eBay Inc. (EBAY)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$120.28-2.14%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge eBay Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.73 → 6.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 20 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin near $21.5B in Q2 2026	Gross margin is guided near $21.5B next quarter.	Under Pressure	Gross margin falls below $21.3B in 2026-Q2	Gross margin: 73.45% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$21.5B. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 6, 202673.452457 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c7ee6371-e52f-47ea-9b47-ffc044162aa2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. GAAP operating margin improved from 17.7% in 2025-Q2 to 21.6% in 2026-Q2, while Non-GAAP operating margin remained stable near 28-29%. Management's focus on disciplined execution aligns with the improving margin trajectory, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Management delivers sustainable growth and shareholder value	A supporting condition in eBay Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain strategy execution on growth and value.	Intact	Management abandons growth strategy or shareholder value focus	Qualitative: Strategy execution advancing (Morgan Stanley Top Pick, earnings beat) Morgan Stanley names eBay top pick; recent earnings beat; no abandonment of growth strategy. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue increased from $2.585B in 2025-Q1 to $3.134B in 2026-Q2, and GMV grew from $18.8B to $22.4B over the same period. Management consistently emphasizes growth and innovation, and the financials show delivering momentum aligned with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue grows to about $3.1B in Q1 2026	A primary condition in eBay Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.09B.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $3.09B in 2026-Q1	Revenue: $3.134B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.09B. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20263,134,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c7ee6371-e52f-47ea-9b47-ffc044162aa2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue increased from $2.585B in 2025-Q1 to $3.134B in 2026-Q2, and GMV grew from $18.8B to $22.4B over the same period. Management consistently emphasizes growth and innovation, and the financials show delivering momentum aligned with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.73

$6.75 → $6.73 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.41B

$12.82B → $13.41B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.75	$12,818,458,578	12 / 14
2026-07-25	$6.74	$12,767,038,830	18 / 18
2026-07-26	$6.74	$12,767,038,830	18 / 18
2026-07-27	$6.75	$12,818,458,578	12 / 14
2026-07-28	$6.75	$12,818,458,578	12 / 14
2026-07-29	$6.75	$12,818,458,578	12 / 14
2026-07-30	$6.75	$12,818,458,578	12 / 14
2026-07-31	$6.75	$12,818,469,292	13 / 15
2026-08-01	$6.75	$12,818,469,292	13 / 15
2026-08-02	$6.72	$12,905,006,240	15 / 13
2026-08-03	$6.75	$12,816,683,578	12 / 13
2026-08-04	$6.72	$12,905,006,240	15 / 13
2026-08-05	$6.69	$12,958,862,940	16 / 14
2026-08-06	$6.75	$12,816,683,578	12 / 13
2026-08-07	$6.71	$13,092,861,981	11 / 12
2026-08-08	$6.71	$13,215,155,190	23 / 21
2026-08-09	$6.71	$13,215,155,190	23 / 21
2026-08-10	$6.71	$13,215,155,190	23 / 21
2026-08-11	$6.71	$13,243,925,410	24 / 22
2026-08-12	$6.71	$13,092,861,981	11 / 12
2026-08-13	$6.71	$13,278,562,340	25 / 23
2026-08-14	$6.71	$13,092,861,981	11 / 12
2026-08-15	$6.71	$13,092,861,981	14 / 15
2026-08-16	$6.71	$13,092,861,981	15 / 15
2026-08-17	$6.71	$13,092,861,981	15 / 15
2026-08-18	$6.71	$13,092,861,981	15 / 15
2026-08-19	$6.71	$13,092,861,981	15 / 15
2026-08-20	$6.74	$13,360,025,118	18 / 19
2026-08-21	$6.75	$13,390,242,707	20 / 21
2026-08-22	$6.75	$13,390,242,707	20 / 21
2026-08-23	$6.75	$13,390,242,707	20 / 21
2026-08-24	$6.75	$13,390,242,707	20 / 21
2026-08-25	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-08-26	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-08-27	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-08-28	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-08-29	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-08-30	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-08-31	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-09-01	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-09-02	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-09-03	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-09-04	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-09-05	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-09-06	$6.75	$13,390,242,940	20 / 21
2026-09-07	$6.75	$13,390,231,595	20 / 21
2026-09-08	$6.75	$13,390,231,595	20 / 21
2026-09-09	$6.75	$13,390,231,595	20 / 21
2026-09-10	$6.75	$13,390,231,595	20 / 21
2026-09-11	$6.75	$13,390,233,662	20 / 21
2026-09-12	$6.75	$13,390,233,662	20 / 21
2026-09-13	$6.75	$13,390,233,662	20 / 21
2026-09-14	$6.75	$13,390,233,662	20 / 21
2026-09-15	$6.73	$13,393,492,921	20 / 21
2026-09-16	$6.73	$13,393,492,921	20 / 21
2026-09-17	$6.73	$13,393,492,921	20 / 21
2026-09-18	$6.73	$13,393,492,921	20 / 21
2026-09-19	$6.73	$13,393,492,921	20 / 21
2026-09-20	$6.73	$13,393,492,921	20 / 21
2026-09-21	$6.73	$13,393,492,921	20 / 21
2026-09-22	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-09-23	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-09-24	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-09-25	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-09-26	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-09-27	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-09-28	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-09-29	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-09-30	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-01	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-02	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-03	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-04	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-05	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-06	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-07	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-08	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-09	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-10	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-11	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-12	$6.73	$13,391,807,736	20 / 21
2026-10-13	$6.73	$13,403,574,229	20 / 21
2026-10-14	$6.73	$13,406,197,675	20 / 21
2026-10-15	$6.73	$13,406,197,675	20 / 21

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	22	3
2026-06-01	10	20	2
2026-07-01	11	19	2
2026-08-01	13	18	4
2026-09-01	12	17	4
2026-10-01	12	17	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 17 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Aug 3

$92.00 → $91.00-1.1%

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior Aug 6

$127.00 → $132.00+3.9%

$0$72.60$145.20

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin near $21.5B in Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows to about $3.1B in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

eBay Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

EBAY represents a durable compounder with a focus on sustainable growth and shareholder value. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial results despite a challenging sector backdrop.

What's priced into eBay Inc.

The market currently prices EBAY at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, indicating high expectations for future performance. This premium suggests that investors are anticipating continued strong execution and growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown a commitment to enhancing gross margins and operational efficiency, which is reflected in recent financial improvements. While the near-term risk of missing guidance is low, there is a history of execution challenges that could affect future performance.

What eBay Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on maintaining credibility with guidance, as any reversal could significantly impact investor confidence. Additionally, sector performance from major players like Amazon and Alibaba will be crucial in shaping EBAY's trajectory.