NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC (EDU)

NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$58.38-0.51%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.10 → 5.10 EPS · FY ending May 31, 2028 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	1.44B
EPS	—	0.45
Annual ending 2027-05-31
Revenue	—	6.63B
EPS	—	4.405
Annual ending 2028-05-31
Revenue	—	7.45B
EPS	—	5.105

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stable demand for private education in China	The company is profitable and benefits from lasting demand for private education in China.	Intact	Significant decline in enrollment or regulatory restrictions reduce demand	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustained positive EPS near $4.30	A primary condition in NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $4.30.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.30 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $0.39 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $4.30. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.39 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending May 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 10% annually	A primary condition in NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY27	Revenue growth: 23.2% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202623.196574 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending May 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$5.10

$4.80 → $5.10 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$7.45B

$6.90B → $7.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.80	$6,904,313,377	9 / 21
2026-07-25	$4.80	$6,904,313,377	9 / 21
2026-07-26	$4.80	$6,904,313,377	9 / 21
2026-07-27	$4.80	$6,904,313,377	9 / 21
2026-07-28	$4.80	$6,904,313,377	9 / 21
2026-07-29	$4.80	$6,904,313,377	9 / 21
2026-07-30	$4.89	$7,087,281,310	9 / 22
2026-07-31	$4.99	$7,214,685,856	9 / 15
2026-08-01	$4.99	$7,214,685,856	9 / 15
2026-08-02	$5.06	$7,323,688,870	14 / 23
2026-08-03	$5.06	$7,323,688,870	14 / 23
2026-08-04	$5.06	$7,323,688,870	14 / 23
2026-08-05	$5.06	$7,323,688,870	14 / 23
2026-08-06	$5.18	$7,388,022,801	9 / 16
2026-08-07	$5.12	$7,417,768,208	9 / 16
2026-08-08	$5.08	$7,385,297,560	14 / 23
2026-08-09	$5.08	$7,385,297,560	14 / 23
2026-08-10	$5.08	$7,385,297,560	14 / 23
2026-08-11	$5.12	$7,417,768,208	9 / 16
2026-08-12	$5.12	$7,417,768,208	9 / 16
2026-08-13	$5.04	$7,400,341,040	14 / 23
2026-08-14	$5.12	$7,417,768,208	9 / 16
2026-08-15	$5.12	$7,417,768,208	9 / 16
2026-08-16	$5.12	$7,417,768,208	9 / 16
2026-08-17	$5.12	$7,417,768,208	9 / 16
2026-08-18	$5.12	$7,417,768,208	9 / 16
2026-08-19	$5.12	$7,417,768,208	9 / 16
2026-08-20	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-08-21	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-08-22	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-08-23	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-08-24	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-08-25	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-08-26	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-08-27	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-08-28	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-08-29	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-08-30	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-08-31	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-09-01	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-09-02	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-09-03	$5.10	$7,429,654,762	9 / 16
2026-09-04	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-05	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-06	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-07	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-08	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-09	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-10	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-11	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-12	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-13	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-14	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-15	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-16	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-17	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-18	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-19	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-20	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-21	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-22	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-23	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-24	$5.10	$7,449,490,717	9 / 16
2026-09-25	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-09-26	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-09-27	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-09-28	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-09-29	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-09-30	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-01	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-02	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-03	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-04	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-05	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-06	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-07	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-08	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-09	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-10	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-11	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-12	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-13	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-14	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-15	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-16	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-17	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-18	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-19	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-20	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-21	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-22	$5.10	$7,454,417,308	9 / 16
2026-10-23	$5.10	$7,452,964,381	9 / 16
2026-10-24	$5.10	$7,452,964,381	9 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	4	1
2026-06-01	17	4	1
2026-07-01	17	4	1
2026-08-01	17	4	1
2026-09-01	16	4	0
2026-10-01	16	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Stable demand for private education in ChinaDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustained positive EPS near $4.30Diluted EPS: $0.39 per share
Revenue growth of at least 10% annuallyRevenue growth: 23.2%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

The evidence does not support a clear label such as a durable compounder or a turnaround. The thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial-performance history, and overall confidence is low.

What's priced into NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC

The valuation model has high confidence, but the snapshot gives no valuation level or peer comparison, so expectations already reflected in the market are unclear. Fragility is assessed as low, with no fragility gates triggered.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term earnings risk is rated quiet, with a 24% miss probability, but the company has a run of consecutive earnings misses and a deep miss in its recent history. The evidence does not provide enough detail on management execution or recent results to establish a multi-year fundamental direction.

What NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC hinges on

Near term, weakening job growth could increase recession concerns for cyclical businesses, while continued strength from the named sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support; the snapshot does not explain how directly these signals relate to EDU’s business.