Elevance Health (ELV)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-10-15

$428.26-0.04%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Elevance Health’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

29.64 → 29.63 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
FY 2026 adjusted diluted EPS at least $26.75	A primary condition in Elevance Health's published investment case. The stated target is >=26.75 USD per share.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $25.5 for FY 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. FY 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance was raised from $25.50 in 2025-Q4 to $27.00 in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong operating results and underlying business strength. Management has consistently raised or reaffirmed this guidance, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating cash flow at least $5.5 billion in FY 2026	The company generates strong cash flow, targeting at least $5.5 billion in operating cash flow.	Intact	Operating cash flow falls below $5.0 billion in FY 2026	Cash from operations: $1.913B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.5 USD billion. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 15, 20261,913,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reaffirmed or raised in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating cash flow guidance increased from $5.5 billion in 2026-Q1 to $6.0 billion in 2026-Q2. Actual operating cash flow was $4.3 billion in 2026-Q1 and $1.9 billion in 2026-Q2, reflecting timing of payments and underlying business strength. The trajectory matches management's stated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth near 0% or better	A supporting condition in Elevance Health's published investment case. The stated target is >=0% YoY.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below -1% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchases continue with at least $1.1 billion in Q1 2026	The company generates strong cash flow, targeting at least $5.5 billion in operating cash flow.	Intact	Buybacks drop below $0.8 billion per quarter	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The company repurchased shares each quarter, including 0.7 million shares for $234 million in 2026-Q2, with Board authorization declining from $8.0 billion in 2025-Q2 to $5.3 billion in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering consistent execution of the share repurchase program. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$29.63

$29.63 → $29.63 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$201.45B

$200.35B → $201.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$29.63	$200,346,337,780	21 / 12
2026-07-25	$29.63	$200,388,921,110	21 / 12
2026-07-26	$29.63	$200,388,921,110	21 / 12
2026-07-27	$29.58	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-07-28	$29.58	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-07-29	$29.58	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-07-30	$29.58	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-07-31	$29.63	$200,388,921,110	21 / 12
2026-08-01	$29.58	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-02	$29.58	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-03	$29.63	$200,388,921,110	21 / 12
2026-08-04	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-05	$29.63	$200,388,921,110	21 / 12
2026-08-06	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-07	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-08	$29.63	$200,388,921,110	21 / 12
2026-08-09	$29.63	$200,388,921,110	21 / 12
2026-08-10	$29.63	$200,388,921,110	21 / 12
2026-08-11	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-12	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-13	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-14	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-15	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-16	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-17	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-18	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-19	$29.64	$201,374,889,455	14 / 14
2026-08-20	$29.64	$201,479,965,686	14 / 14
2026-08-21	$29.64	$201,479,965,686	14 / 14
2026-08-22	$29.64	$201,479,965,686	14 / 14
2026-08-23	$29.64	$201,479,965,686	14 / 14
2026-08-24	$29.64	$201,479,965,686	14 / 14
2026-08-25	$29.64	$201,479,965,686	14 / 14
2026-08-26	$29.64	$201,479,965,686	14 / 14
2026-08-27	$29.64	$201,479,965,686	14 / 14
2026-08-28	$29.64	$201,479,965,686	14 / 14
2026-08-29	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-08-30	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-08-31	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-01	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-02	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-03	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-04	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-05	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-06	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-07	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-08	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-09	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-10	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-11	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-12	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-13	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-14	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-15	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-16	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-17	$29.64	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-18	$29.57	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-19	$29.57	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-20	$29.57	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-21	$29.57	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-22	$29.57	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-23	$29.57	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-24	$29.57	$201,589,988,769	14 / 14
2026-09-25	$29.57	$201,861,877,658	14 / 15
2026-09-26	$29.57	$201,861,877,658	14 / 15
2026-09-27	$29.57	$201,861,877,658	14 / 15
2026-09-28	$29.57	$201,861,877,658	14 / 15
2026-09-29	$29.57	$201,861,877,658	14 / 15
2026-09-30	$29.57	$201,861,877,658	14 / 15
2026-10-01	$29.57	$201,861,877,658	14 / 14
2026-10-02	$29.57	$201,861,877,658	14 / 15
2026-10-03	$29.57	$201,861,877,658	14 / 15
2026-10-04	$29.57	$201,861,877,658	13 / 14
2026-10-05	$29.57	$201,861,877,658	13 / 14
2026-10-06	$29.61	$201,426,160,992	13 / 14
2026-10-07	$29.62	$201,426,160,992	13 / 13
2026-10-08	$29.62	$201,426,160,992	13 / 13
2026-10-09	$29.62	$201,321,349,880	13 / 13
2026-10-10	$29.62	$201,321,349,880	13 / 13
2026-10-11	$29.62	$201,321,349,880	13 / 13
2026-10-12	$29.62	$201,321,349,880	13 / 13
2026-10-13	$29.63	$201,321,349,880	13 / 13
2026-10-14	$29.63	$201,449,510,992	13 / 13
2026-10-15	$29.63	$201,449,510,992	13 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	8
2026-06-01	15	8
2026-07-01	15	8
2026-08-01	15	7
2026-09-01	15	8
2026-10-01	15	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

GuggenheimOct 12 · prior Jul 16

$455.00 → $460.00+1.1%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 16

$457.00 → $469.00+2.6%

$0$257.95$515.90

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

FY 2026 adjusted diluted EPS at least $26.75Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Operating cash flow at least $5.5 billion in FY 2026Cash from operations: $1.913B
Revenue growth near 0% or betterDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Share repurchases continue with at least $1.1 billion in Q1 2026Required source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Elevance Health outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent financial performance. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong results, although management execution has been mixed.

What's priced into Elevance Health

The valuation appears cheap compared to peers, indicating that the market has low expectations for significant growth. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that the market is not fully pricing in the potential for continued strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given the strong recent financial performance and management's reaffirmation of guidance. However, there is a moderate risk due to potential economic headwinds that could affect performance.

What Elevance Health hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain or raise guidance, as well as the performance of sector peers like UNH, CVS, and CI. Any negative shifts in economic indicators, such as a weakening jobs report, could also impact the outlook.