Dover Corporation (DOV)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$195.80+0.88%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dover Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.75 → 11.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase adjusted EPS to about $9.0 in FY26	Adjusted EPS guidance is about $9.0 per share, showing earnings strength.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS guidance falls below $8.9 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management has stated this priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EPS guidance was raised from $10.45-$10.65 in 2026-Q1 and 2025-Q4 to $10.55-$10.75 in 2026-Q2. This reflects management's confidence in delivering double-digit adjusted EPS growth, consistent with reported adjusted diluted EPS growth of 12% in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain strong operational performance	A supporting condition in Dover Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income near or above $220M per quarter.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls significantly below $220M per quarter	Operating income: $391.787M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income near or above $220M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 2026391,787,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9036e16c-5dbf-4ca7-9f3e-d1ddde6072a0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Segment earnings margin improved from 22.0% in 2025-Q1 to 24.0% in 2026-Q2, reflecting operational execution and productivity gains offsetting inflation. The trajectory shows delivering on margin expansion commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve revenue growth of 5% to 7% in FY26	A primary condition in Dover Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is 5% to 7% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26	Revenue growth: 6.85% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 5% to 7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20266.851559 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9036e16c-5dbf-4ca7-9f3e-d1ddde6072a0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $8.09B in 2025 to $8.09B+ expected in 2026 with guidance raised to 6%-8% growth (organic 4%-6%) in 2026-Q2, up from 5%-7% in prior quarters. Management is delivering on broad-based growth with all five segments showing positive organic growth in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain valuation discount to peers	A supporting condition in Dover Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is PE below 25, maintaining discount to peer median.	Intact	PE rises above 30 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 19.12x As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 202619.1222 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: DOV:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.74

$11.71 → $11.74 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$9.13B

$9.09B → $9.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.71	$9,089,707,329	12 / 14
2026-07-25	$11.60	$9,081,418,700	18 / 18
2026-07-26	$11.71	$9,093,935,044	12 / 14
2026-07-27	$11.60	$9,081,895,470	18 / 18
2026-07-28	$11.71	$9,093,935,044	12 / 14
2026-07-29	$11.71	$9,093,935,044	12 / 14
2026-07-30	$11.71	$9,092,633,406	12 / 14
2026-07-31	$11.71	$9,092,633,406	12 / 14
2026-08-01	$11.71	$9,092,633,406	12 / 14
2026-08-02	$11.63	$9,086,555,030	18 / 18
2026-08-03	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-04	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-05	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-06	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-07	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-08	$11.63	$9,086,555,030	18 / 18
2026-08-09	$11.63	$9,086,555,030	18 / 18
2026-08-10	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-11	$11.63	$9,086,555,030	18 / 18
2026-08-12	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-13	$11.64	$9,094,668,230	18 / 18
2026-08-14	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-15	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-16	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-17	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-18	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-19	$11.72	$9,095,880,809	12 / 14
2026-08-20	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-08-21	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-08-22	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-08-23	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-08-24	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-08-25	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-08-26	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-08-27	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-08-28	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-08-29	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-08-30	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-08-31	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-01	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-02	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-03	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-04	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-05	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-06	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-07	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-08	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-09	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-10	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-11	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-12	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-13	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-14	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-15	$11.75	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-16	$11.73	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-17	$11.73	$9,114,570,656	12 / 14
2026-09-18	$11.73	$9,118,133,156	12 / 14
2026-09-19	$11.73	$9,118,133,156	12 / 14
2026-09-20	$11.73	$9,118,133,156	12 / 14
2026-09-21	$11.73	$9,118,133,156	12 / 14
2026-09-22	$11.73	$9,118,133,156	12 / 14
2026-09-23	$11.73	$9,118,133,156	12 / 14
2026-09-24	$11.73	$9,118,133,156	12 / 14
2026-09-25	$11.74	$9,119,831,205	12 / 15
2026-09-26	$11.74	$9,119,831,205	12 / 15
2026-09-27	$11.74	$9,119,831,205	12 / 15
2026-09-28	$11.74	$9,119,831,205	12 / 15
2026-09-29	$11.74	$9,119,831,205	12 / 15
2026-09-30	$11.75	$9,125,446,016	12 / 15
2026-10-01	$11.75	$9,127,975,428	12 / 15
2026-10-02	$11.75	$9,127,975,428	12 / 15
2026-10-03	$11.74	$9,130,925,205	12 / 15
2026-10-04	$11.74	$9,130,925,205	12 / 15
2026-10-05	$11.74	$9,130,925,205	12 / 15
2026-10-06	$11.74	$9,130,925,205	12 / 15
2026-10-07	$11.73	$9,128,042,852	12 / 15
2026-10-08	$11.73	$9,128,042,852	12 / 15
2026-10-09	$11.73	$9,128,066,152	12 / 15
2026-10-10	$11.73	$9,128,066,152	12 / 15
2026-10-11	$11.73	$9,128,066,152	12 / 15
2026-10-12	$11.73	$9,128,066,152	12 / 15
2026-10-13	$11.73	$9,128,066,152	12 / 15
2026-10-14	$11.73	$9,128,592,093	12 / 15
2026-10-15	$11.74	$9,134,703,858	12 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	7	1
2026-06-01	13	7	1
2026-07-01	13	5	1
2026-08-01	13	4	1
2026-09-01	14	4	1
2026-10-01	14	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15

$245.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoSep 24

$229.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$134.75$269.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase adjusted EPS to about $9.0 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain strong operational performancePublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve revenue growth of 5% to 7% in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain valuation discount to peersP/E (TTM): 19.12x

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dover Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable growth opportunity in the industrials sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's focus on revenue growth and margin expansion despite some recent challenges.

What's priced into Dover Corporation

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting a cheap valuation compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for improved performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management on track to achieve revenue growth and increased adjusted EPS. However, the recent change in risk label to moderate suggests that investors should be cautious of potential volatility.

What Dover Corporation hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support DOV's growth, but any negative shifts in their performance could pose risks.