NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflow4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share repurchases of at least $75 million and dividend of $1.99 per share in Q1 2026 | The company returns capital with $75 million in share buybacks and a 15% dividend increase to $1.99 per share. | Intact | Share repurchases fall below $75 million or dividend per share falls below $1.99 in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Management has consistently repurchased shares quarterly, totaling 848,503 shares for $304.9 million in the first three quarters of 2026. Quarterly dividends increased from $1.74 in 2025-Q4 to $1.99 in 2026-Q1. The company maintains disciplined capital allocation with ongoing share repurchases and dividend growth, delivering on stated commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
EPS growth to at least $19.17 in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Domino's's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $19.17. | Intact | EPS falls below $19.17 in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $4.60 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $19.17. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Source published Oct 13, 20264.6 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 6, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 38db4811-34f1-4e9f-8584-483d8468a90b. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Global net store growth of at least 180 stores in Q1 2026 | Domino's keeps expanding its global store count with 180 net new stores in Q1 2026. | Intact | Global net store growth falls below 180 stores in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Management consistently reports net store growth globally and in the U.S., with 175 net stores added in 2026-Q3 compared to 214 in 2025-Q3. The trailing four quarters net store growth was 956 in 2026-Q3 versus 748 in 2025-Q3, showing ongoing expansion. The trajectory is delivering consistent global store count growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
U.S. same store sales growth near 0.9% in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Domino's's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.9% YoY growth. | Broken | U.S. same store sales growth falls below 0.9% in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Management consistently emphasized increasing U.S. market share as a key growth driver. U.S. same store sales growth declined from 5.2% in 2025-Q3 to 0.3% in 2026-Q3, and global retail sales growth in U.S. stores declined from 7.0% to 2.1% over the same period. Despite this slowdown, management continues to focus on market share gains, indicating persistent emphasis but mixed delivery on growth momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsLatest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 13 recorded
0 raises · 7 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on increasing market share and expanding its global footprint. The current thesis state is intact, despite recent challenges and a volatile management situation.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not overly pessimistic expectations. DPZ is currently valued at a premium compared to its peers, indicating some confidence in its long-term growth potential.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management focused on increasing U.S. market share and expanding store count. However, there is a near-term risk of earnings misses, as the company has faced challenges in recent quarters.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate sector headwinds. Key factors include inflation trends and performance from sector peers, which could influence consumer discretionary spending.
Overall, DPZ's long-term outlook remains supported by its strategic priorities, but it faces risks that could impact short-term performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.