NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Increase adjusted diluted EPS to $10.57-$10.67 for FY 2026: EPS $3.66 vs target $10.57-$10.67.
Darden Restaurants grows revenue about 9.5% yearly. Profit per share rose from $9.55 to $10.64 in fiscal 2026. The company returns cash to shareholders with dividends and buybacks. Management is on track with its growth and capital return goals.
Growth at Olive Garden is weakening, which may hurt profit growth. Margin concerns could pressure earnings. Analysts have cut estimates recently, signaling risks to the outlook.
The stock trades about 13% above our fair value near $180. Analysts expect 7% revenue growth, which is slightly below management's 9.5% target. Our fair value is 22% below the Street median, reflecting a more cautious view.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $10.0 in FY26
Target adjusted diluted net earnings per share from continuing operations in the range of $10.57 to $10.67 for fiscal 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's commitment to growth targets.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a modest expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic or pessimistic about future performance.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue growth target of approximately 9.5% for FY 2026. However, there is a watch on the adjusted diluted EPS target, and the mixed status of capital expenditures suggests some uncertainty in execution.
Key factors include management's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, inflation trends affecting consumer spending, and the performance of sector leaders like MCD and SBUX. These elements will significantly influence DRI's trajectory in the coming months.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Darden Restaurants had a recent earnings beat. This supports the case for revenue growth in fiscal 2026. However, the company faces a shareholder proposal for increased governance scrutiny. This could create reputational risks and oversight challenges. The proposal does not directly threaten sales or margins.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures fall outside $700M-$800M range in FY26
Keep total capital spending within the range of $750 million to $775 million for fiscal 2026.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently guided capital expenditures between $750 million and $775 million for fiscal 2026. Actual capital spending data is not detailed in the inputs, so progress is consistent with guidance but delivery cannot be fully assessed.
“Total capital spending of $750 to $775 million for fiscal 2026.”
“Total capital spending of $750 to $775 million for fiscal 2026.”
“Total capital spending of $750 to $775 million for fiscal 2026.”
“Total capital spending of $750 to $775 million for fiscal 2026.”
Breaks if: No dividend increase or share repurchase authorization in next 4 quarters
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~7% in FY26
Continue to grow total sales by about 9.5% in fiscal 2026, driven by same-restaurant sales growth and new restaurant openings.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $12.08 billion in 2025-Q4 to $13.21 billion in 2026-Q4, a 9.4% increase, driven by same-restaurant sales growth around 4.5% and new restaurant openings. Management has consistently emphasized this growth target and the trajectory is delivering.
“Total sales increased 9.4% to $13.21 billion driven by same-restaurant sales increase of 4.5% and sales from 43 net new restaurants.”
“Total sales increased 5.9% to $3.3 billion, driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.2% and sales from 31 net new restaurants.”
“Total sales increased 7.3% to $3.1 billion, driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.3% and sales from 30 net new restaurants.”
“Total sales increased 10.4% to $3.0 billion, driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.7% and sales from acquisition of 103 Chuy's restaurants and 22 net new restaurants.”
“Total sales increased 10.6% to $3.3 billion driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.6% and sales from acquisition of 103 Chuy's restaurants and 25 net new restaurants.”
Overall, DRI's fundamentals are solid, but they face moderate risks that could impact future performance. Not investment advice.
