Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. (DYN)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.62-0.95%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dyne Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.905
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	995,727
EPS	—	-3.626
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	52.8M
EPS	—	-3.348

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain cash to fund operations into Q1 2028	It has about $1.1 billion to fund operations into early 2028.	Intact	Cash falls below $1 billion before Q1 2028	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters. Cash and equivalents declined from $972.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $898.5 million in 2026-Q2, supplemented by approximately $405 million net proceeds from a July 2026 public offering. Management expects these resources to fund operations into Q2 2028. The trajectory shows the company maintaining sufficient liquidity consistent with stated plans. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Launch z-basivarsen by Q1 2028	The company also aims to launch z-basivarsen in Q1 2028.	Improving	Launch delayed beyond Q1 2028	Clinical data advancing vs Q1 2028 target Sep 2026 press release announced additional one-year clinical data from the ACHIEVE trial for z-basivarsen in DM1. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2 recent quarterly reports and a June 2026 update. Management plans topline data from the ACHIEVE registrational expansion cohort in Q1 2027 to support a BLA submission and expects a potential U.S. launch in the first half of 2028. The trajectory shows consistent progress with clinical enrollment completed and trials underway. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Launch z-rostudirsen in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy by Q1 2027	Dyne plans to launch z-rostudirsen for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy in Q1 2027.	Intact	Launch delayed beyond Q1 2027	PDUFA date Jan 21, 2027 vs Q1 2027 target FDA accepted z-rostudirsen BLA for DMD with Priority Review, setting a PDUFA target action date of January 21, 2027. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management confirmed FDA acceptance of the BLA with Priority Review and a PDUFA date of January 21, 2027, targeting a U.S. launch in Q1 2027. The trajectory is delivering as the company remains on track for regulatory milestones and launch timing. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-3.35

$-2.94 → $-3.35 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.05B

$0.05B → $0.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-2.94	$50,922,590	12 / 13
2026-07-25	$-2.93	$51,806,690	13 / 14
2026-07-26	$-2.90	$51,752,812	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$-2.93	$51,806,690	13 / 14
2026-07-28	$-2.93	$51,806,690	13 / 14
2026-07-29	$-2.90	$51,752,812	12 / 11
2026-07-30	$-2.93	$51,806,690	13 / 14
2026-07-31	$-3.23	$52,565,370	12 / 9
2026-08-01	$-3.23	$52,565,370	12 / 9
2026-08-02	$-3.23	$55,884,120	13 / 13
2026-08-03	$-3.23	$55,884,120	13 / 13
2026-08-04	$-3.26	$51,017,878	12 / 11
2026-08-05	$-3.26	$51,017,878	12 / 11
2026-08-06	$-3.23	$51,056,440	13 / 15
2026-08-07	$-3.26	$51,017,878	12 / 11
2026-08-08	$-3.23	$51,043,110	13 / 15
2026-08-09	$-3.23	$51,043,110	13 / 15
2026-08-10	$-3.23	$51,043,110	13 / 15
2026-08-11	$-3.26	$51,017,878	12 / 11
2026-08-12	$-3.26	$51,017,878	12 / 11
2026-08-13	$-3.26	$51,296,190	13 / 14
2026-08-14	$-3.26	$51,017,878	12 / 11
2026-08-15	$-3.26	$51,017,878	12 / 12
2026-08-16	$-3.26	$51,017,878	12 / 12
2026-08-17	$-3.26	$51,017,878	12 / 12
2026-08-18	$-3.26	$51,017,878	12 / 12
2026-08-19	$-3.26	$51,017,878	12 / 12
2026-08-20	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-08-21	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-08-22	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-08-23	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-08-24	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-08-25	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-08-26	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-08-27	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-08-28	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-08-29	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-08-30	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-08-31	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-09-01	$-3.35	$52,438,612	12 / 12
2026-09-02	$-3.42	$53,345,244	12 / 12
2026-09-03	$-3.42	$53,345,244	12 / 12
2026-09-04	$-3.42	$53,345,244	12 / 12
2026-09-05	$-3.42	$53,345,244	12 / 12
2026-09-06	$-3.42	$53,345,244	12 / 12
2026-09-07	$-3.42	$53,345,244	12 / 12
2026-09-08	$-3.42	$53,345,244	12 / 12
2026-09-09	$-3.38	$53,734,081	12 / 12
2026-09-10	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-11	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-12	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-13	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-14	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-15	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-16	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-17	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-18	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-19	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-20	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-21	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-22	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-23	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-24	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-25	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-26	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-27	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-28	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-29	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-09-30	$-3.35	$52,801,331	12 / 12
2026-10-01	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-02	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-03	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-04	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-05	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-06	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-07	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-08	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-09	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-10	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-11	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-12	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-13	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-14	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-15	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-16	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-17	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-18	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-19	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-20	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-21	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-22	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-23	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12
2026-10-24	$-3.35	$52,801,824	12 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	2	0
2026-06-01	15	2	0
2026-07-01	16	2	0
2026-08-01	16	1	0
2026-09-01	16	1	1
2026-10-01	16	0	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausSep 30

$37.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesSep 30

$50.00New observation · no comparable prior

H.C. WainwrightSep 30 · prior Aug 17

$50.00 → $32.00-36.0%

Piper SandlerSep 29

$47.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$27.50$55.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain cash to fund operations into Q1 2028Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative, high-risk biotech thesis, not a proven compounder. The current thesis is on watch: recent performance is weak relative to industry peers, and management execution is marked as volatile, though key development and launch plans remain in progress.

What's priced into Dyne Therapeutics, Inc.

The evidence does not provide a valuation comparison or specific market expectations, so how much optimism or pessimism is reflected is unclear. DYN is loss-making, and the available evidence does not support a firm conclusion about whether its valuation is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results and execution remain uncertain after a July earnings miss, with a reported 50% miss probability and recent peer misses adding to the risk. Over the multi-year view, the main potential fundamental change is progress toward launching z-rostudirsen in Q1 2027 and z-basivarsen in 2028; management says its cash and offering proceeds are expected to fund operations into Q2 2028.

What Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on meeting regulatory and launch milestones, including the January 2027 FDA decision date for z-rostudirsen, and on obtaining supportive z-basivarsen trial data. A guidance cut or further weakening in employment could add pressure, while strong results and guidance from major healthcare companies could support the sector backdrop. The recent litigation filing is an additional uncertainty, but the evidence gives no detail on its likely effect.