Coherent Corp. (COHR)

NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$232.90-7.06%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Coherent Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.07 → 14.15 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Grow AI datacenter & communications revenue to $1.36B by 2026-Q3	A primary condition in Coherent Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.36B.	Under Pressure	AI datacenter revenue falls below $969M by 2026-Q3	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.58B in 2026-Q1 to $2.05B in 2026-Q4, with datacenter & communications segment revenue increasing from $968.7M in 2025-Q3 to $1.36B in 2026-Q1. Management consistently emphasizes capacity expansion and technology leadership to capture AI datacenter growth, and the financials show delivering growth aligned with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve EPS of $1.62 in 2026-Q2	A supporting condition in Coherent Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.62.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.52	Diluted EPS: $1.19 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.62. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 14, 20261.19 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain gross margin near 40% in 2026-Q2	Gross margin improved to 37.7%, near guidance.	Under Pressure	Gross margin falls below 37%	Gross margin: 38.47% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= 39% and <= 41%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 14, 202638.474701 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve total revenue of $1.806B by 2026-Q3	A primary condition in Coherent Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.806B.	Under Pressure	Total revenue falls below $1.498B by 2026-Q3	Revenue: $2.046B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.806B. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 14, 20262,045,500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$14.15

Unavailable → $14.15 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$14.67B

$13.43B → $14.67B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$13,434,724,516	3 / 11
2026-08-18	$13.26	$13,434,724,516	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$13.26	$13,434,724,516	10 / 13
2026-08-20	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	8 / 13
2026-08-21	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-08-22	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-08-23	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-08-24	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-08-25	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-08-26	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-08-27	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-08-28	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-08-29	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-08-30	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-08-31	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-09-01	$14.05	$14,577,090,118	9 / 13
2026-09-02	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	9 / 13
2026-09-03	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-04	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-05	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-06	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-07	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-08	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-09	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-10	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-11	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-12	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-13	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-14	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-15	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-16	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-17	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-18	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-19	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-20	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-21	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-22	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-23	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-24	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-25	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-26	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-27	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-28	$14.07	$14,583,918,445	10 / 14
2026-09-29	$14.07	$14,583,916,700	10 / 14
2026-09-30	$14.07	$14,672,677,295	10 / 14
2026-10-01	$14.16	$14,672,678,979	11 / 15
2026-10-02	$14.16	$14,672,678,979	11 / 15
2026-10-03	$14.16	$14,672,678,979	11 / 15
2026-10-04	$14.16	$14,672,678,979	11 / 15
2026-10-05	$14.16	$14,672,678,979	11 / 15
2026-10-06	$14.16	$14,672,677,295	11 / 15
2026-10-07	$14.16	$14,672,677,295	11 / 15
2026-10-08	$14.16	$14,672,677,295	11 / 15
2026-10-09	$14.14	$14,659,254,545	11 / 15
2026-10-10	$14.14	$14,659,254,545	11 / 15
2026-10-11	$14.14	$14,659,254,545	11 / 15
2026-10-12	$14.14	$14,659,254,545	11 / 15
2026-10-13	$14.14	$14,659,256,229	11 / 15
2026-10-14	$14.14	$14,659,257,887	11 / 15
2026-10-15	$14.15	$14,666,784,202	11 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	17	5
2026-06-01	18	5
2026-07-01	18	5
2026-08-01	18	5
2026-09-01	19	5
2026-10-01	19	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinSep 30

$350.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$192.50$385.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Grow AI datacenter & communications revenue to $1.36B by 2026-Q3Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve EPS of $1.62 in 2026-Q2Diluted EPS: $1.19 per share
Maintain gross margin near 40% in 2026-Q2Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve total revenue of $1.806B by 2026-Q3Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Coherent Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on AI datacenter growth. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has slipped and risks remain elevated.

What's priced into Coherent Corp.

The market currently assumes an expensive valuation, reflecting a premium compared to peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that the market has priced in some growth potential but may not fully account for risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued revenue growth driven by AI datacenter demand, as management is on track with their priorities. However, there is a near-term risk of guidance cuts, which could negatively impact expectations.

What Coherent Corp. hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any changes in guidance from COHR could significantly impact market sentiment.