EPAM Systems (EPAM)

NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$122.19-0.06%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge EPAM Systems’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.11 → 14.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Progress in AI-native transformation continues	A supporting condition in EPAM Systems's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve progress score above 80%.	Improving	Progress score falls below 70% in next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS meets or exceeds $8.44 in FY26	A primary condition in EPAM Systems's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.44 USD per share.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $8.44 for FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.97 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8.44 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261.97 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 09bd914b-ede5-486e-ae89-4dfa7f3e85a4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income grows at least 10% annually	EPAM is growing revenue about 7.6% yearly and raised operating income 17.6% in the last year.	Broken	Operating income growth falls below 10% YoY in FY26	Operating income: $152.222M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 6, 2026152,222,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 09bd914b-ede5-486e-ae89-4dfa7f3e85a4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue increased from $1.302B in 2025-Q1 to $1.415B in 2026-Q2, with operating income rising from $99.3M to $152.2M. Management's guidance for 2026 revenue growth is 3.2%-4.2% with operating margin expansion, showing delivering profitable growth consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue grows at or above consensus 6% annually	A primary condition in EPAM Systems's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Revenue: $1.415B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 6, 20261,414,767,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 09bd914b-ede5-486e-ae89-4dfa7f3e85a4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$14.08

$14.20 → $14.08 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.85B

$6.06B → $5.85B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.20	$6,058,292,527	14 / 16
2026-07-25	$14.13	$6,054,635,800	19 / 19
2026-07-26	$14.19	$6,055,369,633	14 / 16
2026-07-27	$14.13	$6,054,635,800	19 / 19
2026-07-28	$14.19	$6,055,369,633	14 / 16
2026-07-29	$14.13	$6,054,635,800	19 / 19
2026-07-30	$14.13	$6,054,635,800	19 / 19
2026-07-31	$14.19	$6,055,369,636	14 / 15
2026-08-01	$14.19	$6,055,369,636	14 / 15
2026-08-02	$14.13	$6,054,635,800	19 / 19
2026-08-03	$14.19	$6,055,369,636	14 / 15
2026-08-04	$14.13	$6,054,635,800	19 / 19
2026-08-05	$14.18	$6,051,052,330	14 / 15
2026-08-06	$14.18	$6,051,052,330	14 / 15
2026-08-07	$14.18	$6,048,757,552	14 / 15
2026-08-08	$14.18	$6,048,757,552	14 / 15
2026-08-09	$14.06	$5,918,853,680	18 / 18
2026-08-10	$14.18	$6,048,757,552	14 / 15
2026-08-11	$14.07	$5,881,336,000	18 / 18
2026-08-12	$14.04	$5,855,190,260	18 / 18
2026-08-13	$14.18	$6,048,757,552	14 / 15
2026-08-14	$14.18	$6,048,757,552	14 / 15
2026-08-15	$14.18	$6,048,757,552	13 / 15
2026-08-16	$14.18	$6,048,757,552	13 / 15
2026-08-17	$14.18	$6,048,757,552	13 / 15
2026-08-18	$14.18	$6,048,757,552	14 / 15
2026-08-19	$14.18	$6,048,757,552	14 / 15
2026-08-20	$14.10	$5,850,922,825	14 / 15
2026-08-21	$14.10	$5,850,922,825	14 / 15
2026-08-22	$14.10	$5,850,922,825	14 / 15
2026-08-23	$14.10	$5,850,922,825	14 / 15
2026-08-24	$14.10	$5,850,922,825	14 / 15
2026-08-25	$14.10	$5,850,922,826	14 / 15
2026-08-26	$14.11	$5,850,922,826	14 / 15
2026-08-27	$14.11	$5,850,922,826	14 / 15
2026-08-28	$14.11	$5,850,922,826	14 / 15
2026-08-29	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-08-30	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-08-31	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-01	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-02	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-03	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-04	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-05	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-06	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-07	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-08	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-09	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-10	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-11	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-12	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-13	$14.11	$5,851,070,548	14 / 15
2026-09-14	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-15	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-16	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-17	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-18	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-19	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-20	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-21	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-22	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-23	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-24	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-25	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-26	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-27	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-28	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-29	$14.11	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-09-30	$14.10	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-10-01	$14.10	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-10-02	$14.10	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-10-03	$14.10	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-10-04	$14.10	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-10-05	$14.10	$5,851,070,547	14 / 15
2026-10-06	$14.10	$5,851,082,919	14 / 15
2026-10-07	$14.10	$5,852,060,697	14 / 15
2026-10-08	$14.10	$5,852,060,697	14 / 15
2026-10-09	$14.10	$5,852,060,697	14 / 15
2026-10-10	$14.10	$5,852,062,830	14 / 15
2026-10-11	$14.10	$5,852,062,830	14 / 15
2026-10-12	$14.10	$5,852,050,458	14 / 15
2026-10-13	$14.10	$5,852,050,458	14 / 15
2026-10-14	$14.08	$5,845,983,792	14 / 15
2026-10-15	$14.08	$5,845,983,792	13 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	8
2026-06-01	12	9
2026-07-01	12	9
2026-08-01	11	10
2026-09-01	9	11
2026-10-01	9	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Progress in AI-native transformation continuesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS meets or exceeds $8.44 in FY26Published status: Broken
Operating income grows at least 10% annuallyPublished status: Broken
Revenue grows at or above consensus 6% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-65.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

EPAM Systems outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a long-term thesis on a technology services company that is working to transform its offerings through AI. The current state reflects a mix of stable growth and ongoing challenges, with management focused on profitable expansion.

What's priced into EPAM Systems

The market currently prices EPAM as cheap compared to its peers, indicating that investors may have low expectations for future performance. The company's recent earnings beats suggest that while there is some optimism, the expectations gap remains narrow.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown a commitment to driving growth and profitability, as evidenced by recent revenue increases and operating income improvements. However, the earnings quality is fragile, and there is a risk of guidance cuts that could negatively impact sentiment.

What EPAM Systems hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for favorable interest rate changes, the performance of sector leaders, and EPAM's ability to maintain its current growth trajectory without cutting guidance. Monitoring these elements will be crucial for future performance.