Expedia Group (EXPE)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$288.95-1.00%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Expedia Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

24.44 → 24.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 22 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 22 to 22; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand adjusted EBITDA margin to about 15.8% in Q1 2026	A primary condition in Expedia Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= 15.8%.	Improving	Margin falls below 12% in next four quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded from 9.9% in 2025-Q2 to 25.9% in 2026-Q2, with Adjusted EBITDA growth of 23% in the latest quarter. Management has consistently emphasized margin expansion and the financials show delivering progress with significant margin improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Grow gross bookings to at least $15.8 billion in FY26	Expedia grew gross bookings 13% to $35.5 billion in Q1 2026.	Intact	Gross bookings fall below $15 billion in FY26	Revenue: $4.315B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15.8 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20264,315,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7b8f3408-6004-489e-aba6-3987c754d348. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Total gross bookings increased from $30.4B in 2025-Q2 to $33.9B in 2026-Q2 (+12%), with B2B segment growing 21% over the same period. Management's focus on growing gross bookings is supported by consistent double-digit growth in bookings. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Repurchase at least $700 million in shares in Q1 2026	The company bought back $700 million in shares.	Intact	Share buybacks drop below $500 million in next four quarters	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$24.68

$22.96 → $24.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$17.36B

$17.15B → $17.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$22.96	$17,150,519,300	29 / 34
2026-07-25	$22.97	$17,149,361,600	30 / 35
2026-07-26	$23.06	$17,147,156,691	20 / 27
2026-07-27	$22.97	$17,149,361,600	30 / 35
2026-07-28	$23.06	$17,147,156,691	20 / 27
2026-07-29	$23.06	$17,154,065,782	20 / 27
2026-07-30	$23.06	$17,154,065,782	20 / 27
2026-07-31	$23.06	$17,154,065,782	20 / 27
2026-08-01	$23.06	$17,154,065,782	20 / 27
2026-08-02	$22.91	$17,144,637,960	30 / 35
2026-08-03	$22.91	$17,144,637,960	30 / 35
2026-08-04	$22.91	$17,144,637,960	30 / 35
2026-08-05	$22.96	$17,147,360,300	31 / 36
2026-08-06	$22.96	$17,147,360,300	31 / 36
2026-08-07	$23.47	$17,270,984,593	21 / 27
2026-08-08	$23.58	$17,295,976,290	31 / 36
2026-08-09	$23.47	$17,270,984,593	21 / 27
2026-08-10	$23.58	$17,295,976,290	31 / 36
2026-08-11	$23.47	$17,270,984,593	21 / 27
2026-08-12	$23.47	$17,270,984,593	21 / 27
2026-08-13	$24.01	$17,326,523,350	31 / 36
2026-08-14	$23.47	$17,270,984,593	21 / 27
2026-08-15	$23.47	$17,270,984,593	21 / 27
2026-08-16	$23.47	$17,270,984,593	21 / 27
2026-08-17	$23.47	$17,270,984,593	21 / 27
2026-08-18	$23.47	$17,270,984,593	21 / 27
2026-08-19	$23.47	$17,270,984,593	21 / 27
2026-08-20	$24.03	$17,341,119,338	21 / 27
2026-08-21	$24.10	$17,349,269,906	22 / 27
2026-08-22	$24.16	$17,351,265,034	22 / 27
2026-08-23	$24.16	$17,368,448,942	22 / 27
2026-08-24	$24.16	$17,368,448,942	22 / 27
2026-08-25	$24.16	$17,368,448,942	22 / 27
2026-08-26	$24.16	$17,368,462,597	22 / 27
2026-08-27	$24.16	$17,368,462,597	22 / 27
2026-08-28	$24.16	$17,368,462,597	22 / 27
2026-08-29	$24.16	$17,368,462,597	22 / 27
2026-08-30	$24.16	$17,368,462,592	21 / 27
2026-08-31	$24.16	$17,368,462,592	21 / 27
2026-09-01	$24.16	$17,368,462,592	21 / 27
2026-09-02	$24.16	$17,364,657,946	21 / 27
2026-09-03	$24.37	$17,364,657,946	22 / 27
2026-09-04	$24.46	$17,364,657,946	22 / 28
2026-09-05	$24.46	$17,364,657,946	22 / 28
2026-09-06	$24.46	$17,364,657,946	22 / 28
2026-09-07	$24.46	$17,364,666,400	22 / 28
2026-09-08	$24.46	$17,364,666,400	22 / 28
2026-09-09	$24.46	$17,364,666,400	22 / 28
2026-09-10	$24.46	$17,364,666,400	22 / 28
2026-09-11	$24.46	$17,364,666,406	22 / 28
2026-09-12	$24.44	$17,363,370,117	22 / 28
2026-09-13	$24.44	$17,363,370,117	22 / 28
2026-09-14	$24.44	$17,363,370,117	22 / 28
2026-09-15	$24.44	$17,375,372,412	22 / 28
2026-09-16	$24.44	$17,375,372,412	22 / 28
2026-09-17	$24.47	$17,366,016,740	22 / 28
2026-09-18	$24.47	$17,366,016,740	22 / 28
2026-09-19	$24.47	$17,366,016,740	22 / 27
2026-09-20	$24.47	$17,366,016,740	22 / 28
2026-09-21	$24.47	$17,366,016,740	22 / 28
2026-09-22	$24.47	$17,366,016,740	22 / 28
2026-09-23	$24.47	$17,366,016,740	22 / 28
2026-09-24	$24.47	$17,366,016,740	22 / 28
2026-09-25	$24.47	$17,366,016,740	22 / 28
2026-09-26	$24.47	$17,366,016,740	22 / 28
2026-09-27	$24.47	$17,366,016,740	22 / 28
2026-09-28	$24.47	$17,366,016,440	22 / 28
2026-09-29	$24.47	$17,366,016,440	22 / 28
2026-09-30	$24.48	$17,366,016,440	22 / 28
2026-10-01	$24.53	$17,373,359,297	22 / 28
2026-10-02	$24.53	$17,373,359,297	22 / 28
2026-10-03	$24.53	$17,373,359,297	22 / 28
2026-10-04	$24.53	$17,373,359,306	22 / 28
2026-10-05	$24.53	$17,373,359,306	22 / 28
2026-10-06	$24.53	$17,373,359,306	22 / 27
2026-10-07	$24.55	$17,377,201,420	22 / 27
2026-10-08	$24.55	$17,370,601,420	22 / 27
2026-10-09	$24.54	$17,368,716,877	22 / 27
2026-10-10	$24.56	$17,367,607,600	22 / 27
2026-10-11	$24.56	$17,367,607,600	22 / 27
2026-10-12	$24.56	$17,367,607,600	22 / 27
2026-10-13	$24.56	$17,363,749,145	22 / 27
2026-10-14	$24.68	$17,363,751,081	22 / 27
2026-10-15	$24.68	$17,363,751,081	22 / 27

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	22	0
2026-06-01	16	21	0
2026-07-01	17	21	1
2026-08-01	17	21	1
2026-09-01	17	22	2
2026-10-01	17	21	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 21 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 7 · prior Jun 30

$303.00 → $275.00-9.2%

Truist FinancialSep 30

$288.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleySep 16 · prior Jul 30

$300.00 → $235.00-21.7%

$0$166.65$333.30

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Expand adjusted EBITDA margin to about 15.8% in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Grow gross bookings to at least $15.8 billion in FY26Revenue: $4.315B
Repurchase at least $700 million in shares in Q1 2026Required source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Expedia Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

EXPE represents a speculative growth investment with a focus on expanding margins and gross bookings. The current thesis state is weakened, as recent performance has dropped relative to its industry peers.

What's priced into Expedia Group

The market appears to price EXPE as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. However, the valuation is justified given the current fundamentals and the low fragility tier.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities like expanding Adjusted EBITDA margins and increasing gross bookings, which have shown positive growth. However, the company remains loss-making, and the recent financial performance has been neutral.

What Expedia Group hinges on

The thesis hinges on EXPE's ability to maintain momentum in a challenging sector, particularly if competitors continue to perform well. Additionally, any reversal in guidance or inflationary pressures could negatively impact the outlook.