Estée Lauder Companies (The) (EL)

NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$104.54-2.47%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Estée Lauder Companies (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.94 → 3.94 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted operating margin near 15%	A primary condition in Estée Lauder Companies (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is ~15% margin.	Improving	adjusted operating margin falls below 10% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted operating margin expanded from 7.3% in 2026-Q1 to 11.2% in 2026-Q4, reflecting operational efficiencies and cost discipline funded by the PRGP. Management raised fiscal 2027 margin guidance to 12.7%-13.5%, indicating continued focus and delivery on margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Capital expenditures below $1.7 billion	A supporting condition in Estée Lauder Companies (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is <= $1.7B.	Intact	capital expenditures exceed $1.7B in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. The PRGP delivered total gross benefits of $1.2 billion and a net reduction of 10,000 positions, with restructuring charges slightly above $1.7 billion. Management has consistently reported progress ahead of expectations, indicating delivery on this multi-year operational improvement plan. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow above $800 million	The company is cutting costs and boosting free cash flow to nearly $900 million.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $600M next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. The PRGP delivered total gross benefits of $1.2 billion and a net reduction of 10,000 positions, with restructuring charges slightly above $1.7 billion. Management has consistently reported progress ahead of expectations, indicating delivery on this multi-year operational improvement plan. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Organic sales growth of at least 3% YoY	A primary condition in Estée Lauder Companies (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY.	Intact	organic sales growth falls below 2% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Organic net sales grew from a decline of 8% in 2025-Q4 to positive growth of 3% in 2026-Q1, 4% in 2026-Q2, and accelerated to 5% in 2026-Q4. Management consistently emphasized accelerating organic sales growth, and the financials show a trajectory delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.94

$3.84 → $3.94 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$16.42B

$16.23B → $16.42B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.84	$16,226,968,550	10 / 19
2026-07-25	$3.84	$16,226,968,550	10 / 19
2026-07-26	$3.83	$16,232,708,021	10 / 19
2026-07-27	$3.83	$16,232,708,021	10 / 19
2026-07-28	$3.83	$16,232,708,021	10 / 19
2026-07-29	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-07-30	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-07-31	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-01	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-02	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-03	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-04	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-05	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-06	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-07	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-08	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-09	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-10	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-11	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-12	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-13	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-14	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-15	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-16	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-17	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-18	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-19	$3.83	$16,229,708,021	10 / 19
2026-08-20	$3.89	$16,363,100,690	15 / 19
2026-08-21	$3.93	$16,389,596,871	14 / 17
2026-08-22	$3.94	$16,405,843,449	14 / 18
2026-08-23	$3.94	$16,405,843,449	15 / 18
2026-08-24	$3.94	$16,405,843,449	15 / 18
2026-08-25	$3.94	$16,405,843,449	15 / 18
2026-08-26	$3.94	$16,410,415,321	15 / 19
2026-08-27	$3.94	$16,410,415,321	15 / 19
2026-08-28	$3.94	$16,410,415,321	16 / 19
2026-08-29	$3.94	$16,410,415,321	16 / 19
2026-08-30	$3.94	$16,410,415,321	16 / 19
2026-08-31	$3.94	$16,416,701,666	16 / 19
2026-09-01	$3.94	$16,416,701,666	16 / 20
2026-09-02	$3.94	$16,416,701,666	17 / 20
2026-09-03	$3.94	$16,416,701,666	17 / 20
2026-09-04	$3.94	$16,416,701,666	17 / 20
2026-09-05	$3.94	$16,416,701,666	17 / 20
2026-09-06	$3.94	$16,416,701,666	17 / 20
2026-09-07	$3.94	$16,416,701,666	17 / 20
2026-09-08	$3.94	$16,416,701,666	17 / 20
2026-09-09	$3.94	$16,416,701,666	17 / 20
2026-09-10	$3.94	$16,416,701,666	17 / 20
2026-09-11	$3.94	$16,412,357,766	17 / 20
2026-09-12	$3.94	$16,412,357,766	17 / 20
2026-09-13	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-14	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-15	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-16	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-17	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-18	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-19	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-20	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-21	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-22	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-23	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-24	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-25	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-26	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 20
2026-09-27	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 21
2026-09-28	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 21
2026-09-29	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 21
2026-09-30	$3.94	$16,420,460,276	17 / 21
2026-10-01	$3.94	$16,415,608,044	17 / 21
2026-10-02	$3.94	$16,415,608,044	17 / 21
2026-10-03	$3.94	$16,415,608,044	17 / 21
2026-10-04	$3.94	$16,415,608,044	17 / 21
2026-10-05	$3.94	$16,415,608,044	17 / 21
2026-10-06	$3.95	$16,415,625,270	17 / 21
2026-10-07	$3.95	$16,415,625,270	17 / 21
2026-10-08	$3.95	$16,415,625,270	17 / 21
2026-10-09	$3.94	$16,417,227,682	17 / 21
2026-10-10	$3.94	$16,417,227,682	17 / 21
2026-10-11	$3.94	$16,417,227,682	17 / 21
2026-10-12	$3.94	$16,417,227,682	17 / 21
2026-10-13	$3.94	$16,417,227,682	17 / 21
2026-10-14	$3.94	$16,417,227,682	17 / 21
2026-10-15	$3.94	$16,417,227,682	17 / 21

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	13	1
2026-06-01	13	14	1
2026-07-01	13	14	1
2026-08-01	15	15	1
2026-09-01	15	15	1
2026-10-01	16	15	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 5 · prior Aug 20

$97.00 → $108.00+11.3%

$0$59.40$118.80

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted operating margin near 15%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Capital expenditures below $1.7 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow above $800 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Organic sales growth of at least 3% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Estée Lauder Companies (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

EL represents a turnaround investment with a focus on organic sales growth and margin expansion. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company has shown some positive momentum but faces significant headwinds.

What's priced into Estée Lauder Companies (The)

The market currently prices EL at an expensive valuation compared to its peers. This suggests that investors may have high expectations for future performance, which could be unjustified given the company's recent challenges.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has prioritized accelerating organic sales growth and expanding margins, with some progress noted in recent quarters. However, the company remains loss-making, and there is a medium confidence level in its ability to sustain this trajectory amid elevated risks.

What Estée Lauder Companies (The) hinges on

The future performance of EL hinges on its ability to maintain operational improvements and navigate potential economic downturns. Key factors include the impact of inflation on consumer spending and the company's credibility if it cuts guidance after recent positive signals.