Crane NXT (CXT)

NYSEInformation TechnologyIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$56.88-2.32%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Crane NXT’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.71 → 4.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	546.68M
EPS	—	1.399
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.92B
EPS	$4.22–$4.42non-GAAP	4.32
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.04B
EPS	—	4.726

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payments at $0.18 per share	A supporting condition in Crane NXT's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.18.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.18 next 4 quarters	Dividend per share: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.18. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ff69f51b-dbe9-460d-91ca-41d8d377f184. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.17 in 2025-Q4 to $0.18 in 2026-Q1 and Q2, reflecting a 6% increase. Management consistently announces and maintains dividend growth, delivering on this capital allocation commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improvement or stabilization	A supporting condition in Crane NXT's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income stabilizes or improves from $22.2M.	Intact	Operating income falls below $20M next 4 quarters	Operating income: $68.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income stabilizes or improves from $22.2M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202668,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ff69f51b-dbe9-460d-91ca-41d8d377f184. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of 15% to 17% in 2026	A primary condition in Crane NXT's published investment case. The stated target is 15% to 17% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 12% in FY26	Revenue growth: 21.96% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 15% to 17% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202621.958457 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ff69f51b-dbe9-460d-91ca-41d8d377f184. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.73

Unavailable → $4.73 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.04B

$2.03B → $2.04B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-07-25	$4.73	$2,039,920,670	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$4.73	$2,039,920,670	6 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-07-28	$4.73	$2,039,920,670	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$4.73	$2,039,920,670	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$4.73	$2,039,920,670	6 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-02	$4.73	$2,039,920,670	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$4.73	$2,039,920,670	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$4.73	$2,039,920,670	6 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-08	$4.74	$2,040,035,840	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$4.74	$2,040,035,840	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$4.74	$2,040,035,840	5 / 6
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-12	$4.70	$2,035,471,640	6 / 6
2026-08-13	$4.70	$2,035,471,640	6 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$2,029,587,334	4 / 5
2026-08-20	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$4.70	$2,035,521,636	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$4.70	$2,035,598,586	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$4.71	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$4.71	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$4.71	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$4.71	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$4.71	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$4.71	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$4.73	$2,040,084,502	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	2
2026-06-01	5	1
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	5	1
2026-09-01	6	1
2026-10-01	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payments at $0.18 per shareDividend per share: $0.18 per share
Operating income improvement or stabilizationOperating income: $68.9M
Revenue growth of 15% to 17% in 2026Revenue growth: 21.96%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Crane NXT outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CXT is a growth-oriented business with some acquisition-driven growth, rather than a low-risk compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and earnings quality is fragile.

What's priced into Crane NXT

The valuation evidence is mixed: CXT is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, and the pricing tag is justified, so the evidence does not point to a clear valuation mismatch.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, recent results and management execution are mixed but broadly steady: second-quarter revenue and operating profit increased year over year, while organic growth was 3% and first-quarter operating profit had dipped. Management remains on track with priorities around growth, margins, and dividend payments, but fragile earnings quality and a history of a deep miss keep risk elevated.

What Crane NXT hinges on

The key near-term test is whether CXT can sustain its recently raised guidance; a reversal would damage management credibility as well as the outlook. Over the multi-year view, continued organic and acquisition-driven growth and margin progress matter, while lower interest rates and strong results from sector peers could provide a favorable backdrop.