondback Energy's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.9B.	Intact	annual capex guidance falls significantly below $3.9B	Capital expenditures: $996M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.9B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026996,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Base cash dividend at least $1.10 per share in Q1 2026	It increased its base dividend to $1.10 per share in Q1 2026.	Intact	dividend cut or net income falls below breakeven	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable management and leadership confidence	A supporting condition in Diamondback Energy's published investment case. The stated target is No significant insider selling or governance issues.	Under Pressure	material insider selling or governance problems increase	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual oil production above 520 MBO/d	Diamondback Energy aims to grow oil production above 520 MBO/d.	Intact	production guidance falls below 520 MBO/d or revenue growth falls below ~7.8% next year	Revenue: $5.562B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=520 MBO/d. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20265,562,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 520bdd6a-d989-4e11-badf-ad237769814e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$19.52

$17.12 → $19.52 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$17.64B

$17.08B → $17.64B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$17.12	$17,079,091,430	24 / 9
2026-07-25	$17.12	$17,079,091,430	24 / 9
2026-07-26	$17.12	$17,079,091,430	24 / 9
2026-07-27	$17.12	$17,079,091,430	24 / 9
2026-07-28	$16.73	$16,661,505,711	16 / 9
2026-07-29	$17.16	$17,087,534,210	24 / 9
2026-07-30	$16.76	$16,665,124,044	16 / 9
2026-07-31	$16.76	$16,665,124,044	15 / 7
2026-08-01	$16.76	$16,665,124,044	15 / 7
2026-08-02	$17.36	$16,878,775,269	24 / 7
2026-08-03	$16.70	$16,635,677,329	16 / 7
2026-08-04	$17.23	$16,720,503,840	24 / 7
2026-08-05	$17.44	$16,770,140,860	24 / 8
2026-08-06	$17.44	$16,770,140,860	24 / 8
2026-08-07	$17.42	$16,731,593,276	16 / 8
2026-08-08	$17.85	$16,822,043,490	25 / 8
2026-08-09	$17.94	$16,821,982,240	25 / 8
2026-08-10	$17.42	$16,731,593,276	16 / 8
2026-08-11	$17.94	$16,821,982,240	25 / 8
2026-08-12	$17.42	$16,731,593,276	16 / 8
2026-08-13	$17.42	$16,731,593,276	16 / 8
2026-08-14	$17.42	$16,731,593,276	16 / 8
2026-08-15	$17.42	$16,731,593,276	16 / 8
2026-08-16	$17.42	$16,731,593,276	16 / 8
2026-08-17	$17.42	$16,731,593,276	16 / 8
2026-08-18	$17.42	$16,731,593,276	16 / 8
2026-08-19	$17.42	$16,731,593,276	16 / 8
2026-08-20	$17.91	$17,035,708,637	16 / 8
2026-08-21	$18.18	$17,128,165,604	16 / 8
2026-08-22	$18.18	$17,128,165,604	16 / 8
2026-08-23	$18.18	$17,128,165,604	16 / 8
2026-08-24	$18.18	$17,128,165,604	16 / 8
2026-08-25	$18.21	$17,213,211,060	16 / 8
2026-08-26	$18.21	$17,213,211,060	16 / 8
2026-08-27	$18.21	$17,213,211,060	16 / 8
2026-08-28	$18.21	$17,213,211,060	16 / 8
2026-08-29	$18.21	$17,213,211,060	16 / 8
2026-08-30	$18.21	$17,213,211,060	16 / 8
2026-08-31	$18.21	$17,213,211,060	16 / 8
2026-09-01	$18.21	$17,213,211,060	16 / 8
2026-09-02	$18.21	$17,213,211,060	16 / 8
2026-09-03	$18.18	$17,235,119,275	16 / 8
2026-09-04	$18.18	$17,235,119,275	16 / 8
2026-09-05	$18.18	$17,235,119,275	17 / 9
2026-09-06	$18.18	$17,235,119,275	17 / 9
2026-09-07	$18.18	$17,235,119,275	17 / 9
2026-09-08	$18.18	$17,235,119,275	17 / 9
2026-09-09	$18.19	$17,235,119,275	17 / 9
2026-09-10	$18.19	$17,235,119,275	17 / 9
2026-09-11	$18.35	$17,235,119,275	17 / 9
2026-09-12	$18.35	$17,235,119,275	16 / 9
2026-09-13	$18.35	$17,235,119,275	16 / 8
2026-09-14	$18.35	$17,235,119,275	16 / 8
2026-09-15	$18.34	$17,235,119,275	16 / 8
2026-09-16	$18.34	$17,235,119,275	16 / 8
2026-09-17	$18.34	$17,235,119,275	16 / 8
2026-09-18	$18.34	$17,235,119,275	16 / 8
2026-09-19	$18.34	$17,235,119,275	16 / 8
2026-09-20	$18.57	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-09-21	$18.57	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-09-22	$18.57	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-09-23	$18.57	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-09-24	$18.57	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-09-25	$18.57	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-09-26	$18.66	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-09-27	$18.66	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-09-28	$18.66	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-09-29	$18.66	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-09-30	$18.66	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-10-01	$18.66	$17,351,877,188	16 / 8
2026-10-02	$18.66	$17,399,239,275	16 / 8
2026-10-03	$18.64	$17,405,792,405	16 / 8
2026-10-04	$18.75	$17,405,792,405	16 / 8
2026-10-05	$18.75	$17,405,792,405	16 / 8
2026-10-06	$18.75	$17,405,792,405	16 / 8
2026-10-07	$18.84	$17,450,618,492	16 / 8
2026-10-08	$18.84	$17,450,618,492	16 / 8
2026-10-09	$18.84	$17,450,618,492	16 / 8
2026-10-10	$18.84	$17,450,618,492	16 / 8
2026-10-11	$19.03	$17,450,618,492	16 / 8
2026-10-12	$19.03	$17,450,618,492	16 / 8
2026-10-13	$19.14	$17,520,705,448	16 / 9
2026-10-14	$19.24	$17,551,444,579	16 / 9
2026-10-15	$19.52	$17,640,173,904	17 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	26	5
2026-06-01	26	5
2026-07-01	25	4
2026-08-01	26	5
2026-09-01	26	6
2026-10-01	26	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Jun 29

$216.00 → $222.00+2.8%

ScotiabankOct 14

$250.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesOct 11 · prior Aug 9

$205.00 → $215.00+4.9%

StephensSep 17

$255.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$140.25$280.50

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Full-year cash capital expenditures near $3.9 billionCapital expenditures: $996M
Base cash dividend at least $1.10 per share in Q1 2026Required source inputs unavailable
Stable management and leadership confidencePublished status: Under Pressure
Annual oil production above 520 MBO/dRevenue: $5.562B

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Diamondback Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a cyclical play within the energy sector, which is currently experiencing a favorable backdrop. The thesis is in a watch state due to recent weak financial performance compared to peers, despite some positive developments.

What's priced into Diamondback Energy

The current valuation suggests that FANG is priced relatively cheaply compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully account for potential upside. The fragility of this valuation is low, as it reflects a turbulent sector regime rather than a broader expensive and weak environment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentally, FANG's recent performance has been weak, with a notable drop in company momentum. However, management is focused on increasing production and maintaining disciplined capital expenditures, which could support future performance if executed well.

What Diamondback Energy hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate, which could benefit the energy sector. Additionally, FANG's ability to maintain or improve guidance in upcoming calls will be critical, especially given the recent history of missing estimates.