CHICAGO RIVET and MACHINE CO (CVR)
AMEXIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$10.00-1.96%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — return to positive free cash flow: TTM OCF -649.5k vs >0% FCF target.
Chicago Rivet is a small North American fastener maker. Analysts expect modest 3% revenue growth. The company has suspended dividends to preserve cash. Its valuation is cheap compared to peers.
The company is loss-making and free cash flow is negative. Revenue growth is slow and the sector faces headwinds. The dividend suspension signals financial stress.
The market expects about 3% revenue growth and prices the stock cheaply versus peers. Our fair value is near $83.79, reflecting modest growth and ongoing losses.
Breaks if: dividend reinstated before profitability returns
Breaks if: free cash flow yield remains negative over next year
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story. CVR is currently loss-making and has a high risk profile, but management is focused on improving production and sales efforts, which could support future growth.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that CVR is seen as cheap compared to its peers. However, the fundamentals suggest that there is limited confidence in the company's ability to improve its financial performance in the near term.
Management's focus on production requirements and sales efforts has led to some revenue growth, but operating income remains negative. The recent financial performance has been weak, and while there is a medium confidence in management's stability, the company still faces significant challenges.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like ATI, MLI, and GPGI. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for CVR. Conversely, any signs of weakness in these companies or a rise in inflation could negatively impact CVR's prospects.
In the next 1 to 3 years, CVR's performance will depend on external sector dynamics and management's ability to execute its plans effectively. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.