CoStar Group (CSGP)

NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$32.31+0.97%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CoStar Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand adjusted EBITDA to $780M-$820M in 2026	Profit expands with adjusted EBITDA rising to around $800 million.	Improving	adjusted EBITDA falls below $700M in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $442M in 2025 to $184M in 2026-Q2 alone, with full year 2026 guidance raised to $780M-$820M. The trajectory shows strong profitability expansion and management is delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve full-year 2026 revenue of $3.78B to $3.82B	A primary condition in CoStar Group's published investment case. The stated target is $3.78B to $3.82B.	Broken	full-year 2026 revenue falls below $3.5B	Revenue: $925M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $3.78B to $3.82B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026925,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0818b903-ae75-4889-baad-73d87f1830fa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete $800M acquisition of Zonda in 2026	The acquisition of Zonda for $800 million broadens market reach in homebuilding.	Improving	Zonda acquisition fails to close or integration stalls beyond 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 disclosures including 2026-Q2 and 2026-08-21 press releases. The acquisition of Zonda, with $170M revenue and 23% Adjusted EBITDA margin in 2025, was completed in August 2026. This strategic move expands CoStar's residential ecosystem and is expected to enhance profitability, showing management is delivering on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$1.78 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$4.27B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.78	$4,268,317,930	19 / 21
2026-07-25	$1.78	$4,266,979,840	19 / 21
2026-07-26	$1.78	$4,264,747,134	13 / 15
2026-07-27	$1.78	$4,266,979,840	19 / 21
2026-07-28	$1.78	$4,266,979,840	19 / 21
2026-07-29	$1.76	$4,227,406,477	12 / 15
2026-07-30	$1.78	$4,269,828,830	18 / 20
2026-07-31	$1.78	$4,269,828,830	18 / 20
2026-08-01	$1.71	$4,134,044,831	13 / 15
2026-08-02	$1.72	$4,140,350,970	20 / 21
2026-08-03	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-04	$1.72	$4,126,222,400	20 / 21
2026-08-05	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-06	$1.73	$4,126,203,350	20 / 21
2026-08-07	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-08	$1.73	$4,126,203,350	20 / 21
2026-08-09	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-10	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-11	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-12	$1.73	$4,126,203,350	20 / 21
2026-08-13	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-14	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-15	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-16	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-17	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-18	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-19	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-20	$1.71	$4,119,209,831	13 / 15
2026-08-21	$1.71	$4,119,156,506	13 / 15
2026-08-22	$1.71	$4,119,156,506	13 / 15
2026-08-23	$1.71	$4,119,156,506	13 / 15
2026-08-24	$1.71	$4,119,156,506	13 / 15
2026-08-25	$1.71	$4,137,904,832	13 / 15
2026-08-26	$1.71	$4,137,904,832	13 / 15
2026-08-27	$1.71	$4,137,904,832	13 / 15
2026-08-28	$1.71	$4,137,904,832	13 / 15
2026-08-29	$1.71	$4,147,454,832	13 / 15
2026-08-30	$1.71	$4,147,454,832	13 / 15
2026-08-31	$1.71	$4,147,454,832	13 / 15
2026-09-01	$1.71	$4,154,292,964	13 / 15
2026-09-02	$1.71	$4,154,292,964	13 / 15
2026-09-03	$1.71	$4,154,292,964	13 / 15
2026-09-04	$1.71	$4,154,292,964	13 / 15
2026-09-05	$1.72	$4,164,512,963	13 / 15
2026-09-06	$1.72	$4,164,512,963	13 / 15
2026-09-07	$1.72	$4,164,512,963	13 / 15
2026-09-08	$1.72	$4,164,512,963	13 / 15
2026-09-09	$1.72	$4,164,512,963	13 / 15
2026-09-10	$1.72	$4,164,512,963	13 / 15
2026-09-11	$1.72	$4,164,512,963	13 / 15
2026-09-12	$1.72	$4,166,509,229	13 / 15
2026-09-13	$1.72	$4,166,509,229	9 / 10
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	4	1
2026-06-01	16	4	1
2026-07-01	16	8	1
2026-08-01	13	8	1
2026-09-01	13	8	1
2026-10-01	12	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Expand adjusted EBITDA to $780M-$820M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve full-year 2026 revenue of $3.78B to $3.82BPublished status: Broken
Complete $800M acquisition of Zonda in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-65.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CoStar Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CSGP represents a growth-oriented investment with a focus on expanding its market presence through acquisitions. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has not matched that of its industry peers.

What's priced into CoStar Group

The market currently prices CSGP at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, reflecting high expectations for future performance. This expensive valuation is not fully justified given the recent financial results and the overall sector headwinds.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its revenue and EBITDA growth targets, with consistent double-digit revenue growth noted. However, there is a low probability of missing guidance, which could negatively impact sentiment.

What CoStar Group hinges on

The thesis hinges on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector bellwethers like CBRE, BEKE, and JLL. Additionally, any potential cuts to guidance would be a significant negative factor.