Compass Minerals International, Inc. (CMP)

NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$21.27+1.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Compass Minerals International, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	383.77M
EPS	—	0.418
FY 2026 · Annual
Capital expenditure	$90M–$110M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.33B
EPS	—	1.255
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.39B
EPS	—	1.702

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA between $212M and $236M in 2026	Compass Minerals keeps adjusted EBITDA near $212M-$236M in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $212M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Efficiency gains improve margins and cost structure	Efficiency gains may improve profits.	Intact	No margin improvement or margin decline over next 4 quarters	Qualitative: EBITDA guidance maintained at $212M-$236M Earnings beat estimates; full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance maintained at $212M-$236M; JPMorgan downgrade cited volume concerns, not margin failure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful ramp of new lithium extraction facility	The company is expanding with a new lithium facility, supporting growth.	Improving	Facility delays or fails to contribute to growth by FY27	Facility planned (May 2026), no operational data vs FY27 target May 2026 news confirms facility plan. No recent reports of delays or failure to contribute to growth. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $1.02B in 2025	A primary condition in Compass Minerals International, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.02B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1B in FY25	Revenue: $215.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.02B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026215,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0c0e72c3-52c8-40ec-9f39-1230e4c066ad. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	2	1
2026-06-01	2	2	0
2026-07-01	2	2	0
2026-08-01	2	2	1
2026-09-01	2	1	1
2026-10-01	2	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA between $212M and $236M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue near $1.02B in 2025Revenue: $215.3M

Next proof point

Nov 23, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Compass Minerals International, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CMP is an operational-improvement story, with a loss-making earnings profile and elevated risk. The long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though execution remains uneven.

What's priced into Compass Minerals International, Inc.

The valuation is stretched, at a premium to peers, and the evidence points to a meaningful expectations gap. The market appears to be allowing for a re-rating, while low fragility suggests the setup is not especially vulnerable to concentrated risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven: Plant Nutrition improved, but Salt operating income declined because of higher costs, and CMP had a recent earnings miss. Management raised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance in the second quarter and is on track with capital spending, but the sector backdrop is a headwind and risk remains elevated.

What Compass Minerals International, Inc. hinges on

The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would add pressure, while continued delivery toward the 2026 guidance would support the operating-improvement case. Over the multi-year view, progress in Salt and Plant Nutrition matters, as does whether sector bellwethers continue to report strong results and guidance.

Bottom line

The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact but execution-sensitive, with a stretched valuation and mixed segment performance. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.