Camden Property Trust (CPT)

NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-10-15

$98.59+0.41%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Camden Property Trust’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain active share buyback program	A supporting condition in Camden Property Trust's published investment case. The stated target is Continue at-market buybacks through 2026.	Intact	Buyback program is suspended or materially reduced	Buyback program active (qualitative) Headlines confirm buybacks are ongoing and contributing to raised guidance, with no reports of suspension. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS recovers to at least $0.17 in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Camden Property Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.17 USD_PER_SHARE.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.13 in Q2 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.17 USD_PER_SHARE. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 31, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c3085430-4424-4844-bb4e-254387641cf0. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management acknowledged an earnings miss and updated guidance. The actual EPS of $0.40 exceeded the guidance midpoint of $0.24 in 2026-Q1, indicating management's response to address the earnings miss is underway but limited to one quarter so far. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Net income stabilizes above $42M quarterly	A primary condition in Camden Property Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=42.4 million USD quarterly.	Intact	Net income falls below $42M in any quarter	Net income: $18.79M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=42.4 million USD quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202618,790,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c3085430-4424-4844-bb4e-254387641cf0. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management acknowledged an earnings miss and updated guidance. The actual EPS of $0.40 exceeded the guidance midpoint of $0.24 in 2026-Q1, indicating management's response to address the earnings miss is underway but limited to one quarter so far. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Apartment market demand remains stable or improves	A supporting condition in Camden Property Trust's published investment case. The stated target is Stable or improving apartment market through 2026.	Intact	Apartment market weakens causing earnings guidance cuts	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Camden updated its 2026 EPS guidance midpoint from $9.27 in 2025-Q4 to $9.93 in 2026-Q2, while maintaining Core FFO guidance midpoint at $6.75. The trajectory shows management consistently updating guidance reflecting market conditions, delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.56B

$1.58B → $1.56B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,581,176,570	2 / 14
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,582,212,930	2 / 15
2026-07-26	$1.21	$1,582,986,220	5 / 11
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,582,212,930	2 / 15
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,582,212,930	2 / 15
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,582,212,930	2 / 15
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,582,212,930	2 / 15
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,582,212,930	2 / 15
2026-08-01	$1.21	$1,582,245,776	5 / 11
2026-08-02	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 12
2026-08-03	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 12
2026-08-04	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 12
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,563,953,750	2 / 16
2026-08-06	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 12
2026-08-07	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 12
2026-08-08	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 12
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,563,953,750	2 / 16
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,563,953,750	2 / 16
2026-08-11	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 12
2026-08-12	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 12
2026-08-13	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 12
2026-08-14	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 12
2026-08-15	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 9
2026-08-16	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 9
2026-08-17	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 9
2026-08-18	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 9
2026-08-19	$1.21	$1,575,356,158	5 / 9
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,558,102,622	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,558,612,272	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,558,612,921	4 / 7
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,558,612,921	4 / 7
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,558,612,921	4 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,558,612,921	4 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,558,612,921	4 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,558,612,921	4 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,558,398,121	4 / 8
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,558,398,121	4 / 8
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,558,398,121	4 / 8
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,558,398,121	4 / 8
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,558,398,121	4 / 8
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,558,398,121	4 / 8
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,558,384,521	4 / 8
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,558,385,971	4 / 8
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,558,385,971	4 / 8
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,558,385,971	4 / 8
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,558,385,971	4 / 8
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,559,440,286	4 / 8
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,559,520,971	4 / 8
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,559,520,971	4 / 9
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,559,520,971	4 / 9
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,559,520,971	4 / 9
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,558,110,922	4 / 9
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,558,110,922	4 / 10
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,558,110,922	4 / 10
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,558,110,922	4 / 10
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,558,110,922	4 / 10
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,558,110,922	4 / 10
2026-10-01	$1.13	$1,558,110,922	5 / 10
2026-10-02	$1.13	$1,558,110,922	5 / 10
2026-10-03	$1.13	$1,558,111,572	5 / 10
2026-10-04	$1.13	$1,558,111,572	5 / 10
2026-10-05	$1.13	$1,558,111,572	5 / 10
2026-10-06	$1.13	$1,558,111,572	5 / 10
2026-10-07	$1.13	$1,558,111,572	5 / 10
2026-10-08	$1.13	$1,558,111,572	5 / 10
2026-10-09	$1.13	$1,558,111,572	5 / 10
2026-10-10	$1.13	$1,558,111,572	5 / 10
2026-10-11	$1.13	$1,558,111,572	5 / 10
2026-10-12	$1.13	$1,558,111,572	5 / 10
2026-10-13	$1.13	$1,558,111,572	5 / 10
2026-10-14	$1.13	$1,558,311,572	5 / 10
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,558,134,630	4 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	15	2
2026-06-01	8	14	2
2026-07-01	8	15	2
2026-08-01	7	15	2
2026-09-01	7	15	2
2026-10-01	7	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 14 · prior Sep 15

$105.00 → $101.00-3.8%

BarclaysOct 14 · prior Aug 17

$123.00 → $114.00-7.3%

Truist FinancialSep 25 · prior Jun 11

$123.00 → $108.00-12.2%

Evercore ISISep 21 · prior Aug 7

$114.00 → $110.00-3.5%

$0$67.65$135.30

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS recovers to at least $0.17 in Q2 2026Diluted EPS: $0.18 per share
Net income stabilizes above $42M quarterlyNet income: $18.79M
Apartment market demand remains stable or improvesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Camden Property Trust outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with some volatility in management execution. The current thesis state indicates insufficient recent financial performance to draw strong conclusions.

What's priced into Camden Property Trust

The market appears to have priced in a premium compared to peers, indicating expectations of solid performance. However, there is a gap in expectations that suggests some caution among investors.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown a commitment to updating earnings guidance and managing capital allocation effectively. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.

What Camden Property Trust hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential Fed rate cuts that could benefit the real estate sector and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any downward revision in guidance could negatively impact the stock.