DIAGEO PLC (DEO)

NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-10-23

$95.97-0.74%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge DIAGEO PLC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.32 → 5.28 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	10.27B
EPS	—	2.96
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	19.12B
EPS	—	4.988
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	19.22B
EPS	—	5.279

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective cost cuts and job reductions	Cost cuts aim to improve profits despite a tough market.	Intact	Cost cuts fail to stabilize margins or lead to operational issues	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 24, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at or above $6.35 in FY27	A primary condition in DIAGEO PLC's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.35 USD per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $6.35 in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful new product launches like Bulleit 20-year whiskey	New products like Bulleit's 20-year whiskey boost the brand.	Intact	Lack of successful new products weakens brand competitiveness	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 24, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $19.4 billion in FY27	A primary condition in DIAGEO PLC's published investment case. The stated target is ~19.4 USD billion.	Intact	Revenue falls significantly below $19 billion in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$5.28

Unavailable → $5.28 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$19.22B

Unavailable → $19.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$19,729,628,600	2 / 17
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$19,729,628,600	2 / 17
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$19,526,582,090	4 / 19
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$19,752,843,858	3 / 11
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$19,752,843,858	3 / 11
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$19,752,843,858	3 / 11
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$19,752,843,858	3 / 11
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$19,752,843,858	3 / 11
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$19,323,770,921	4 / 11
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$19,323,770,921	4 / 11
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$19,323,770,921	4 / 11
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$19,323,770,921	4 / 11
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$19,323,770,921	4 / 11
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$19,357,894,759	4 / 11
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$19,357,894,759	4 / 11
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$19,357,894,759	4 / 11
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$19,357,894,759	4 / 11
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$19,329,843,397	4 / 11
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$19,329,843,397	4 / 11
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$19,329,843,397	4 / 11
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$19,329,843,397	4 / 11
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$19,329,842,202	4 / 11
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$19,329,842,202	4 / 11
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$19,329,842,202	4 / 11
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$19,307,231,091	4 / 11
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$19,307,231,091	4 / 11
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$19,307,231,091	4 / 11
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$19,307,231,091	4 / 11
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$19,310,013,453	4 / 11
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$19,310,013,453	4 / 11
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$19,310,013,453	4 / 11
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$19,310,013,453	4 / 11
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$19,310,013,453	4 / 12
2026-09-14	$5.25	$19,310,013,453	5 / 12
2026-09-15	$5.31	$19,301,202,127	5 / 12
2026-09-16	$5.31	$19,301,202,127	5 / 12
2026-09-17	$5.31	$19,301,202,127	5 / 12
2026-09-18	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-09-19	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-09-20	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-09-21	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-09-22	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-09-23	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-09-24	$5.32	$19,319,013,810	5 / 12
2026-09-25	$5.32	$19,319,013,810	5 / 12
2026-09-26	$5.32	$19,319,013,810	5 / 12
2026-09-27	$5.32	$19,319,013,810	5 / 12
2026-09-28	$5.32	$19,319,013,810	5 / 12
2026-09-29	$5.32	$19,319,013,810	5 / 12
2026-09-30	$5.32	$19,319,013,810	5 / 12
2026-10-01	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-10-02	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-10-03	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-10-04	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-10-05	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-10-06	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-10-07	$5.32	$19,319,035,460	5 / 12
2026-10-08	$5.32	$19,319,152,574	5 / 12
2026-10-09	$5.32	$19,319,152,574	5 / 12
2026-10-10	$5.32	$19,319,152,574	5 / 12
2026-10-11	$5.32	$19,319,152,574	5 / 12
2026-10-12	$5.32	$19,319,152,574	5 / 12
2026-10-13	$5.32	$19,299,681,008	5 / 12
2026-10-14	$5.31	$19,274,064,302	5 / 12
2026-10-15	$5.31	$19,238,936,986	5 / 12
2026-10-16	$5.28	$19,230,305,747	5 / 12
2026-10-17	$5.28	$19,230,305,747	5 / 12
2026-10-18	$5.28	$19,230,305,747	5 / 12
2026-10-19	$5.28	$19,230,305,747	5 / 12
2026-10-20	$5.28	$19,230,300,274	5 / 12
2026-10-21	$5.28	$19,230,300,274	5 / 12
2026-10-22	$5.28	$19,230,300,274	5 / 12
2026-10-23	$5.28	$19,228,445,077	5 / 12
2026-10-24	$5.28	$19,224,667,299	5 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	3	1
2026-06-01	5	3	1
2026-07-01	5	2	1
2026-08-01	5	3	1
2026-09-01	5	3	1
2026-10-01	5	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective cost cuts and job reductionsQualitative condition
EPS at or above $6.35 in FY27Published status: Broken
Successful new product launches like Bulleit 20-year whiskeyQualitative condition
Revenue near $19.4 billion in FY27Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

DIAGEO PLC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This looks like a consumer-staples business with moderate risk, but the evidence does not support a clear label such as a durable compounder or a turnaround. The thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial history to judge its direction.

What's priced into DIAGEO PLC

The snapshot does not provide valuation or market-expectation evidence, so whether DEO looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. It reports low fragility, meaning no specified warning conditions were triggered, but that does not establish what expectations are reflected in the valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, repeated recent earnings misses and a 42% estimated chance of another miss make execution an important watch point. The evidence does not provide enough results or management guidance to describe the multi-year fundamental trajectory.

What DIAGEO PLC hinges on

Near-term conditions may worsen if the three-month average of monthly job gains, currently +51,000, keeps weakening and recession concerns weigh on consumer-staples companies. Sector support may persist if BUD, STZ, and TAP continue beating earnings and raising guidance; misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.