Copart (CPRT)

NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$27.87+0.43%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Copart’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.78 → 1.77 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Smooth CEO transition with stable management execution	New leadership is a risk but management is stable.	Under Pressure	significant negative news on CEO transition or guidance cuts	Qualitative: CEO transition executed, but Q4 earnings miss reported CEO transition to Adair completed; Q4 earnings miss and core volume shrinkage reported; ACV acquisition announced. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase operating income to about $464 million	Operating income grows from $426 million to $464 million.	Broken	operating income falls below $426 million	Operating income: $368.904M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $460 million quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 29, 2026368,904,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Operating income declined from $412.6M in 2025-Q4 to $368.9M in 2026-Q4 (-10.6%), with some quarters showing growth such as 2.8% increase in 2026-Q3. Despite management's focus on increasing operating income, the trajectory shows mixed results with recent decline, indicating limited progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain stable revenue near $1.24 billion quarterly	Copart keeps stable revenue near $1.24 billion per quarter.	Improving	quarterly revenue falls below $1.16 billion	Revenue: $1.152B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.23 billion quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 29, 20261,152,439,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Revenue showed modest growth from $1.125B in 2025-Q4 to $1.152B in 2026-Q4 (+2.4%), with some quarterly fluctuations including a dip in 2026-Q2. Management's focus on maintaining stable revenue is reflected in this generally stable to slightly growing revenue trajectory, indicating delivery with some variability. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$1.77

Unavailable → $1.77 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$5.25B

Unavailable → $5.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	$1.82	$5,085,433,333	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$1.82	$5,085,433,333	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$1.82	$5,085,433,333	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$1.82	$5,085,433,333	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$1.82	$5,085,433,333	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$1.82	$5,085,433,333	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$1.81	$5,097,655,400	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$1.78	$5,140,486,167	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$1.78	$5,140,486,167	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$1.78	$5,140,486,167	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$1.78	$5,140,486,167	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$1.78	$5,156,308,000	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$1.77	$5,116,144,500	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$1.78	$5,245,269,500	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$1.78	$5,245,269,500	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$1.78	$5,245,269,500	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$1.78	$5,245,269,500	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$1.78	$5,245,269,500	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$1.78	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$1.77	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$1.77	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$1.77	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$1.77	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$1.77	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$1.77	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$1.77	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$1.77	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$1.77	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$1.77	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$1.77	$5,245,294,500	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	5	1
2026-06-01	8	5	1
2026-07-01	7	5	1
2026-08-01	8	5	1
2026-09-01	8	5	1
2026-10-01	7	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

HSBCSep 16

$36.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$19.80$39.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Smooth CEO transition with stable management executionPublished status: Under Pressure
Increase operating income to about $464 millionPublished status: Broken
Maintain stable revenue near $1.24 billion quarterlyRevenue: $1.152B

Next proof point

Nov 19, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Copart outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on maintaining stable revenue. The current thesis state is intact, despite recent earnings misses and mixed operating income results.

What's priced into Copart

The market appears to price CPRT as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the current valuation is justified and not overly sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on maintaining stable revenue, which has shown modest growth. However, operating income has declined, suggesting challenges in improving profitability, with elevated risk factors affecting the broader sector.

What Copart hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CTAS, RBA, and ROL. If they continue to perform well, it could support CPRT's growth, but any signs of weakness could negatively impact its trajectory.