Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)

NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$39.66+0.13%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cinemark Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+4.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.61 → 2.72 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	885.46M
EPS	—	0.492
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.66B
EPS	—	2.617
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.72B
EPS	—	2.719

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.09 per share	It keeps paying dividends at $0.09 per share.	Intact	dividend falls below $0.09 per share in next 4 quarters	Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: quarterly dividend >= $0.09 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published May 1, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 14d3c915-4cb3-439c-be17-c3aa47daa52c. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduce net loss and improve profitability	The company is reducing losses, cutting net loss from $38.9M to $6.4M.	Intact	net loss worsens beyond -$6.4M in next 4 quarters	Net income: $139.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net loss less negative than -$6.4M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026139,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth above $3.1B in FY26	A primary condition in Cinemark Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.115B total revenue in FY26.	Intact	total revenue falls below $3.1B in FY26	Revenue: $1.086B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.115B total revenue in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261,086,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total revenue grew from $540.7 million in 2025-Q1 to $643.1 million in 2026-Q1 (+18.9%), and reached $1.73 billion in first half 2026, up 16.8% year-over-year. FY 2025 revenue was $3.1 billion, highest post-pandemic. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth aligned with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.72

$2.45 → $2.72 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.72B

$3.59B → $3.72B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.45	$3,594,026,070	10 / 10
2026-07-25	$2.45	$3,594,026,070	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$2.45	$3,594,026,070	10 / 10
2026-07-27	$2.45	$3,594,026,070	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$2.45	$3,594,026,070	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$2.42	$3,607,459,962	9 / 9
2026-07-30	$2.46	$3,599,906,070	10 / 10
2026-07-31	$2.55	$3,644,018,339	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$2.55	$3,644,018,339	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$2.67	$3,659,618,280	8 / 10
2026-08-03	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	7 / 9
2026-08-04	$2.67	$3,659,618,280	8 / 10
2026-08-05	$2.64	$3,663,208,280	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$2.64	$3,663,208,280	10 / 10
2026-08-07	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.64	$3,663,208,280	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$2.64	$3,663,208,280	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	7 / 9
2026-08-11	$2.64	$3,663,208,280	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$2.64	$3,663,208,280	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$2.64	$3,663,208,280	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$2.59	$3,662,750,339	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$2.60	$3,667,160,423	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$2.61	$3,670,154,589	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$2.61	$3,670,154,589	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$2.61	$3,670,154,589	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$2.61	$3,670,154,589	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$2.61	$3,670,154,589	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$2.61	$3,670,154,589	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$2.61	$3,670,154,589	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$2.61	$3,670,154,589	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$2.61	$3,670,754,589	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$2.61	$3,677,263,851	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$2.62	$3,683,138,851	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$2.62	$3,683,138,851	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$2.62	$3,683,138,851	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$2.62	$3,683,138,851	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.62	$3,683,138,851	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.65	$3,694,930,768	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.69	$3,706,524,768	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.69	$3,706,524,768	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.69	$3,706,524,768	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.69	$3,706,524,768	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.69	$3,706,524,768	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.69	$3,706,524,768	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.71	$3,714,474,767	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.71	$3,714,474,767	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.71	$3,714,474,767	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.71	$3,714,474,767	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.72	$3,716,647,723	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	2	1
2026-06-01	8	2	1
2026-07-01	8	4	1
2026-08-01	7	5	0
2026-09-01	6	5	0
2026-10-01	6	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Roth CapitalOct 23 · prior Jul 30

$40.00 → $45.00+12.5%

$0$24.75$49.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.09 per shareDividend per share: $0.09 per share
Reduce net loss and improve profitabilityNet income: $139.4M
Sustain revenue growth above $3.1B in FY26Revenue: $1.086B

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cinemark Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical recovery thesis, with recent revenue growth and improved profitability supporting the case. The thesis is on watch, and the overall signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Cinemark Holdings, Inc.

CNK is described as expensive versus peers, while the valuation evidence also identifies it as cheap versus peers, so the relative-value picture is inconsistent. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and the priced-in assessment says expectations are justified with low fragility rather than showing a broad stack of execution and market risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, revenue growth has tracked management’s stated priority, and profitability has improved, though its status remains mixed. Near term, the risk assessment is elevated; recent performance is below the industry cohort, and the evidence notes a history of missing across recent quarters despite a recent earnings beat.

What Cinemark Holdings, Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative for the thesis. The favorable case depends in part on lower interest rates and continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as NFLX, DIS, and WBD.