Salesforce (CRM)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$240.70-2.45%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Salesforce’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

16.11 → 16.07 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 32 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 32 to 32; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete $25 billion accelerated share repurchase	The company plans a $25 billion accelerated share repurchase.	Intact	Failure to execute or significant delay in $25 billion share repurchase	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company entered into accelerated share repurchase agreements totaling $25 billion in 2026-Q4, with upfront delivery of 103 million shares in 2027-Q1 and final settlement expected in 2027-Q2. Management has consistently reiterated this capital allocation priority and is delivering on the announced program. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating cash flow grows 9% to 10% in FY27	Operating cash flow grows 9% to 10% in FY27, supporting financial strength.	Intact	Operating cash flow growth falls below 9% in FY27	Cash from operations: $1.269B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 9% YoY operating cash flow growth in FY27. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 27, 20261,269,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 21% in FY27	A primary condition in Salesforce's published investment case. The stated target is >= 20.9% operating margin in FY27.	Improving	Operating margin falls below 20.9% in FY27	Operating margin: 20.55% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 20.9% operating margin in FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 202620.546496 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b61ab257-f3de-4fca-98e8-5c639915b155. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $46 billion in FY27	Salesforce grows revenue about 11% yearly, reaching $46 billion in FY27.	Improving	Revenue falls below $45.9 billion in FY27	Revenue: $11.345B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $45.9 billion in FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 202611,345,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b61ab257-f3de-4fca-98e8-5c639915b155. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$16.07

$15.63 → $16.07 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$50.87B

$50.43B → $50.87B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$15.63	$50,427,743,508	32 / 39
2026-07-25	$15.63	$50,427,743,508	32 / 39
2026-07-26	$15.63	$50,427,743,508	32 / 39
2026-07-27	$15.63	$50,427,743,508	32 / 39
2026-07-28	$15.63	$50,427,743,508	32 / 39
2026-07-29	$15.63	$50,427,743,508	32 / 39
2026-07-30	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-07-31	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-01	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-02	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-03	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-04	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-05	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-06	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-07	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-08	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-09	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-10	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-11	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-12	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-13	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-14	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-15	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-16	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-17	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 39
2026-08-18	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 40
2026-08-19	$15.63	$50,427,743,856	32 / 40
2026-08-20	$15.63	$50,430,600,725	33 / 41
2026-08-21	$15.63	$50,430,645,744	32 / 40
2026-08-22	$15.63	$50,430,646,442	32 / 40
2026-08-23	$15.63	$50,430,646,442	32 / 40
2026-08-24	$15.63	$50,430,646,442	33 / 41
2026-08-25	$15.63	$50,430,649,507	33 / 41
2026-08-26	$15.63	$50,432,419,869	33 / 41
2026-08-27	$15.63	$50,432,419,869	33 / 41
2026-08-28	$15.94	$50,696,301,071	31 / 39
2026-08-29	$15.94	$50,709,829,786	31 / 39
2026-08-30	$15.94	$50,709,829,786	31 / 39
2026-08-31	$15.94	$50,709,829,786	31 / 39
2026-09-01	$15.98	$50,709,829,786	31 / 39
2026-09-02	$16.03	$50,797,075,093	31 / 40
2026-09-03	$16.03	$50,804,378,243	32 / 41
2026-09-04	$16.08	$50,806,358,243	32 / 41
2026-09-05	$16.10	$50,814,358,243	32 / 41
2026-09-06	$16.11	$50,830,692,084	32 / 41
2026-09-07	$16.11	$50,830,692,084	32 / 41
2026-09-08	$16.11	$50,830,692,084	32 / 41
2026-09-09	$16.11	$50,830,692,152	32 / 41
2026-09-10	$16.11	$50,830,692,152	32 / 41
2026-09-11	$16.11	$50,830,692,152	32 / 41
2026-09-12	$16.11	$50,830,692,152	32 / 41
2026-09-13	$16.11	$50,830,692,152	32 / 41
2026-09-14	$16.11	$50,830,692,152	32 / 41
2026-09-15	$16.11	$50,830,692,152	32 / 41
2026-09-16	$16.11	$50,831,090,269	32 / 41
2026-09-17	$16.11	$50,831,088,939	32 / 41
2026-09-18	$16.09	$50,862,443,253	32 / 38
2026-09-19	$16.09	$50,862,443,253	32 / 38
2026-09-20	$16.09	$50,862,443,253	32 / 38
2026-09-21	$16.09	$50,862,443,253	32 / 38
2026-09-22	$16.10	$50,868,399,237	32 / 38
2026-09-23	$16.10	$50,868,399,237	32 / 38
2026-09-24	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 38
2026-09-25	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 38
2026-09-26	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 38
2026-09-27	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-09-28	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-09-29	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-09-30	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-01	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-02	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-03	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-04	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-05	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-06	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-07	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-08	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-09	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-10	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-11	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-12	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-13	$16.07	$50,868,399,237	32 / 37
2026-10-14	$16.07	$50,870,915,315	32 / 37
2026-10-15	$16.07	$50,870,915,315	32 / 37

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	44	11	2
2026-06-01	43	11	2
2026-07-01	41	13	2
2026-08-01	41	14	2
2026-09-01	40	15	2
2026-10-01	40	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 40 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades13 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 14 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

D.A. DavidsonSep 17 · prior Aug 27

$200.00 → $225.00+12.5%

$0$123.75$247.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete $25 billion accelerated share repurchaseDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating cash flow grows 9% to 10% in FY27Cash from operations: $1.269B
Operating margin near 21% in FY27Operating margin: 20.55%
Revenue grows to about $46 billion in FY27Revenue: $11.345B

Next proof point

Dec 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Salesforce outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance has been strong, although management quality has shown volatility.

What's priced into Salesforce

The market appears to price CRM as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, the valuation is justified given the recent drop in company quality and the potential fragility due to weak execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, supported by management's commitment to revenue and cash flow growth. The near-term risk is low, but there is a history of erratic earnings surprises that could impact future performance.

What Salesforce hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for favorable interest rate changes and continued strong performance from sector peers. Additionally, any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment and expectations.