Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$4.93-2.76%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Evolv aims for 20% to 23% revenue growth in 2026. Q1 revenue grew from $38.5M to $46.3M. The company targets positive adjusted EBITDA with high single-digit margins. AI-based security screening drives growth and subscription sales.
Evolv is still loss-making and volatile. Profitability may not improve in 2026. Litigation and management changes add risks. Revenue growth could slow below 20%.
The market expects about 20% revenue growth in 2026. Our fair value is $1.64, close to the current price. We see risk in profitability and execution.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA margin remains negative through FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 19% in FY26
Subscription share of new deployments falls below 35% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth bet, as the company is currently loss-making and facing headwinds in its sector. The thesis is in a watch state, reflecting uncertainty due to recent litigation and weak financial results.
The market seems to price in a level of fragility, as the valuation is considered expensive relative to peers despite the company's recent struggles. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for the company's challenges.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, given the company's weak recent financial performance and ongoing litigation. However, management is on track to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA and has raised revenue guidance, which could provide some support.
The future of EVLV hinges on its ability to maintain or improve financial performance, particularly in light of sector trends from key competitors. Additionally, any further negative developments, such as guidance cuts or missed earnings, could significantly impact investor confidence.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Revenue growth of approximately 20% to 23% in 2026 supports this improvement. The raised guidance aligns with growth expectations for the year. Record customer growth also reinforces the positive outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, EVLV faces a challenging environment with elevated risks and mixed management execution. Not investment advice.