Emcor (EME)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$721.66-1.48%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Emcor’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

37.24 → 37.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
2026 EPS at or above $28.25	A primary condition in Emcor's published investment case. The stated target is >= $28.25 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $28.25 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $9.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $28.25 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20269.06 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0bd6b182-188d-46fa-91ca-9e7ed6e0f894. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management raised 2026 diluted EPS guidance from $28.25-$29.75 in 2026-Q1 to $32.00-$33.25 in 2026-Q2, supported by record quarterly diluted EPS of $9.06 in 2026-Q2, up 34.8% YoY. The trajectory aligns with management's repeated guidance increases and earnings growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating margin at or above 9.0%	A supporting condition in Emcor's published investment case. The stated target is >= 9.0%.	Broken	operating margin falls below 9.0% in FY26	Operating margin: 10.62% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 9.0%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202610.617875 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0bd6b182-188d-46fa-91ca-9e7ed6e0f894. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating margin guidance increased from 9.0%-9.4% in 2026-Q1 to 9.5%-9.8% in 2026-Q2. Actual operating margin improved from 9.0% in first six months of 2025 to 9.7% in first six months of 2026, indicating management is delivering on margin discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
2026 revenue at or above $18.5 billion	A primary condition in Emcor's published investment case. The stated target is >= $18.5 billion.	Under Pressure	annual revenue falls below $18.5 billion in FY26	Revenue: $5.155B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $18.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20265,154,892,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0bd6b182-188d-46fa-91ca-9e7ed6e0f894. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance from $18.50B-$19.25B in 2026-Q1 to $20.00B-$20.50B in 2026-Q2, reflecting record quarterly revenues of $5.15B in 2026-Q2, up 19.8% YoY. This trajectory matches management's stated focus on revenue growth and is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$37.25

$32.93 → $37.25 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$22.55B

$20.55B → $22.55B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$32.93	$20,548,811,100	10 / 10
2026-07-25	$32.93	$20,548,811,100	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$32.93	$20,548,811,100	10 / 10
2026-07-27	$32.93	$20,548,811,100	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$32.93	$20,548,811,100	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$32.93	$20,548,811,100	7 / 8
2026-07-30	$32.93	$20,548,811,100	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$32.93	$20,548,811,100	10 / 10
2026-08-01	$34.66	$21,054,144,800	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-03	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$35.54	$21,746,066,480	10 / 10
2026-08-05	$36.74	$22,314,126,480	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$36.74	$22,314,126,480	10 / 10
2026-08-07	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-09	$36.74	$22,314,126,480	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-11	$36.74	$22,314,126,480	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$36.74	$22,314,126,480	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$35.54	$21,746,106,481	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$36.74	$22,314,166,482	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$37.24	$22,540,166,482	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$37.24	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$37.25	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$37.25	$22,551,981,242	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$37.25	$22,551,986,072	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$37.25	$22,551,986,072	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$37.25	$22,551,986,072	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$37.25	$22,551,986,072	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$37.25	$22,551,986,072	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$37.25	$22,551,986,072	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$37.25	$22,551,986,072	8 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	3
2026-06-01	7	3
2026-07-01	7	3
2026-08-01	7	3
2026-09-01	7	3
2026-10-01	7	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

2026 EPS at or above $28.25Published status: Under Pressure
Operating margin at or above 9.0%Published status: Broken
2026 revenue at or above $18.5 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Emcor outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to increasing guidance.

What's priced into Emcor

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with EME appearing cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some positive performance is anticipated but not fully reflected in the current valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue improving, as management is on track with their revenue and earnings guidance. However, there is a low probability of missing expectations, though recent industry trends could pose risks.

What Emcor hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and APG. If these companies continue to exceed earnings expectations, it could provide a favorable environment for EME. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact EME's momentum.