Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$94.91-2.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Everus Construction Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.2B
EPS	—	1.209
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$4.5B–$4.7B	4.66B
EPS	—	5.3
EBITDA	$410M–$425M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.21B
EPS	—	5.981

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex near $95 million in 2026	A supporting condition in Everus Construction Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Capex between $90M and $100M in FY26.	Intact	Capex exceeds $110M or falls below $80M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $20.13M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex between $90M and $100M in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202620,130,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income growth to at least $58.32M quarterly	Net income rose from $36.67M to $58.32M, showing strong profit growth.	Intact	Net income falls below $45M in any quarter of FY26	Net income: $83.89M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $58.32M in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 202683,890,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4bc74d4b-4791-4da2-b5e5-aaecde92a283. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth to at least $77.68M quarterly	Operating income improved from $50.98M to $77.68M in one year.	Intact	Operating income falls below $60M in any quarter of FY26	Operating income: $111.771M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $77.68M in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026111,771,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4bc74d4b-4791-4da2-b5e5-aaecde92a283. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue growth near 14%	A primary condition in Everus Construction Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=14% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26	Revenue growth: 33.65% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202633.650835 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4bc74d4b-4791-4da2-b5e5-aaecde92a283. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-07-28	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-30	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-06	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$5.58	$5,088,442,330	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$5.58	$5,088,442,330	5 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-11	$5.83	$5,138,252,830	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$5.83	$5,138,252,830	5 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$5,205,602,833	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$5,205,602,833	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$5,205,602,833	4 / 5
2026-08-26	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	4
2026-06-01	4	3
2026-07-01	3	3
2026-08-01	5	3
2026-09-01	5	2
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex near $95 million in 2026Capital expenditures: $20.13M
Net income growth to at least $58.32M quarterlyNet income: $83.89M
Operating income growth to at least $77.68M quarterlyOperating income: $111.771M
Annual revenue growth near 14%Revenue growth: 33.65%

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Everus Construction Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ECG is a growth and execution story, with revenue gains coming from organic growth and acquisitions. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the evidence is mixed: recent financial performance is strong while risk is high and company quality has weakened.

What's priced into Everus Construction Group, Inc.

The evidence describes ECG as cheap versus peers, while also reporting a 49% premium to peers, so the valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in assessment says current expectations are justified and fragility is low, but confidence in the valuation model is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and margin improvement have been strong, and management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance. Acquisitions have added to growth while leverage improved, but the sector backdrop is a headwind and recent earnings surprises are trending down. A guidance reversal would also hurt management credibility.

What Everus Construction Group, Inc. hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on continued organic growth, successful integration of acquisitions, and further margin improvement. It also hinges on ECG sustaining its raised guidance and on sector bellwethers PWR, FIX, and EME maintaining strong results and guidance.

Bottom line

For a 1 to 3 year view, ECG has strong operating momentum and a justified, mixed valuation picture, but high risk and a weaker quality score make execution important. The thesis remains intact, with guidance credibility and sector conditions as key swing factors. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.2B
EPS	—	1.209
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$4.5B–$4.7B	4.66B
EPS	—	5.3
EBITDA	$410M–$425M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.21B
EPS	—	5.981

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-07-28	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-30	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-06	$5.12	$4,841,190,800	6 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$5.58	$5,088,442,330	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$5.58	$5,088,442,330	5 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-11	$5.83	$5,138,252,830	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$5.83	$5,138,252,830	5 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$5,205,602,833	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$5,205,602,833	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$5,205,602,833	4 / 5
2026-08-26	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$5.98	$5,205,602,833	5 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings