Ecolab (ECL)

NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$288.89-0.66%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ecolab’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.40 → 9.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective use of capital including share buybacks	Share buybacks and internal promotions support execution.	Intact	significant reduction or suspension of share buybacks in 2026	Buyback activity confirmed vs maintain target Ecolab announced share buybacks in May 2026 and raised 2026 EPS outlook to $8.05-$8.25 in July. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve adjusted diluted EPS of about $8.53 in 2026	A primary condition in Ecolab's published investment case. The stated target is 8.43 to 8.63 USD per share.	Broken	adjusted diluted EPS falls below $8.43 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Meet quarterly EPS targets near $2.07	Quarterly EPS targets near $2.07 are achievable.	Intact	quarterly EPS falls below $2.02 in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 10% annually	A supporting condition in Ecolab's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.7% YoY.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next 12 months	Revenue growth: 9.69% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20269.693928 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 199f4645-a51c-44b7-a964-a9831cd4dfa5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.38

$9.36 → $9.38 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$19.27B

$19.16B → $19.27B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.36	$19,159,262,002	13 / 14
2026-07-25	$9.36	$19,271,520,810	21 / 17
2026-07-26	$9.36	$19,271,520,810	21 / 17
2026-07-27	$9.36	$19,159,262,002	13 / 14
2026-07-28	$9.36	$19,271,520,810	21 / 17
2026-07-29	$9.40	$19,208,844,959	14 / 15
2026-07-30	$9.40	$19,259,871,280	14 / 15
2026-07-31	$9.43	$19,328,544,690	22 / 19
2026-08-01	$9.40	$19,272,288,446	14 / 15
2026-08-02	$9.44	$19,359,891,610	22 / 18
2026-08-03	$9.40	$19,268,138,971	14 / 15
2026-08-04	$9.44	$19,359,891,610	22 / 18
2026-08-05	$9.40	$19,268,138,971	14 / 15
2026-08-06	$9.44	$19,369,474,950	22 / 18
2026-08-07	$9.39	$19,275,981,836	14 / 15
2026-08-08	$9.42	$19,369,474,950	22 / 18
2026-08-09	$9.42	$19,369,474,950	22 / 18
2026-08-10	$9.42	$19,369,474,950	22 / 18
2026-08-11	$9.39	$19,275,981,836	14 / 15
2026-08-12	$9.39	$19,275,981,836	14 / 15
2026-08-13	$9.39	$19,275,981,836	14 / 15
2026-08-14	$9.39	$19,275,981,836	14 / 15
2026-08-15	$9.39	$19,275,981,836	14 / 15
2026-08-16	$9.39	$19,275,981,836	14 / 15
2026-08-17	$9.39	$19,275,981,836	14 / 15
2026-08-18	$9.39	$19,275,981,836	14 / 15
2026-08-19	$9.39	$19,275,981,836	14 / 15
2026-08-20	$9.40	$19,258,078,278	14 / 16
2026-08-21	$9.40	$19,258,078,278	14 / 16
2026-08-22	$9.40	$19,258,078,278	14 / 16
2026-08-23	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-08-24	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-08-25	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-08-26	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-08-27	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-08-28	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-08-29	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-08-30	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-08-31	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-01	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-02	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-03	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-04	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-05	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-06	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-07	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-08	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-09	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-10	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-11	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-12	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-13	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-14	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-15	$9.40	$19,261,581,836	13 / 15
2026-09-16	$9.40	$19,258,559,109	13 / 15
2026-09-17	$9.39	$19,252,521,877	13 / 15
2026-09-18	$9.39	$19,252,521,877	13 / 15
2026-09-19	$9.39	$19,252,521,877	13 / 15
2026-09-20	$9.39	$19,252,522,745	13 / 15
2026-09-21	$9.39	$19,270,976,209	13 / 15
2026-09-22	$9.39	$19,270,976,209	13 / 15
2026-09-23	$9.39	$19,270,976,209	13 / 15
2026-09-24	$9.39	$19,270,976,209	13 / 15
2026-09-25	$9.39	$19,270,976,209	13 / 15
2026-09-26	$9.39	$19,270,976,209	13 / 15
2026-09-27	$9.39	$19,270,976,209	13 / 15
2026-09-28	$9.39	$19,270,976,209	13 / 15
2026-09-29	$9.38	$19,266,816,051	13 / 15
2026-09-30	$9.38	$19,266,816,051	13 / 15
2026-10-01	$9.38	$19,266,816,051	13 / 15
2026-10-02	$9.38	$19,266,816,051	13 / 15
2026-10-03	$9.38	$19,266,816,051	13 / 15
2026-10-04	$9.38	$19,266,816,051	13 / 15
2026-10-05	$9.38	$19,266,816,051	13 / 15
2026-10-06	$9.38	$19,266,816,051	13 / 15
2026-10-07	$9.39	$19,267,954,081	13 / 15
2026-10-08	$9.38	$19,269,711,146	13 / 15
2026-10-09	$9.38	$19,269,711,146	13 / 15
2026-10-10	$9.38	$19,269,711,146	13 / 15
2026-10-11	$9.38	$19,269,711,146	13 / 15
2026-10-12	$9.38	$19,269,711,146	13 / 15
2026-10-13	$9.38	$19,269,711,146	13 / 15
2026-10-14	$9.38	$19,269,711,146	13 / 15
2026-10-15	$9.38	$19,269,711,146	13 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	20	8
2026-06-01	20	8
2026-07-01	20	8
2026-08-01	20	6
2026-09-01	20	4
2026-10-01	20	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 5 · prior Jul 29

$342.00 → $344.00+0.6%

$0$189.20$378.40

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted diluted EPS of about $8.53 in 2026Published status: Broken
Meet quarterly EPS targets near $2.07Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth near 10% annuallyRevenue growth: 9.69%

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ecolab outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ECL represents a durable compounder with a focus on organic sales growth and earnings per share expansion. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong despite challenges in the broader materials sector.

What's priced into Ecolab

The stock is currently considered expensive compared to its peers, reflecting a durable premium. The market seems to expect continued strong performance, with an expectations gap indicating that some positive outcomes are already factored in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued strength, as management is on track with its priorities, including driving organic sales growth and advancing growth strategies. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings misses, as the company has struggled with this in the past.

What Ecolab hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate, which could benefit ECL, and the performance of sector bellwethers that may influence overall materials sector momentum. Additionally, any reversal in guidance could significantly impact credibility and stock performance.