NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Disney grows earnings about 16% in fiscal 2026. Streaming profit rose $200 million in Q2. Theme parks deliver strong profits with $500 million payout. The stock trades cheap with a PE of 16.5 versus peers near 78.
Disney faces regulatory risks with FCC reviews and legal settlements. Park incidents and financial struggles could hurt growth. Streaming competition pressures margins and cash flow.
The price is about 22% below our fair value near $126. Analysts expect 7% revenue growth. Our fair value is close to the Street median, reflecting moderate optimism.
Breaks if: Repurchases fall below $5 billion in FY26
Target at least $8 billion in share repurchases in fiscal 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent strong financial results and clear management priorities.
The market currently reflects a valuation that is considered cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The valuation has risen recently, indicating some positive sentiment, but it remains justified given the company's execution quality.
Management is on track to achieve double-digit adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth and significant share repurchases. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk of missing estimates due to the high-miss-rate nature of the industry.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support Disney's growth; however, any negative guidance from them could impact Disney's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis of double-digit EPS growth. However, legal actions regarding licenses may affect operations and pose a threat.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: adjusted EPS growth falls below 10% in FY26
Breaks if: FCF falls below $15 billion in FY26
Target at least $8 billion in share repurchases in fiscal 2026.
Breaks if: FCC revokes ABC licenses or imposes major fines in FY26
Breaks if: SVOD operating income increase is less than $100 million in Q2 2026
Overall, Disney's fundamentals appear solid for the next few years, but external factors in the sector could influence its trajectory. Not investment advice.
