EQT Corporation (EQT)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$54.30+3.53%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge EQT Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.85 → 3.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital spending within $2.07-$2.21 billion in FY26	Capital spending is disciplined and production is on track.	Intact	Capital expenditures exceed $2.21 billion or fall below $2.07 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $650.171M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 2070000000-2210000000 USD. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 22, 2026650,171,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow >= $3.5 billion in FY26	The company aims for free cash flow above $3.5 billion in 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $3.5 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $397.841M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3500000000 USD. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 22, 2026397,841,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sales volume >= 618 Bcfe in Q1 2026	A primary condition in EQT Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=618 Bcfe.	Intact	Sales volume falls below 618 Bcfe in Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue decline limited to -5% in FY26	A supporting condition in EQT Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=-5.3% YoY.	Broken	Revenue declines more than 5.3% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.84

$4.43 → $3.84 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$9.17B

$9.31B → $9.17B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.43	$9,311,630,840	10 / 10
2026-07-25	$4.26	$9,436,231,340	12 / 11
2026-07-26	$4.26	$9,436,231,340	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$4.26	$9,436,231,340	12 / 11
2026-07-28	$4.01	$9,432,543,652	10 / 8
2026-07-29	$4.38	$9,253,288,600	11 / 11
2026-07-30	$4.01	$9,432,543,652	10 / 8
2026-07-31	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-01	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-02	$4.38	$9,253,288,600	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-04	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-05	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-06	$4.37	$9,243,606,790	11 / 11
2026-08-07	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-08	$4.37	$9,242,706,690	11 / 11
2026-08-09	$4.37	$9,242,706,690	11 / 11
2026-08-10	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-11	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-12	$4.37	$9,242,706,690	11 / 11
2026-08-13	$4.37	$9,242,706,690	11 / 11
2026-08-14	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-15	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-16	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-17	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-18	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	10 / 9
2026-08-19	$4.01	$9,442,271,596	9 / 9
2026-08-20	$4.03	$9,344,280,741	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$3.94	$9,275,729,134	9 / 9
2026-08-22	$3.94	$9,275,729,134	9 / 9
2026-08-23	$3.94	$9,275,729,134	9 / 9
2026-08-24	$3.94	$9,275,729,134	9 / 9
2026-08-25	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-08-26	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-08-27	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-08-28	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-08-29	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-08-30	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-08-31	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-01	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-02	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-03	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-04	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-05	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-06	$3.92	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-07	$3.87	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-08	$3.87	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-09	$3.87	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-10	$3.87	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-11	$3.86	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-12	$3.86	$9,275,199,723	9 / 9
2026-09-13	$3.85	$9,258,552,664	9 / 9
2026-09-14	$3.85	$9,258,552,664	9 / 9
2026-09-15	$3.85	$9,258,552,664	9 / 9
2026-09-16	$3.85	$9,259,730,109	9 / 9
2026-09-17	$3.85	$9,253,152,385	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$3.85	$9,253,152,385	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$3.85	$9,253,152,385	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$3.94	$9,243,870,032	9 / 9
2026-09-21	$3.86	$9,243,870,032	9 / 9
2026-09-22	$3.86	$9,212,340,621	9 / 9
2026-09-23	$3.86	$9,212,340,621	9 / 9
2026-09-24	$3.86	$9,212,340,621	9 / 9
2026-09-25	$3.87	$9,215,856,697	9 / 9
2026-09-26	$3.87	$9,215,856,697	9 / 9
2026-09-27	$3.87	$9,215,856,697	9 / 9
2026-09-28	$3.87	$9,215,856,697	9 / 9
2026-09-29	$3.87	$9,215,856,697	9 / 9
2026-09-30	$3.87	$9,215,856,697	9 / 9
2026-10-01	$3.81	$9,157,680,227	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$3.81	$9,165,830,227	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$3.82	$9,170,252,697	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$3.82	$9,170,252,697	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.82	$9,170,252,697	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.82	$9,170,252,697	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.82	$9,170,252,697	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.82	$9,170,252,697	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$3.82	$9,170,252,697	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$3.82	$9,170,252,697	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$3.79	$9,170,252,697	9 / 8
2026-10-12	$3.79	$9,170,252,697	9 / 8
2026-10-13	$3.86	$9,170,252,697	9 / 8
2026-10-14	$3.86	$9,170,252,697	9 / 8
2026-10-15	$3.84	$9,170,252,697	9 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	19	6
2026-06-01	19	6
2026-07-01	20	6
2026-08-01	21	5
2026-09-01	22	4
2026-10-01	22	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankOct 14

$54.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$29.70$59.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital spending within $2.07-$2.21 billion in FY26Capital expenditures: $650.171M
Free cash flow >= $3.5 billion in FY26Free cash flow: $397.841M
Sales volume >= 618 Bcfe in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue decline limited to -5% in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

EQT Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on energy production. The current thesis state is stable, supported by consistent management execution and a favorable sector environment.

What's priced into EQT Corporation

EQT is currently valued as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. The market seems to be pricing in a moderate level of risk, reflecting the sector's recent turbulence rather than a complete downturn.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown strong performance in achieving production guidance and maintaining disciplined capital expenditures. However, free cash flow generation is lagging behind expectations, which could pose challenges in the near term.

What EQT Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on EQT's ability to maintain production guidance and manage capital expenditures effectively. Additionally, sector performance, particularly from leading companies, and inflation trends will be crucial for future momentum.