Dow Inc. (DOW)

NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$29.93+0.91%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dow Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-6.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.68 → 1.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Deliver more than $6 billion in near-term cash and cost support by 2026	Dow is cutting costs and improving cash flow with a $6 billion target by 2026.	Improving	cash and cost support falls below $6 billion by 2026-Q4	Cash from operations: $1.331B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6 billion in cash and cost support. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 24, 20261,331,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful leadership transition to CEO Karen S. Carter	New CEO Karen S.	Improving	Leadership fails to stabilize or improve company performance	Qualitative: 2 consecutive earnings beats (Q1 & Q2 2026) + $500M working capital target Q1/Q2 2026 earnings beats, $500M working capital release target, and portfolio optimization efforts support stable execution. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Return to positive earnings per share	A primary condition in Dow Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $2.8.	Improving	EPS remains negative or below $2.8 in 2026-FY	Diluted EPS: $0.99 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.8. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 20260.99 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3da9c933-7d27-4af1-811c-b2881511b90e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve about 10% revenue growth	A primary condition in Dow Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 9.9% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	revenue growth falls below ~9.9% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 19.68% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 9.9% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 202619.675376 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3da9c933-7d27-4af1-811c-b2881511b90e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.56

$2.01 → $1.56 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$42.56B

$44.08B → $42.56B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.01	$44,081,537,603	9 / 12
2026-07-25	$1.84	$43,324,821,380	17 / 16
2026-07-26	$1.81	$43,362,632,543	9 / 12
2026-07-27	$1.84	$43,282,737,020	17 / 16
2026-07-28	$1.84	$43,282,737,020	17 / 16
2026-07-29	$1.81	$43,362,632,543	9 / 12
2026-07-30	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-07-31	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-01	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-02	$1.84	$43,282,737,020	17 / 16
2026-08-03	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-04	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-05	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-06	$1.84	$43,282,737,020	17 / 16
2026-08-07	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-08	$1.84	$43,282,737,020	17 / 16
2026-08-09	$1.84	$43,282,737,020	17 / 16
2026-08-10	$1.84	$43,282,737,020	17 / 16
2026-08-11	$1.84	$43,282,737,020	17 / 16
2026-08-12	$1.84	$43,282,737,020	17 / 16
2026-08-13	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-14	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-15	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-16	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-17	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-18	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$1.79	$43,262,882,543	9 / 12
2026-08-20	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-08-21	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-08-22	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-08-23	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-08-24	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-08-25	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-08-26	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-08-27	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-08-28	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-08-29	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-08-30	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-09-03	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-09-04	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-09-05	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-09-06	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-09-07	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-09-08	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-09-09	$1.77	$43,254,401,253	9 / 12
2026-09-10	$1.74	$43,237,088,753	9 / 12
2026-09-11	$1.74	$43,237,088,753	9 / 12
2026-09-12	$1.68	$43,168,024,709	9 / 12
2026-09-13	$1.68	$43,168,024,709	9 / 13
2026-09-14	$1.68	$43,168,024,709	9 / 13
2026-09-15	$1.68	$43,168,024,709	9 / 13
2026-09-16	$1.68	$43,154,485,317	9 / 13
2026-09-17	$1.68	$43,154,485,317	9 / 13
2026-09-18	$1.68	$43,154,485,317	9 / 13
2026-09-19	$1.65	$43,073,298,756	9 / 13
2026-09-20	$1.63	$42,809,323,678	9 / 13
2026-09-21	$1.63	$42,809,323,678	9 / 13
2026-09-22	$1.63	$42,809,323,678	9 / 13
2026-09-23	$1.63	$42,809,323,678	9 / 13
2026-09-24	$1.63	$42,809,323,678	9 / 13
2026-09-25	$1.63	$42,809,323,678	9 / 13
2026-09-26	$1.60	$42,748,020,531	9 / 13
2026-09-27	$1.60	$42,748,020,531	9 / 13
2026-09-28	$1.60	$42,748,020,531	9 / 13
2026-09-29	$1.60	$42,748,020,531	9 / 13
2026-09-30	$1.60	$42,748,020,531	9 / 13
2026-10-01	$1.57	$42,685,105,581	9 / 13
2026-10-02	$1.57	$42,685,105,581	9 / 13
2026-10-03	$1.57	$42,685,105,581	9 / 13
2026-10-04	$1.57	$42,685,105,581	9 / 13
2026-10-05	$1.57	$42,685,105,581	9 / 13
2026-10-06	$1.58	$42,689,168,081	9 / 13
2026-10-07	$1.58	$42,689,168,081	9 / 13
2026-10-08	$1.58	$42,689,168,081	9 / 13
2026-10-09	$1.58	$42,689,168,081	9 / 13
2026-10-10	$1.58	$42,689,168,081	9 / 13
2026-10-11	$1.58	$42,689,168,081	9 / 13
2026-10-12	$1.58	$42,689,168,081	9 / 13
2026-10-13	$1.57	$42,562,541,851	9 / 13
2026-10-14	$1.56	$42,562,548,101	9 / 13
2026-10-15	$1.56	$42,562,548,101	9 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	10	1
2026-06-01	8	10	1
2026-07-01	7	10	1
2026-08-01	7	11	1
2026-09-01	6	13	1
2026-10-01	5	13	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 12

$30.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 1 · prior Jul 1

$35.00 → $32.00-8.6%

UBSSep 25 · prior Jul 24

$32.00 → $30.00-6.3%

Deutsche BankSep 17 · prior Apr 27

$40.00 → $32.00-20.0%

$0$22.00$44.00

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Deliver more than $6 billion in near-term cash and cost support by 2026Cash from operations: $1.331B
Return to positive earnings per shareDiluted EPS: $0.99 per share
Achieve about 10% revenue growthRevenue growth: 19.68%

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dow Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a cautious view on a cyclical business in the Materials sector. The current thesis state is mixed, with recent performance underwhelming compared to peers and a focus on operational improvements.

What's priced into Dow Inc.

The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic. DOW's valuation shows a premium compared to peers, suggesting that some challenges are already reflected in its current standing.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain weak in the near term, as recent financial performance has not met industry standards. Management's focus on improving operational EBITDA and optimizing the portfolio suggests a long-term strategy, but execution remains mixed.

What Dow Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate and positively impact the sector. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders and DOW's ability to maintain guidance without credibility loss will be crucial.