Emerson Electric (EMR)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$161.47-0.42%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Emerson Electric’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Return $2.2B to shareholders in 2026	The company plans to return $2.2B to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.	Intact	Shareholder returns fall below $2.2B in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain EPS guidance of $4.79-$4.89	A primary condition in Emerson Electric's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.79 USD_PER_SHARE.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $4.79 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Management has consistently maintained EPS guidance in the range of approximately $4.79 to $4.89 for 2026, reflecting steady earnings expectations. The financial results and guidance show management is sustaining this priority with stable earnings outlook. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve free cash flow of $3.5B-$3.6B	It targets $3.5B to $3.6B free cash flow in 2026.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $3.5B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Management has maintained free cash flow guidance around $3.5 to $3.6 billion for 2026, supported by strong operational cash flow and capital expenditure discipline. The trajectory is delivering with consistent cash flow generation near guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 3-4% YoY	A primary condition in Emerson Electric's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26	Revenue growth: 7.03% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20267.028333 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0bbf9474-0251-415c-8299-a6602aabb0ef. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$8.08

$8.09 → $8.08 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$21.02B

$21.03B → $21.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	$8.09	$21,028,210,312	9 / 19
2026-10-02	$8.09	$21,028,210,312	9 / 19
2026-10-03	$8.09	$21,028,222,724	9 / 19
2026-10-04	$8.09	$21,028,222,724	9 / 19
2026-10-05	$8.09	$21,028,222,724	9 / 19
2026-10-06	$8.09	$21,028,222,724	9 / 19
2026-10-07	$8.09	$21,024,752,136	9 / 19
2026-10-08	$8.08	$21,024,752,136	9 / 19
2026-10-09	$8.08	$21,024,752,136	9 / 19
2026-10-10	$8.08	$21,024,752,136	9 / 19
2026-10-11	$8.08	$21,023,932,572	9 / 20
2026-10-12	$8.08	$21,023,932,572	9 / 20
2026-10-13	$8.08	$21,023,932,572	9 / 20
2026-10-14	$8.08	$21,023,932,572	9 / 20
2026-10-15	$8.08	$21,023,932,572	9 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	18	9	2
2026-06-01	19	10	2
2026-07-01	20	8	2
2026-08-01	19	8	3
2026-09-01	20	8	2
2026-10-01	20	8	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15

$180.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoSep 24

$177.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$99.00$198.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Return $2.2B to shareholders in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain EPS guidance of $4.79-$4.89Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve free cash flow of $3.5B-$3.6BPublished status: Under Pressure
Sustain revenue growth near 3-4% YoYPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Emerson Electric outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis is intact, driven by consistent shareholder returns and a focus on cash flow, though it faces challenges from sector dynamics.

What's priced into Emerson Electric

The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation relative to peers, with expectations that may not fully account for the fragility in earnings quality. The current premium over peers suggests that investors expect continued performance, but there is a notable expectations gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain mixed in the near term, as management aims to achieve its free cash flow targets while navigating a moderate risk environment. Recent earnings beats indicate some resilience, but the company's history of misses adds caution to the outlook.

What Emerson Electric hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and the successful execution of management's priorities, particularly the AspenTech acquisition. Any guidance cuts or negative trends in the sector could significantly impact EMR's trajectory.

Bottom line

Overall, EMR's prospects depend on maintaining operational performance amidst sector challenges and executing on strategic initiatives. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.