Darden Restaurants (DRI)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$216.35+0.95%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Darden Restaurants’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.41 → 12.40 EPS · FY ending May 31, 2028 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase adjusted diluted EPS to $10.57-$10.67 for FY 2026	A primary condition in Darden Restaurants's published investment case. The stated target is EPS in range $10.57 to $10.67.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $10.0 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 was maintained at $10.57 to $10.67. Diluted EPS increased from $2.19 in 2026-Q1 to $2.65 in 2026-Q3, indicating progress toward the full-year EPS target. The trajectory is delivering consistent EPS growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain capital expenditures between $750M and $775M for FY 2026	A supporting condition in Darden Restaurants's published investment case. The stated target is $750M to $775M capital expenditures.	Intact	Capital expenditures fall outside $700M-$800M range in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 5 quarters. Management maintained capital expenditure guidance between $750 million and $775 million for fiscal 2026. Actual capital expenditures were consistent quarter-over-quarter, with $174.1 million in 2026-Q1 and $175.3 million in 2027-Q1, indicating disciplined capex management. The trajectory is stable and aligned with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Return capital to shareholders via dividend increases and share repurchases	Management is on track with its growth and capital return goals.	Intact	No dividend increase or share repurchase authorization in next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Dividends per share increased from $1.40 in 2025-Q3 to $1.62 in 2026-Q3. The company repurchased $222.3 million of stock in 2026-Q3, maintaining an active capital return program. The trajectory shows consistent execution of shareholder return commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve approximately 9.5% revenue growth for FY 2026	A primary condition in Darden Restaurants's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.5% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below ~7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 5.11% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=9.5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 2, 20265.11052 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Aug 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 08925bdf-80ef-4495-a4ed-f942d3320563. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.0 billion in 2025-Q3 to $3.2 billion in 2026-Q3, consistent with management's guidance of approximately 9.5% total sales growth for fiscal 2026. The trajectory is delivering as total sales and same-restaurant sales have increased steadily. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$12.40

$12.41 → $12.40 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$14.54B

$14.51B → $14.54B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.41	$14,512,495,390	17 / 19
2026-07-25	$12.39	$14,522,132,300	26 / 24
2026-07-26	$12.41	$14,512,495,390	17 / 19
2026-07-27	$12.39	$14,522,132,300	26 / 24
2026-07-28	$12.39	$14,522,132,300	26 / 24
2026-07-29	$12.39	$14,522,132,300	26 / 24
2026-07-30	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-07-31	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-01	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-02	$12.39	$14,522,132,300	26 / 24
2026-08-03	$12.39	$14,522,132,300	26 / 24
2026-08-04	$12.39	$14,522,132,300	26 / 24
2026-08-05	$12.39	$14,522,132,300	26 / 24
2026-08-06	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-07	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-08	$12.39	$14,522,132,300	26 / 24
2026-08-09	$12.39	$14,522,132,300	26 / 24
2026-08-10	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-11	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-12	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-13	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-14	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-15	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-16	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-17	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-18	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-19	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-20	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-21	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-22	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-23	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-24	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-25	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-26	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-27	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-28	$12.41	$14,512,479,003	17 / 19
2026-08-29	$12.41	$14,515,687,336	17 / 19
2026-08-30	$12.41	$14,515,687,336	17 / 20
2026-08-31	$12.41	$14,515,687,336	17 / 20
2026-09-01	$12.41	$14,515,687,336	17 / 20
2026-09-02	$12.41	$14,515,687,336	17 / 20
2026-09-03	$12.41	$14,516,675,827	17 / 20
2026-09-04	$12.41	$14,516,675,827	17 / 20
2026-09-05	$12.41	$14,516,675,827	17 / 20
2026-09-06	$12.41	$14,516,675,827	17 / 20
2026-09-07	$12.41	$14,516,675,827	17 / 20
2026-09-08	$12.41	$14,516,675,827	17 / 20
2026-09-09	$11.11	$14,516,675,827	17 / 20
2026-09-10	$12.41	$14,516,675,827	17 / 20
2026-09-11	$12.41	$14,516,675,827	17 / 20
2026-09-12	$12.41	$14,519,136,310	17 / 20
2026-09-13	$12.41	$14,519,136,310	17 / 20
2026-09-14	$12.41	$14,519,136,310	17 / 20
2026-09-15	$12.41	$14,518,887,071	17 / 20
2026-09-16	$12.41	$14,524,246,421	17 / 20
2026-09-17	$12.41	$14,520,484,565	17 / 20
2026-09-18	$12.41	$14,520,484,565	17 / 20
2026-09-19	$12.41	$14,520,484,565	17 / 20
2026-09-20	$12.41	$14,520,484,565	18 / 21
2026-09-21	$12.41	$14,520,484,565	18 / 21
2026-09-22	$12.41	$14,520,000,565	18 / 21
2026-09-23	$12.41	$14,520,000,565	18 / 21
2026-09-24	$12.42	$14,520,307,547	18 / 21
2026-09-25	$12.39	$14,532,263,318	18 / 21
2026-09-26	$12.41	$14,537,392,085	17 / 20
2026-09-27	$12.41	$14,537,514,710	17 / 20
2026-09-28	$12.41	$14,537,514,710	17 / 20
2026-09-29	$12.41	$14,537,514,710	17 / 20
2026-09-30	$12.41	$14,537,514,710	17 / 20
2026-10-01	$12.41	$14,536,996,313	18 / 20
2026-10-02	$12.41	$14,536,996,313	18 / 20
2026-10-03	$12.41	$14,538,916,313	18 / 21
2026-10-04	$12.41	$14,538,916,313	18 / 21
2026-10-05	$12.41	$14,538,916,313	18 / 21
2026-10-06	$12.41	$14,538,916,313	18 / 21
2026-10-07	$12.41	$14,538,916,313	18 / 21
2026-10-08	$12.41	$14,538,930,849	18 / 21
2026-10-09	$12.40	$14,537,919,635	18 / 21
2026-10-10	$12.40	$14,537,919,635	18 / 21
2026-10-11	$12.40	$14,537,919,635	18 / 21
2026-10-12	$12.40	$14,537,919,635	18 / 21
2026-10-13	$12.40	$14,537,919,635	18 / 21
2026-10-14	$12.40	$14,539,094,849	18 / 21
2026-10-15	$12.40	$14,539,094,849	18 / 21

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	20	10	2
2026-06-01	18	11	1
2026-07-01	17	11	1
2026-08-01	17	11	2
2026-09-01	18	10	2
2026-10-01	18	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades9 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 9 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesSep 25

$245.00New observation · no comparable prior

BernsteinSep 25

$230.00New observation · no comparable prior

Seaport GlobalSep 16

$240.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$134.75$269.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase adjusted diluted EPS to $10.57-$10.67 for FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain capital expenditures between $750M and $775M for FY 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Return capital to shareholders via dividend increases and share repurchasesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve approximately 9.5% revenue growth for FY 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Darden Restaurants outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder investment. DRI is focused on achieving consistent revenue and earnings growth, while navigating a challenging consumer discretionary sector backdrop.

What's priced into Darden Restaurants

The market currently prices in a low level of fragility, with expectations for stable execution. Valuation shows a durable premium compared to peers, indicating that investors expect some resilience in performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its revenue and earnings targets for fiscal 2026, with steady growth in both total sales and adjusted diluted EPS. However, there is a moderate risk of missing these targets, given recent performance trends.

What Darden Restaurants hinges on

The thesis hinges on maintaining guidance and performance in the face of potential sector headwinds. Key factors include inflation trends and the performance of major sector players like MCD and SBUX, which could influence DRI's momentum.