Devon Energy (DVN)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$50.73+3.03%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Devon Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.03 → 5.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies	The company targets $1 billion in yearly cost savings.	Intact	Synergies fall short of $1 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Finalize merger with Coterra Energy	The merger with Coterra boosts output and scale.	Improving	Merger fails or integration delays beyond FY26	Merger completed; integration on track vs mid-2026 target Coterra merger completed; Eagle Ford assets sold for $4.2B; operations refocused on integration. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful debt exchange and capital optimization	Debt exchange improves its capital structure.	Intact	Debt exchange fails or worsens capital structure	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Production near 845,000 Boe per day	Devon Energy aims to keep production near 845,000 Boe per day.	Intact	Production falls below 835,000 Boe per day in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Production consistently met or exceeded guidance, with Q2 2026 averaging 1,359,000 Boe per day post-merger. Full-year 2026 production guidance targets approximately 835,000 to 855,000 Boe per day. The trajectory shows delivery and growth aligned with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.06

$5.29 → $5.06 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$24.84B

$26.35B → $24.84B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.29	$26,354,131,158	11 / 7
2026-07-25	$5.00	$27,240,556,270	13 / 7
2026-07-26	$5.00	$27,240,556,270	13 / 7
2026-07-27	$5.00	$27,240,556,270	13 / 7
2026-07-28	$5.00	$27,240,556,270	13 / 7
2026-07-29	$5.05	$27,240,556,270	12 / 7
2026-07-30	$5.27	$26,273,061,803	11 / 6
2026-07-31	$5.05	$26,622,111,730	12 / 8
2026-08-01	$5.27	$26,273,061,803	11 / 6
2026-08-02	$5.05	$25,889,841,980	12 / 7
2026-08-03	$5.05	$25,889,841,980	12 / 7
2026-08-04	$5.27	$26,273,061,803	11 / 7
2026-08-05	$5.05	$25,889,841,980	12 / 7
2026-08-06	$5.27	$26,273,061,803	11 / 7
2026-08-07	$5.35	$26,387,801,014	11 / 6
2026-08-08	$5.16	$26,507,401,920	12 / 6
2026-08-09	$5.16	$26,507,401,920	12 / 6
2026-08-10	$5.16	$26,507,401,920	12 / 6
2026-08-11	$5.35	$26,387,801,014	11 / 6
2026-08-12	$4.88	$25,658,880,260	14 / 7
2026-08-13	$5.35	$26,387,801,014	11 / 6
2026-08-14	$5.35	$26,387,801,014	11 / 6
2026-08-15	$5.35	$26,387,801,014	12 / 6
2026-08-16	$5.35	$26,387,801,014	12 / 6
2026-08-17	$5.35	$26,387,801,014	12 / 6
2026-08-18	$5.35	$26,387,801,014	12 / 6
2026-08-19	$5.35	$26,387,801,014	12 / 6
2026-08-20	$5.00	$25,116,739,235	12 / 7
2026-08-21	$5.03	$25,212,132,374	12 / 7
2026-08-22	$5.05	$25,220,342,901	12 / 7
2026-08-23	$5.05	$25,220,342,901	12 / 7
2026-08-24	$5.05	$25,220,342,901	12 / 7
2026-08-25	$5.07	$25,337,869,217	11 / 7
2026-08-26	$5.07	$25,337,869,217	11 / 7
2026-08-27	$5.07	$25,337,869,217	11 / 7
2026-08-28	$5.07	$25,337,869,217	11 / 7
2026-08-29	$5.05	$25,557,014,020	11 / 7
2026-08-30	$5.05	$25,557,014,020	11 / 7
2026-08-31	$5.05	$25,557,014,020	11 / 7
2026-09-01	$5.03	$25,281,770,650	11 / 7
2026-09-02	$5.01	$25,281,770,650	11 / 7
2026-09-03	$5.00	$25,252,470,650	11 / 7
2026-09-04	$5.01	$25,017,127,117	11 / 7
2026-09-05	$5.01	$25,017,127,117	12 / 7
2026-09-06	$5.01	$25,017,127,117	12 / 7
2026-09-07	$5.01	$25,017,127,117	12 / 7
2026-09-08	$5.01	$25,017,127,117	12 / 7
2026-09-09	$4.95	$25,017,127,117	12 / 7
2026-09-10	$4.95	$25,017,127,117	12 / 7
2026-09-11	$4.95	$25,017,127,117	12 / 7
2026-09-12	$4.95	$25,017,127,117	12 / 7
2026-09-13	$4.95	$25,017,127,117	12 / 7
2026-09-14	$4.95	$25,017,127,117	12 / 7
2026-09-15	$5.03	$25,150,973,467	12 / 7
2026-09-16	$5.01	$25,156,978,908	12 / 7
2026-09-17	$5.01	$25,156,978,908	12 / 7
2026-09-18	$5.01	$24,997,240,956	12 / 7
2026-09-19	$5.01	$24,997,240,956	12 / 7
2026-09-20	$5.01	$24,997,240,956	12 / 7
2026-09-21	$5.01	$24,997,240,956	12 / 7
2026-09-22	$5.01	$24,997,240,956	11 / 6
2026-09-23	$5.01	$24,997,240,956	11 / 6
2026-09-24	$5.01	$24,997,240,956	11 / 6
2026-09-25	$5.03	$24,997,240,956	11 / 6
2026-09-26	$5.03	$24,991,714,640	11 / 6
2026-09-27	$5.03	$24,991,714,640	11 / 6
2026-09-28	$5.03	$24,991,714,640	11 / 6
2026-09-29	$5.03	$24,991,714,640	11 / 6
2026-09-30	$5.03	$24,991,714,640	11 / 6
2026-10-01	$5.03	$24,991,714,640	11 / 6
2026-10-02	$5.03	$25,052,554,693	11 / 6
2026-10-03	$5.07	$25,132,945,582	11 / 6
2026-10-04	$5.09	$25,132,945,582	11 / 6
2026-10-05	$5.09	$25,132,945,582	12 / 7
2026-10-06	$5.09	$25,132,945,582	12 / 7
2026-10-07	$5.14	$25,611,866,958	12 / 7
2026-10-08	$5.16	$25,654,821,094	12 / 7
2026-10-09	$5.07	$25,158,332,731	12 / 7
2026-10-10	$5.12	$25,070,420,343	10 / 7
2026-10-11	$5.12	$25,070,420,343	10 / 7
2026-10-12	$5.12	$25,070,420,343	10 / 7
2026-10-13	$5.11	$25,005,946,659	10 / 7
2026-10-14	$5.09	$25,005,946,659	10 / 7
2026-10-15	$5.06	$24,839,946,659	10 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	22	5
2026-06-01	25	4
2026-07-01	25	2
2026-08-01	25	3
2026-09-01	26	3
2026-10-01	28	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 28 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Jun 29

$63.00 → $65.00+3.2%

ScotiabankOct 14

$61.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Aug 17

$58.00 → $60.00+3.4%

UBSOct 7 · prior Sep 14

$63.00 → $65.00+3.2%

BMO CapitalOct 6

$67.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$36.85$73.70

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergiesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Successful debt exchange and capital optimizationDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Production near 845,000 Boe per dayDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Devon Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a mix of a turnaround and a durable compounder. The current thesis state is cautious, focusing on management's ability to execute on integration and production goals while navigating a volatile sector backdrop.

What's priced into Devon Energy

The market currently prices DVN as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market is not fully accounting for potential positive developments in the sector.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with synergy capture from the Coterra merger, but production growth is mixed and capital management is behind schedule. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing earnings expectations.

What Devon Energy hinges on

The thesis hinges on inflation trends, guidance from management, and performance of sector bellwethers like COP and EOG. A cut in guidance could negatively impact sentiment, while continued sector momentum could provide support.