Compass Minerals International, Inc. (CMP)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$25.63-0.62%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Compass Minerals keeps adjusted EBITDA near $212M-$236M in 2026. Revenue is expected around $1.02B in 2025. The company is expanding with a new lithium facility, supporting growth. Efficiency gains may improve profits.
Revenue is expected to shrink about 15% next year. The stock trades at a high PE of 57.75 versus peers at 21.44. Profit margins could weaken and growth may stall.
The price is about 12% below our fair value near $33. The market expects about 15% revenue decline. Our view is cautious but sees potential if EBITDA and growth targets hold.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $212M in FY26
Breaks if: No margin improvement or margin decline over next 4 quarters
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on operational improvements in the Salt and Plant Nutrition segments. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been mixed and there are elevated risks in the near term.
The market appears to have a stretched valuation with a premium compared to peers. There is a moderate expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating some level of improvement in performance.
Management is focused on operational improvements, particularly in the Plant Nutrition segment, which has shown positive growth. However, the Salt segment has faced challenges, and there is a low probability of missing guidance, although recent earnings results have been mixed.
The thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain or raise Adjusted EBITDA guidance and improve operational performance. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and the performance of sector peers will be crucial in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company maintained and raised its full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance. However, there was a recent earnings miss that poses challenges for achieving guidance.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Facility delays or fails to contribute to growth by FY27
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1B in FY25
In the next 1 to 3 years, CMP's performance will depend on management's execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.