First American Financial Corporation (FAF)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$64.72-0.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First American Financial Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.02B
EPS	—	1.645
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	1.9B
EPS	—	1.262
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	8.05B
EPS	—	6.766
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	8.1B
EPS	—	6.772

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow yield near 11%	The company keeps profit margins stable and delivers steady cash flow.	Intact	Free cash flow yield falls below 11%	Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at least 6.8 USD in FY26	Earnings per share are expected near 6.8 dollars this year.	Broken	EPS falls below 6.8 USD in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.72 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6.8 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 23, 20261.72 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ba08a5e6-8d6c-41c1-a198-68ad8630f666. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least 7.5 billion USD in FY26	A primary condition in First American Financial Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.5 USD_BILLIONS.	Intact	Revenue falls below 7.5 billion USD in FY26	Revenue: $2.085B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7.5 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 23, 20262,084,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ba08a5e6-8d6c-41c1-a198-68ad8630f666. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
PE ratio remains below peer median of 15.34	It trades at a price-to-earnings ratio below peers, showing value.	Intact	PE ratio rises above 15.34	P/E (TTM): 9.01x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20269.0139 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: FAF:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	$7.44	$8,487,800,530	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$7.44	$8,487,800,530	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$7.45	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-29	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-31	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-10	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-11	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	1
2026-06-01	5	0
2026-07-01	6	0
2026-08-01	6	0
2026-09-01	6	0
2026-10-01	6	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 23 · prior Oct 15

$80.00 → $78.00-2.5%

BarclaysOct 23

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$44.00$88.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow yield near 11%Valuation inputs unavailable
EPS at least 6.8 USD in FY26Published status: Broken
Revenue reaches at least 7.5 billion USD in FY26Revenue: $2.085B
PE ratio remains below peer median of 15.34P/E (TTM): 9.01x

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First American Financial Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FAF is a cyclical financial business with a value-oriented setup, rather than a steady growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, though recent momentum weakened sharply after the latest earnings report.

What's priced into First American Financial Corporation

FAF is described as cheap versus peers, and the evidence does not show a high level of fragility priced into the shares. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting market expectations may still be ahead of what the evidence supports; the valuation model has high confidence, but the broader evidence snapshot has medium confidence.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, results have been strong relative to the industry, with higher title revenue, commercial revenue, and investment income in the latest quarter. However, FAF missed its most recent earnings report, momentum fell sharply, and earnings quality is fragile; AI modernization remains a stated priority without quantified evidence of results. The sector backdrop is a headwind, while management is stable and near-term miss risk is rated quiet.

What First American Financial Corporation hinges on

The near-term test is whether FAF avoids a guidance cut, since the evidence flags one as a meaningful negative. The multi-year view also depends on commercial growth and investment income continuing to support results, while AI execution remains difficult to assess. Sector conditions matter: continued strength from FNF, ACT, and ESNT could support momentum, while Fed rate cuts are flagged as a sector risk.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, FAF’s long-term thesis rests on sustained operating performance and commercial growth, set against fragile earnings quality and a headwind-prone sector. The recent miss weakens the near-term picture, even as the thesis remains intact. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.02B
EPS	—	1.645
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	1.9B
EPS	—	1.262
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	8.05B
EPS	—	6.766
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	8.1B
EPS	—	6.772

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	$7.44	$8,487,800,530	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$7.44	$8,487,800,530	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$7.45	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-29	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-31	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-10	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-11	$7.40	$8,518,240,529	6 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings