Corpay (CPAY)

Q: What's priced into Corpay (CPAY) stock?

The market seems to assume high expectations for CPAY, reflected in its expensive valuation compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may be pricing in more favorable outcomes than what has been delivered recently.

Q: What does the Corpay (CPAY) outlook hinge on?

The thesis hinges on key factors such as management's ability to maintain growth targets and the overall performance of the Financials sector. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy could significantly affect CPAY's performance.

NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-15

$399.84-1.57%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Corpay’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

31.43 → 31.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Corpay delivers meaningful EPS growth, at least 20% in 2026	A primary condition in Corpay's published investment case. The stated target is >=20% YoY EPS growth.	Intact	EPS growth falls below 20% in FY26	Diluted EPS growth: -7.04% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026-7.035176 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ab56fe84-5b80-4d46-b2d9-61571768e8e3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Adjusted net income per diluted share increased from $5.36 in 2024-Q4 to $7.00 in 2026-Q2, with guidance raised to 28% growth for full year 2026. Management is delivering meaningful EPS growth consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Corpay achieves at least 14% annual revenue growth	A primary condition in Corpay's published investment case. The stated target is >=14% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 14% in FY26	Revenue growth: 21.49% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202621.485713 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ab56fe84-5b80-4d46-b2d9-61571768e8e3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stock price remains within 15% above our fair value	A supporting condition in Corpay's published investment case. The stated target is <=15% above our fair value.	Intact	Price rises more than 15% above or falls below fair value by 15%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$31.47

$30.59 → $31.47 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.78B

$5.82B → $5.78B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$30.59	$5,820,191,090	15 / 15
2026-07-25	$30.60	$5,822,418,290	15 / 15
2026-07-26	$30.60	$5,822,418,290	15 / 15
2026-07-27	$30.60	$5,822,418,290	15 / 15
2026-07-28	$30.60	$5,822,418,290	15 / 15
2026-07-29	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-07-30	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-07-31	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-08-01	$30.61	$5,818,813,600	12 / 12
2026-08-02	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-08-03	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-08-04	$30.61	$5,818,813,600	11 / 12
2026-08-05	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-08-06	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-08-07	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-08	$31.10	$5,781,498,190	15 / 15
2026-08-09	$31.10	$5,781,498,190	15 / 15
2026-08-10	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-11	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-12	$31.24	$5,779,737,090	15 / 15
2026-08-13	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-14	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-15	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-16	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-17	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-18	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-19	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-20	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-21	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-22	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-23	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-24	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-25	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-26	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-27	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-28	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-29	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-30	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-31	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-09-01	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-09-02	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-09-03	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-04	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-05	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-06	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-07	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-08	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-09	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-10	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-11	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-12	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-13	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-14	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-15	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-16	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-17	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-18	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-19	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-20	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-21	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-22	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-23	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-24	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-25	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-26	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-27	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-28	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-29	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-30	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-10-01	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-02	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-03	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-04	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-05	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-06	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-07	$31.47	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-08	$31.47	$5,777,923,434	11 / 12
2026-10-09	$31.47	$5,778,217,184	11 / 12
2026-10-10	$31.47	$5,778,217,184	11 / 12
2026-10-11	$31.47	$5,778,217,184	11 / 12
2026-10-12	$31.47	$5,778,217,184	11 / 12
2026-10-13	$31.47	$5,778,217,184	11 / 12
2026-10-14	$31.47	$5,778,731,965	11 / 12
2026-10-15	$31.47	$5,778,731,965	11 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	3
2026-06-01	12	3
2026-07-01	12	3
2026-08-01	12	3
2026-09-01	13	3
2026-10-01	13	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Corpay delivers meaningful EPS growth, at least 20% in 2026Diluted EPS growth: -7.04%
Corpay achieves at least 14% annual revenue growthRevenue growth: 21.49%
Stock price remains within 15% above our fair valueDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Corpay outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state is cautious, given the mixed signals from management execution and sector performance.

What's priced into Corpay

The market seems to assume high expectations for CPAY, reflected in its expensive valuation compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may be pricing in more favorable outcomes than what has been delivered recently.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are on track, with management achieving double-digit organic revenue growth and meaningful adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing future targets, which could impact investor confidence.

What Corpay hinges on

The thesis hinges on key factors such as management's ability to maintain growth targets and the overall performance of the Financials sector. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy could significantly affect CPAY's performance.

Bottom line

In the next 1 to 3 years, CPAY faces challenges from high valuation and sector headwinds, despite strong management execution. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$31.47

$30.59 → $31.47 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.78B

$5.82B → $5.78B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$30.59	$5,820,191,090	15 / 15
2026-07-25	$30.60	$5,822,418,290	15 / 15
2026-07-26	$30.60	$5,822,418,290	15 / 15
2026-07-27	$30.60	$5,822,418,290	15 / 15
2026-07-28	$30.60	$5,822,418,290	15 / 15
2026-07-29	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-07-30	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-07-31	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-08-01	$30.61	$5,818,813,600	12 / 12
2026-08-02	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-08-03	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-08-04	$30.61	$5,818,813,600	11 / 12
2026-08-05	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-08-06	$30.59	$5,818,801,300	15 / 15
2026-08-07	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-08	$31.10	$5,781,498,190	15 / 15
2026-08-09	$31.10	$5,781,498,190	15 / 15
2026-08-10	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-11	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-12	$31.24	$5,779,737,090	15 / 15
2026-08-13	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-14	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-15	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-16	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-17	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-18	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-19	$30.96	$5,799,472,642	11 / 12
2026-08-20	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-21	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-22	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-23	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-24	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-25	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-26	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-27	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-28	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-29	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-30	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-08-31	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-09-01	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-09-02	$31.23	$5,779,139,303	11 / 12
2026-09-03	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-04	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-05	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-06	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-07	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-08	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-09	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-10	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-11	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-12	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-13	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-14	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-15	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-16	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-17	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-18	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-19	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-20	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-21	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-22	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-23	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-24	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-25	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-26	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-27	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-28	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-29	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-09-30	$31.43	$5,777,943,096	12 / 12
2026-10-01	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-02	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-03	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-04	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-05	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-06	$31.43	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-07	$31.47	$5,777,923,434	12 / 12
2026-10-08	$31.47	$5,777,923,434	11 / 12
2026-10-09	$31.47	$5,778,217,184	11 / 12
2026-10-10	$31.47	$5,778,217,184	11 / 12
2026-10-11	$31.47	$5,778,217,184	11 / 12
2026-10-12	$31.47	$5,778,217,184	11 / 12
2026-10-13	$31.47	$5,778,217,184	11 / 12
2026-10-14	$31.47	$5,778,731,965	11 / 12
2026-10-15	$31.47	$5,778,731,965	11 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings