NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve free cash flow of $3.5B-$3.6B: FCF guidance $3.6B vs $3.5B target.
Emerson grows sales about 3-4% yearly with steady profit. It targets $3.5B to $3.6B free cash flow in 2026. The company plans to return $2.2B to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Profit per share is guided near $4.8 for 2026.
Sales growth may slow below 3% due to sector headwinds. Free cash flow progress is slow, with only $694M in Q2. The company’s EPS guidance is soft, risking a miss. Rising debt from recent credit deals could pressure capital returns.
The market prices about 7% revenue growth and values shares near $143, just below our fair value. Our fair value is 5% below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism. We see risk in free cash flow delivery and EPS consistency.
Breaks if: Shareholder returns fall below $2.2B in 2026
Emerson plans to return approximately $2.2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and a commitment to shareholder returns.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with EMR being seen as cheap compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully anticipate future growth potential.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management focused on completing the AspenTech acquisition and maintaining strong free cash flow. However, there is a moderate risk of missing guidance, which could impact sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results and guidance of key competitors like GEV, PH, and TT. Any changes in their performance could significantly influence EMR's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Emerson Electric maintained its EPS guidance of $4.79-$4.89 for 2026. The company also aims to achieve $3.5B-$3.6B in free cash flow for 2026. Strong demand supports these financial targets and reinforces the growth outlook.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $4.79 for FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $3.5B in FY26
Maintain strong free cash flow generation target of approximately $3.5 to $3.6 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Management has maintained free cash flow guidance around $3.5 to $3.6 billion for 2026, supported by strong operational cash flow and capital expenditure discipline. The trajectory is delivering with consistent cash flow generation near guidance.
“Free Cash Flow ~$3.6B”
“Free Cash Flow $3.5B - $3.6B”
“Free Cash Flow $3.5B - $3.6B”
“Expectations for operating cash flow and free cash flow increase to ~$3.6B and ~$3.2B, respectively.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26
Overall, EMR's position is supported by solid recent results and strategic priorities, but it remains sensitive to sector trends and guidance. Not investment advice.
