NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — U.S. same store sales growth near 0.9% in Q1 2026: U.S. SSS +0.9% vs 0.9% target (Q1 FY26).
Domino's keeps expanding its global store count with 180 net new stores in Q1 2026. The company returns capital with $75 million in share buybacks and a 15% dividend increase to $1.99 per share. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth next year. Profit margins remain stable with a reasonable valuation.
Sales growth is slowing with U.S. same store sales down to 0.9% in Q1 2026 from 3.7% in Q4 2025. Global store openings have sharply declined from 776 in fiscal 2025 to 180 in Q1 2026. Recent earnings have missed estimates and management changes add uncertainty.
The price is about 38% below our fair value near $502, reflecting cautious sentiment. The market expects roughly 5.5% revenue growth, which aligns with consensus but is below Domino's historical pace. Our fair value is 26% above the Street median, suggesting some upside if execution improves.
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $75 million or dividend per share falls below $1.99 in Q1 2026
Continue disciplined capital allocation with ongoing share repurchase programs and dividend increases.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on increasing market share and expanding globally. The current thesis is stable, but there are signs of volatility in management and recent performance.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral outlook for DPZ, with a slight expectations gap indicating that investors are not overly optimistic. The valuation is aligned with peers, but DPZ trades at a premium, reflecting some confidence in its business model.
Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, with management focused on market share growth and disciplined capital allocation. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, which could impact investor sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on growth priorities and navigate potential challenges, such as inflation and competition. Additionally, performance of sector peers could influence DPZ's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Investor sentiment has been pressured by heightened competition in quick-service restaurants. The company reported weaker same-store sales, with U.S. same-store sales increasing only 0.1% in Q2 2026. Additionally, rising food, labor, and insurance costs have pressured margins, leading to lower expectations for revenue growth.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. The Company repurchased 632,221 shares for $231.3 million in the first two quarters of 2026 and had an authorized share repurchase program totaling $1.29 billion as of 2026-Q1. The Board also approved an additional $1.0 billion repurchase program in 2026-Q1. The company has consistently executed share repurchases, delivering on its capital allocation commitments.
“During the second quarter of 2026, the Company repurchased and retired 443,917 shares for $156.2 million.”
“During the first quarter of 2026, the Company repurchased and retired 188,304 shares for $75.1 million; Board approved additional $1.0 billion share repurchase program.”
“During the fourth quarter of 2025, the Company repurchased and retired 188,526 shares for $80.0 million.”
“During the third quarter of 2025, the Company repurchased and retired 165,778 shares for $74.7 million.”
“During the second quarter of 2025, the Company repurchased and retired 315,696 shares for $150.0 million.”
“During the first quarter of 2025, the Company repurchased and retired 115,280 shares for $50.0 million.”
“During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Company repurchased and retired 258,568 shares for $112.0 million.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $19.17 in FY 2026
Breaks if: Global net store growth falls below 180 stores in Q1 2026
Drive net store growth internationally and in the U.S. to increase global footprint and retail sales.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Global net store growth ranged from 180 stores in 2026-Q1 to 209 stores in 2026-Q2, with consistent international and U.S. net openings. The company has delivered steady global store expansion, supporting its stated priority to grow its footprint internationally and domestically.
“Global net store growth of 209 stores, including 26 net store openings in the U.S. and 183 net store openings internationally.”
“Global net store growth of 180, including 19 net store openings in the U.S. and 161 net store openings internationally.”
“Global net store growth of 392 for the fourth quarter; 776 for fiscal 2025.”
“Global net store growth of 214, including 29 net store openings in the U.S. and 185 net store openings internationally.”
“Global net store growth of 178, including 30 net store openings in the U.S. and 148 net store openings internationally.”
“Global net store decline of 8, including 17 net store openings in the U.S. and 25 net store closures internationally.”
“Global net store growth of 364 for the fourth quarter; 775 for fiscal 2024.”
Breaks if: U.S. same store sales growth falls below 0.9% in Q1 2026
Continue to grow U.S. market share within the QSR pizza category through order count growth, value initiatives, and store expansion.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. U.S. same store sales growth was +0.9% in 2026-Q1 and +0.1% in 2026-Q2, with global net store growth of 180 and 209 stores respectively. CEO consistently emphasized order count growth and market share gains in the U.S. The trajectory shows continued focus with modest same store sales growth and steady store expansion, delivering on stated market share growth priorities.
“CEO: 'Domino's generated order count growth across delivery and carryout, bringing millions of new customers...'”
“CEO: 'Q1 2026 represented another quarter of positive order count and market share growth for Domino's in the U.S.'”
“CEO: 'In our U.S. business, we gained another point of market share, pacing well ahead of the QSR Pizza category.'”
“CEO: 'We will continue to win and take QSR pizza market share around the world in 2025 and beyond.'”
“CEO: 'In the U.S., both delivery and carryout grew, driving meaningful market share gains within the U.S. pizza QSR category.'”
“CEO: 'Domino's Q1 results demonstrate that our Hungry for MORE strategy continues to drive market share growth in QSR Pizza.'”
“CEO: 'In the U.S., leaning into our pillar of Renowned Value helped us once again generate meaningful market share growth in QSR Pizza.'”
Overall, DPZ is navigating a complex environment but maintains a solid foundation for growth. Not investment advice.
