DoorDash (DASH)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$189.15-2.02%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge DoorDash’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.70 → 4.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 27 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 28 to 27; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA grows at least 20% YoY	Profit rises with adjusted EBITDA up 28% to $754 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 20% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage competitive and legal challenges without profit harm	The company manages costs well despite competition and legal risks.	Under Pressure	Profit margins fall significantly due to competition or legal rulings	Qualitative: $131.5M legal settlement + Amazon competition DoorDash settled NYC courier pay case for $131.5M; Amazon entered India market; recent earnings missed expectations. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Deliveroo contributes about $200 million to Adjusted EBITDA	Profit rises with adjusted EBITDA up 28% to $754 million.	Under Pressure	Deliveroo contribution falls well below $150 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Marketplace Gross Order Value grows at least 28% YoY	A primary condition in DoorDash's published investment case. The stated target is >=28% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 28% in FY26	Revenue growth: 35.63% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=28% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202635.627284 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e100af8d-70fb-40fd-8833-be45179e5670. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.71

$4.41 → $4.71 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$21.54B

$21.21B → $21.54B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.41	$21,208,824,920	37 / 43
2026-07-25	$4.41	$21,208,824,920	37 / 43
2026-07-26	$4.49	$21,270,050,323	29 / 33
2026-07-27	$4.41	$21,208,824,920	37 / 43
2026-07-28	$4.41	$21,208,824,920	37 / 43
2026-07-29	$4.41	$21,208,824,920	37 / 43
2026-07-30	$4.41	$21,208,824,920	37 / 43
2026-07-31	$4.49	$21,270,049,394	29 / 33
2026-08-01	$4.49	$21,270,049,394	29 / 33
2026-08-02	$4.49	$21,276,454,156	29 / 33
2026-08-03	$4.41	$21,215,090,270	37 / 43
2026-08-04	$4.49	$21,276,454,156	29 / 33
2026-08-05	$4.49	$21,276,454,156	29 / 33
2026-08-06	$4.49	$21,276,454,156	29 / 33
2026-08-07	$4.54	$21,426,060,327	30 / 33
2026-08-08	$4.41	$21,356,823,730	37 / 43
2026-08-09	$4.41	$21,356,823,730	37 / 43
2026-08-10	$4.41	$21,356,823,730	37 / 43
2026-08-11	$4.46	$21,397,649,310	36 / 43
2026-08-12	$4.54	$21,426,060,327	30 / 33
2026-08-13	$4.54	$21,426,060,327	30 / 33
2026-08-14	$4.54	$21,426,060,327	30 / 33
2026-08-15	$4.54	$21,426,060,327	29 / 33
2026-08-16	$4.54	$21,426,060,327	29 / 33
2026-08-17	$4.54	$21,426,060,327	29 / 33
2026-08-18	$4.54	$21,426,060,327	29 / 33
2026-08-19	$4.54	$21,426,060,327	29 / 33
2026-08-20	$4.63	$21,515,566,639	28 / 33
2026-08-21	$4.56	$21,485,298,652	28 / 33
2026-08-22	$4.55	$21,491,550,946	28 / 33
2026-08-23	$4.55	$21,491,550,946	28 / 33
2026-08-24	$4.55	$21,491,550,946	28 / 33
2026-08-25	$4.70	$21,525,557,482	28 / 33
2026-08-26	$4.70	$21,525,557,482	28 / 33
2026-08-27	$4.70	$21,525,557,482	28 / 33
2026-08-28	$4.70	$21,525,557,482	28 / 33
2026-08-29	$4.70	$21,525,557,482	28 / 33
2026-08-30	$4.70	$21,525,557,482	28 / 33
2026-08-31	$4.70	$21,525,557,482	28 / 33
2026-09-01	$4.70	$21,525,557,482	28 / 33
2026-09-02	$4.70	$21,535,722,675	28 / 33
2026-09-03	$4.70	$21,535,722,675	28 / 33
2026-09-04	$4.70	$21,529,908,611	28 / 33
2026-09-05	$4.70	$21,529,908,611	28 / 33
2026-09-06	$4.70	$21,529,908,611	28 / 33
2026-09-07	$4.70	$21,529,908,611	28 / 33
2026-09-08	$4.70	$21,529,898,169	28 / 33
2026-09-09	$4.70	$21,529,282,380	28 / 33
2026-09-10	$4.70	$21,529,540,434	28 / 33
2026-09-11	$4.70	$21,529,527,632	28 / 33
2026-09-12	$4.70	$21,529,540,152	28 / 33
2026-09-13	$4.70	$21,529,601,648	28 / 32
2026-09-14	$4.70	$21,529,601,648	28 / 32
2026-09-15	$4.70	$21,529,601,648	28 / 32
2026-09-16	$4.70	$21,529,601,648	28 / 33
2026-09-17	$4.69	$21,533,958,101	28 / 33
2026-09-18	$4.69	$21,533,958,101	28 / 33
2026-09-19	$4.69	$21,533,958,101	28 / 33
2026-09-20	$4.69	$21,533,958,101	27 / 32
2026-09-21	$4.69	$21,533,958,101	27 / 32
2026-09-22	$4.69	$21,533,958,101	27 / 32
2026-09-23	$4.70	$21,540,734,148	27 / 32
2026-09-24	$4.70	$21,540,734,148	27 / 32
2026-09-25	$4.70	$21,540,734,148	27 / 32
2026-09-26	$4.70	$21,540,734,148	27 / 32
2026-09-27	$4.70	$21,540,734,148	27 / 32
2026-09-28	$4.70	$21,540,734,148	27 / 32
2026-09-29	$4.70	$21,540,734,148	27 / 32
2026-09-30	$4.70	$21,540,734,148	27 / 32
2026-10-01	$4.70	$21,540,734,148	27 / 32
2026-10-02	$4.70	$21,540,739,148	27 / 32
2026-10-03	$4.70	$21,540,739,148	27 / 32
2026-10-04	$4.70	$21,531,645,632	27 / 32
2026-10-05	$4.70	$21,531,645,632	27 / 32
2026-10-06	$4.71	$21,536,548,071	27 / 32
2026-10-07	$4.71	$21,536,548,071	27 / 32
2026-10-08	$4.71	$21,536,548,071	27 / 32
2026-10-09	$4.71	$21,536,548,071	27 / 32
2026-10-10	$4.71	$21,536,548,071	27 / 32
2026-10-11	$4.71	$21,536,542,101	27 / 32
2026-10-12	$4.71	$21,535,928,382	27 / 32
2026-10-13	$4.71	$21,535,935,918	27 / 32
2026-10-14	$4.71	$21,535,935,918	27 / 32
2026-10-15	$4.71	$21,539,570,065	27 / 32

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	37	10
2026-06-01	36	9
2026-07-01	36	9
2026-08-01	37	10
2026-09-01	36	10
2026-10-01	36	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 36 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 12 · prior Aug 6

$260.00 → $240.00-7.7%

Wells FargoOct 5 · prior Aug 7

$225.00 → $230.00+2.2%

$0$143.00$286.00

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA grows at least 20% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Manage competitive and legal challenges without profit harmPublished status: Under Pressure
Deliveroo contributes about $200 million to Adjusted EBITDAPublished status: Under Pressure
Marketplace Gross Order Value grows at least 28% YoYRevenue growth: 35.63%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

DoorDash outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in Marketplace Gross Order Value and membership programs. The current thesis state indicates a cautious outlook due to recent earnings misses and elevated risks.

What's priced into DoorDash

The market currently prices DASH at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, suggesting that investors expect strong future performance. However, this expectation may not be fully justified given the recent financial performance and the potential for downward revisions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown a robust ability to grow Marketplace Gross Order Value and enhance membership programs, with strong growth reported in recent quarters. However, the company has a history of earnings misses, which adds uncertainty to its near-term performance.

What DoorDash hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to meet or exceed guidance in upcoming earnings calls and the broader economic environment, particularly inflation trends. Additionally, performance from sector leaders like Amazon and Tesla could influence DASH's trajectory.