DaVita (DVA)

Q: What's priced into DaVita (DVA) stock?

The market currently prices DVA as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. This suggests that investors are not fully factoring in the potential for stronger performance given the company's recent results.

Q: What does the DaVita (DVA) outlook hinge on?

Key factors include management's ability to maintain guidance in the next earnings call and the overall health of the job market. Additionally, performance from sector leaders could influence DVA's trajectory positively or negatively.

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$187.31-0.98%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge DaVita’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve free cash flow guidance of $1.0-$1.25 billion	Free cash flow improves toward $1.0-$1.25 billion in 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $320.251M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1000 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026320,251,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Free cash flow improved from negative $45 million in 2025-Q1 to $256 million in 2026-Q2. Management's 2026 guidance targets free cash flow between $1.0 billion and $1.25 billion. The trajectory shows progress with improving cash flow generation supporting the guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain operating income supported by AI and center reopenings	Profit margins remain stable with operating income supported by AI tools and center reopenings.	Intact	Operating income declines materially despite AI and center reopenings	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve ~4% annual revenue growth	A primary condition in DaVita's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.8% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 3.8% in FY26	Revenue growth: 5.17% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20265.165162 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9e1f8a0d-49ea-4bcb-9bae-cefb8599c4d3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain valuation discount with PE below peer median of 26.6	A supporting condition in DaVita's published investment case. The stated target is PE <= 20.	Intact	PE rises above 26.6 without earnings growth justification	P/E (TTM): 14.78x As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 202614.7781 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: DVA:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.96

$17.33 → $16.96 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.53B

$14.52B → $14.53B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$17.33	$14,516,567,254	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-07-27	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-07-30	$17.33	$14,516,567,254	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$17.33	$14,516,567,254	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$17.33	$14,516,567,254	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-08-03	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-08-04	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$17.33	$14,516,567,254	5 / 5
2026-08-07	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$17.03	$14,613,539,120	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$17.03	$14,613,539,120	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-11	$17.02	$14,596,376,390	8 / 7
2026-08-12	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-14	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-21	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	6	2
2026-06-01	2	4	2
2026-07-01	2	4	2
2026-08-01	3	4	2
2026-09-01	3	4	1
2026-10-01	3	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve free cash flow guidance of $1.0-$1.25 billionFree cash flow: $320.251M
Maintain operating income supported by AI and center reopeningsQualitative condition
Achieve ~4% annual revenue growthPublished status: Broken
Maintain valuation discount with PE below peer median of 26.6P/E (TTM): 14.78x

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

DaVita outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder in the healthcare sector. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance, although there are elevated risks that could impact future results.

What's priced into DaVita

The market currently prices DVA as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. This suggests that investors are not fully factoring in the potential for stronger performance given the company's recent results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet operating income guidance, with a strong increase in operating income reported. However, free cash flow generation is mixed, which could impact overall financial health in the near term.

What DaVita hinges on

Key factors include management's ability to maintain guidance in the next earnings call and the overall health of the job market. Additionally, performance from sector leaders could influence DVA's trajectory positively or negatively.

Bottom line

In the next 1 to 3 years, DVA's performance will depend on management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.96

$17.33 → $16.96 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.53B

$14.52B → $14.53B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$17.33	$14,516,567,254	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-07-27	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-07-30	$17.33	$14,516,567,254	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$17.33	$14,516,567,254	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$17.33	$14,516,567,254	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-08-03	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-08-04	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$17.22	$14,629,548,040	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$17.33	$14,516,567,254	5 / 5
2026-08-07	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$17.03	$14,613,539,120	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$17.03	$14,613,539,120	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-11	$17.02	$14,596,376,390	8 / 7
2026-08-12	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-14	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$17.01	$14,473,446,951	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$14,470,126,951	4 / 5
2026-09-21	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$17.06	$14,470,126,951	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$16.96	$14,532,105,793	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings