Duluth Holdings Inc (DLTH)

Q: What's priced into Duluth Holdings Inc (DLTH) stock?

The valuation model labels expectations as justified, with no fragility flags, while showing DLTH at a premium to peers. Its expectations gap is negative, meaning the evidence points to a gap between current expectations and the model’s view; confidence in that reading is medium.

Q: What does the Duluth Holdings Inc (DLTH) outlook hinge on?

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether DLTH can sustain stronger profitability while stabilizing sales and meeting its fiscal 2026 guidance. Consumer-sector conditions matter too: continued strength from TJX, ROST, and BURL would support the backdrop, while weaker results or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.95-0.50%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Duluth Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-02
Revenue	—	110.92M
EPS	—	-0.315
Annual ending 2027-02-01
Revenue	—	546.82M
EPS	—	-0.12
Annual ending 2028-02-01
Revenue	—	563.83M
EPS	—	-0.025

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Raise fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to $28M-$32M	Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $28M-$32M.	Intact	Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA falls below $28 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised from $26 million-$30 million to $28 million-$32 million for fiscal 2026. Actual Adjusted EBITDA improved significantly, reaching $27.0 million in 2026-Q3 compared to $12.0 million in 2025-Q3, indicating management is delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Keep fiscal 2026 capital expenditures near $12 million	A supporting condition in Duluth Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$12 million.	Intact	Fiscal 2026 capital expenditures exceed $15 million	Capital expenditures: $716,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$12 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 4, 2026716,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 2, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently affirmed fiscal 2026 capital expenditures guidance at approximately $12 million. No detailed quarterly capex spending data is provided, so delivery assessment is limited but consistent reaffirmation indicates stable capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Generate free cash flow of at least $16 million in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow is forecasted at $16M for 2026.	Intact	Fiscal 2026 free cash flow falls below $16 million	Free cash flow: $28.157M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $16 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 4, 202628,157,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 2, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently affirmed fiscal 2026 capital expenditures guidance at approximately $12 million. No detailed quarterly capex spending data is provided, so delivery assessment is limited but consistent reaffirmation indicates stable capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain fiscal 2026 net sales between $540M and $560M	A primary condition in Duluth Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $540 million and <= $560 million.	Intact	Fiscal 2026 revenue falls below $540 million	Revenue: $121.389M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $540 million and <= $560 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 4, 2026121,389,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 2, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 812a4d7c-9eb0-4c57-85bc-862c1bab5b44. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently affirmed the fiscal 2026 net sales guidance range of $540 million to $560 million. Actual quarterly revenues show some decline year-over-year, with $121.4 million in 2026-Q3 down from $131.7 million in 2025-Q3, indicating mixed delivery against the revenue guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	1
2026-06-01	1	1
2026-07-01	1	1
2026-08-01	1	1
2026-09-01	1	2
2026-10-01	0	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Raise fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to $28M-$32MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Keep fiscal 2026 capital expenditures near $12 millionCapital expenditures: $716,000
Generate free cash flow of at least $16 million in fiscal 2026Free cash flow: $28.157M
Maintain fiscal 2026 net sales between $540M and $560MRevenue: $121.389M

Next proof point

Dec 15, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Duluth Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk operating recovery story, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: recent signals improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but the business remains loss-making and recent performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Duluth Holdings Inc

The valuation model labels expectations as justified, with no fragility flags, while showing DLTH at a premium to peers. Its expectations gap is negative, meaning the evidence points to a gap between current expectations and the model’s view; confidence in that reading is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, adjusted EBITDA has improved: it reached $27.0 million in 2026-Q3 versus $12.0 million a year earlier, and management raised its fiscal 2026 guidance range. Sales remain a concern, with 2026-Q3 revenue down year over year, while guidance has been reaffirmed; a guidance cut on the next call is a key risk. A recent earnings beat supports the improving signal, but the litigation filing and elevated overall risk temper it.

What Duluth Holdings Inc hinges on