Dave, Inc. (DAVE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$361.88-3.85%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Dave grows revenue about 26% yearly to over $710 million in 2026. Earnings per share rise to about $16.50. The company repurchases shares, showing strong capital use. Its fintech platform offers modern banking alternatives that attract users.
Growth could slow if user adoption stalls or competition rises. Profit margins might shrink if costs increase. Debt from recent notes could pressure finances if not managed well.
The price is about 6% above our fair value near $359. Analysts expect 26% revenue growth, which matches management's raised guidance. Our fair value is 8% above the Street median, reflecting confidence in growth.
Breaks if: Buybacks stop or significantly reduce
Breaks if: EPS falls below $16.25 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
DAVE represents a growth-oriented investment with a focus on increasing revenue and earnings per share. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial results despite a recent earnings miss.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not overly pessimistic expectations. Valuation is aligned with peers, suggesting that the current market sentiment does not expect significant deterioration in performance.
Management is on track with its priorities, including raising revenue and earnings guidance for 2026. However, there is a near-term risk of missing expectations, given the company's history of erratic earnings surprises.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and avoid cutting guidance. Additionally, external factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and the performance of sector leaders will play a crucial role in shaping DAVE's future.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management has raised the full-year 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $16.25 to $16.75.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $710 million in FY26
Raise full-year 2026 revenue guidance based on strong first-half performance and growth outlook.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $239.7M in first half 2025 to $329.2M in first half 2026. Management raised 2026 full-year revenue guidance twice, from $710-$720M to $725-$735M, reflecting delivering growth trajectory.
“We are raising our full-year 2026 guidance for Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted Diluted EPS.”
“We are raising full-year 2026 guidance across all three metrics.”
“Establishes 2026 Outlook Reflecting Revenue Growth of 25% - 28%.”
Overall, DAVE's fundamentals are strong, but investors should remain cautious due to elevated risks. Not investment advice.